Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[jhamps10]

ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD
RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS THE LOW MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

From 10:30 AFD. NO TD 4 tonight folks, which did not suprise me one bit. I'll expect we see it by 5AM advisory though if it keeps developing like it is right now.

[Cyclone1]

11 AM at the earliest now... I am wondering if this will ever get named

Uhh.. 5am?

[jeff]

Something to talk about of somewhat serious concern this evening in the tropical Atl. I will leave it to the powers to be to continue to determine if 90L is in fact a TD...not sure what the big deal is when the upgrade is made as it is in the middle of nowhere. Anyhow, the global consensus is in amazing agreement that 90L will in fact develop and track toward the W to WNW. GFS is very fast with the system putting it in a very threatening position at the end of its forecast cycle for you GOM folks. Models are in general tight clustering for a track toward the eastern Car. Islands with an eventual threat. This includes the GFDL, GFS, CMC, HWRF...NOGAPS seems to be having some issuing keeping the system going as well as the EURO. Feel the respect of the GFDL and for what it is worth the GFS I agree with their respected tracks. Large scale ridging is forecast to build westward over the SW ATL north of 90L as S Plains heat ridge builds E toward the SE US coast in the Day 7-10 period. Weak troughing shown in the GFS along the E coast does not look deep enough to influence the track nor result in a recurve. Feel a mid August climo track of a Cape Verde hurricane below a strong sub-tropical high places the entire Caribbean at risk. Would even go as far as saying the GOM could be threatened based on the upper air patten set up, but too many things can go wrong such as Hispnola and Cuba and any interactions with central America as well as an unforseen digging of the E US trough and slower lifting out of that trough which would result in a more poleward track.

As far as intensity is concerned...once it gets past its organizational stage...seems fairly straightforward. A slow but steady intensification as it approaches the island...possibly to cat 1 intensity and then once in the Caribbean all bets are off both for rapid intensification and weakened based on the track and any landmass interactions.

Alright back to the debate...is it a TD or not. FWIW I agree with 57...wait till first light

[TheShrimper]

When does school start???

[hurricanefloyd5]

ok i want my crow grilled not fried!!!!!

[RL3AO]

Still Code Red

[weatherguru18]

School starts the 27th for me.

[windstorm99]

It will be interesting for sure to see what the system in the caribbean will do as far as 90L's future track in the coming days.

[ALhurricane]

Still Code Red

Does the Department of Homeland Security know about this scale? They would be proud.

No shock in the decision to hold off on classification. Visible imagery will tell all tomorrow.

[ConvergenceZone]

11 AM at the earliest now... I am wondering if this will ever get named

Uhh.. 5am?

That is a possibility, but it's also possible that the wave doesn't survive the easterly shear and we wake up in the morning to not much of anything left. I'm not saying it WILL happen, but I've seen it happen too many times when I and everyone else was convinced it wouldn't....

[Aquawind]

It will be interesting for sure to see what the system in the caribbean will do as far as 90L's future track in the coming days.

Ummm like yeaaaa no doubt Adrian.. I don't think much though..

[astrosbaseball22]

5 or 11 which is 4 or 10 here....


i think it will be a TD in the next 24 hours

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I totally agree with the westly movement of this system; at least for the next 36-48 hours. A very strong subtropical high has set up to it north. This is as I said above can be bad for organizion to...At least intill it gets out pass 40 west. In which time the eastly shear could weaken enough to allow for development. Most hurricane and global models do show a westward movement over the next 72-96 hours...As it moves at the leeward/windward islands. Really for the next 24 hours don't expect fast development.

It would not suprize me if the eastly shear killed it. With allowing dry air and some SAL into the LLC. Like Iris 2005. Yeah maybe not like Iris. Maybe more like 96 and 99L. But the overall set up is much better and much more favorable for development then those systems.

[Tropics Guy]

NHC played it conservative tonite, but with the system being days away from the islands, there is no pressure for them to upgrade. Morning visible pics will tell the story, then they'll upgrade. Personally I think it's already a depression, with the LLC developing under the deep convection.

TG

[destruction92]

Something to talk about of somewhat serious concern this evening in the tropical Atl. I will leave it to the powers to be to continue to determine if 90L is in fact a TD...not sure what the big deal is when the upgrade is made as it is in the middle of nowhere. Anyhow, the global consensus is in amazing agreement that 90L will in fact develop and track toward the W to WNW. GFS is very fast with the system putting it in a very threatening position at the end of its forecast cycle for you GOM folks. Models are in general tight clustering for a track toward the eastern Car. Islands with an eventual threat. This includes the GFDL, GFS, CMC, HWRF...NOGAPS seems to be having some issuing keeping the system going as well as the EURO. Feel the respect of the GFDL and for what it is worth the GFS I agree with their respected tracks. Large scale ridging is forecast to build westward over the SW ATL north of 90L as S Plains heat ridge builds E toward the SE US coast in the Day 7-10 period. Weak troughing shown in the GFS along the E coast does not look deep enough to influence the track nor result in a recurve. Feel a mid August climo track of a Cape Verde hurricane below a strong sub-tropical high places the entire Caribbean at risk. Would even go as far as saying the GOM could be threatened based on the upper air patten set up, but too many things can go wrong such as Hispnola and Cuba and any interactions with central America as well as an unforseen digging of the E US trough and slower lifting out of that trough which would result in a more poleward track.

As far as intensity is concerned...once it gets past its organizational stage...seems fairly straightforward. A slow but steady intensification as it approaches the island...possibly to cat 1 intensity and then once in the Caribbean all bets are off both for rapid intensification and weakened based on the track and any landmass interactions.

Alright back to the debate...is it a TD or not. FWIW I agree with 57...wait till first light

So let me guess, the east coast of the U.S. is safe?
Is it accurate to rule out an east coast storm 10 days in advance?
We all know the limitations of global model forecasting 100 hours + in advance.

[MGC]

Considering the extent of ridging in the Atlantic extending into the SE USA, and the apparent 20KT forward speed of the disturbance, I'm having flashback to Hurricane Allen in 1980. Now I'm not saying 90L is going to turn into another Allen, but the simularity in potential track is there. I expected the NHC to hold off in upgrading until a few first light Sat pictures to see if the LLC has caught up with the convection. Looks like we will have a long track CV storm in the next day or two....MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If it go's into the caribbean then the Gulf is targetted. If it go's north of the islands there is to many troughs and the tutt is fairly strong. So the east coast is fairly safe.

[vacanechaser]

NHC played it conservative tonite, but with the system being days away from the islands, there is no pressure for them to upgrade. Morning visible pics will tell the story, then they'll upgrade. Personally I think it's already a depression, with the LLC developing under the deep convection.

TG

yep... since it is so far from anywhere, they are in no hurry... have plenty of time at this point... it may, i say may be upgraded tomorrow morning, maybe near 8am once there is enough to look at on visible... "" me on that...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[RL3AO]

If we could pick this up and set it in the Gulf or West Caribbean, would the NHC have upgraded it at 11?

[vacanechaser]

If it go's into the caribbean then the Gulf is targetted. If it go's north of the islands there is to many troughs and the tutt is fairly strong. So the east coast is fairly safe.

now thats just to bold to make that statement... way to early to even consider making that statement about the east coast... just a foolish and silly statement.. things change quickly and there is no way of knowing this far out.. trough?? last i checked here in va, we had a huge high in place with temps near or over 100 all last week and the same forecast for this coming week...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team