ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

I think it is interesting to see two things here:

1. a cold pool has developed in the west Pac instead of more warm anomalies.
2. Fairly nice cold pool holding strong on eastern side of Pacific, right off of South America.

Seems to fit nicely with idea of weak El Nino conditions by the fall - probably centered in C Pacific. Does not seem to be any solid evidence of this so-called "Super El Nino".

The only problem with that is these are near surface anomalies, there is no cold water source. Certainly not from the PDO. Not very deep water at all. To last and be sustained (cold or warm) you must have depth to it otherwise normal thunderstorms and/or winds can easy flip.



This was 2 months ago before any warmth was seen and you had cold pools with depth support. It's gone.



Buoys shows it very well. There is very little in the way of cool anomalies, it is being pushed. 1-2C+ is popping up in the WPAC (you can see it on the animation posted by cycloneye as well).

[Ntxw]

A checked back a little further. Actually all the way back to 1950 and the statistics stay the same. Between 1950 and 1990 80% of all El Nino PDO+ years have had a landfall hurricane on gulf coast. Between 1990 and present 80% of all El Nino PDO+ years have had a landfall hurricane on Gulf Coast. The total number of named storms in these years are well below normal except for 1953, 2002, 2004 but it also appears that during these events that the threat of Gulf Coast landfalls may be higher. Out of the 15 years since 1950 that have been El Nino PDO+ only 1976,1982, and 1991 did not have a Gulf Coast Landfall Hurricane. From 1950 to 1990 during El Nino PDO+ years it has turned out to be El Nino Modoki 50% of the time. From 1990 to present during El Nino PDO+ events it has been El Nino Modoki 80% of the time. From 1950 to present during El Nino Modoki years there has been a Gulf Coast landfall hurricane 88.89% of the time with the only exception since 1950 being 1991.

Very god stuff. I'd like to see the ACE totals for such years resulting in Modoki and traditional Nino averages. Compared to Neutral and La Nina.

[stephen23]

A checked back a little further. Actually all the way back to 1950 and the statistics stay the same. Between 1950 and 1990 80% of all El Nino PDO+ years have had a landfall hurricane on gulf coast. Between 1990 and present 80% of all El Nino PDO+ years have had a landfall hurricane on Gulf Coast. The total number of named storms in these years are well below normal except for 1953, 2002, 2004 but it also appears that during these events that the threat of Gulf Coast landfalls may be higher. Out of the 15 years since 1950 that have been El Nino PDO+ only 1976,1982, and 1991 did not have a Gulf Coast Landfall Hurricane. From 1950 to 1990 during El Nino PDO+ years it has turned out to be El Nino Modoki 50% of the time. From 1990 to present during El Nino PDO+ events it has been El Nino Modoki 80% of the time. From 1950 to present during El Nino Modoki years there has been a Gulf Coast landfall hurricane 88.89% of the time with the only exception since 1950 being 1991.

Very god stuff. I'd like to see the ACE totals for such years resulting in Modoki and traditional Nino averages. Compared to Neutral and La Nina.

Even gets a little more interesting. Out of all the 15 El Nino PDO+ years since 1950 27% of the time there has been a cat3 or higher make landfall on Gulf coast. Those years being 1957,1965, 2002, 2004. Also.... I was only accounting for Gulf Coast landfalls in my research. If you count all U.S. landfalls you can mark 1991 off of that list because there was a cat 1 landfall on East Coast taking the U.S. landfall total to 87% of all years since 1950 that were El Nino PDO+. We had a close call in 1976 as well. There was a major hurricane that headed up east coast but got downgraded to TS just before landfall in Long Island New York. If that hurricane would have kept hurricane status then it to would have been marked off the list taking the total to 93.33% percent of all years that were El Nino PDO+ having U.S. hurricane landfall.

[Florida1118]

A checked back a little further. Actually all the way back to 1950 and the statistics stay the same. Between 1950 and 1990 80% of all El Nino PDO+ years have had a landfall hurricane on gulf coast. Between 1990 and present 80% of all El Nino PDO+ years have had a landfall hurricane on Gulf Coast. The total number of named storms in these years are well below normal except for 1953, 2002, 2004 but it also appears that during these events that the threat of Gulf Coast landfalls may be higher. Out of the 15 years since 1950 that have been El Nino PDO+ only 1976,1982, and 1991 did not have a Gulf Coast Landfall Hurricane. From 1950 to 1990 during El Nino PDO+ years it has turned out to be El Nino Modoki 50% of the time. From 1990 to present during El Nino PDO+ events it has been El Nino Modoki 80% of the time. From 1950 to present during El Nino Modoki years there has been a Gulf Coast landfall hurricane 88.89% of the time with the only exception since 1950 being 1991.

Very god stuff. I'd like to see the ACE totals for such years resulting in Modoki and traditional Nino averages. Compared to Neutral and La Nina.

Even gets a little more interesting. Out of all the 15 El Nino PDO+ years since 1950 27% of the time there has been a cat3 or higher make landfall on Gulf coast. Those years being 1957,1965, 2002, 2004. Also.... I was only accounting for Gulf Coast landfalls in my research. If you count all U.S. landfalls you can mark 1991 off of that list because there was a cat 1 landfall on East Coast taking the U.S. landfall total to 87% of all years since 1950 that were El Nino PDO+. We had a close call in 1976 as well. There was a major hurricane that headed up east coast but got downgraded to TS just before landfall in Long Island New York. If that hurricane would have kept hurricane status then it to would have been marked off the list taking the total to 93.33% percent of all years that were El Nino PDO+ having U.S. hurricane landfall.

Really good research, awesome job. It will definitely be interesting to see how things turn out...

[Hurricane Jed]

Even gets a little more interesting. Out of all the 15 El Nino PDO+ years since 1950 27% of the time there has been a cat3 or higher make landfall on Gulf coast. Those years being 1957,1965, 2002, 2004. Also.... I was only accounting for Gulf Coast landfalls in my research. If you count all U.S. landfalls you can mark 1991 off of that list because there was a cat 1 landfall on East Coast taking the U.S. landfall total to 87% of all years since 1950 that were El Nino PDO+. We had a close call in 1976 as well. There was a major hurricane that headed up east coast but got downgraded to TS just before landfall in Long Island New York. If that hurricane would have kept hurricane status then it to would have been marked off the list taking the total to 93.33% percent of all years that were El Nino PDO+ having U.S. hurricane landfall.[/quote]


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All ... canes.html. Lists Belle's landfall in 1976 as a Cat 1 in NY.

[Ntxw]

Posted by one of our WPAC friends before, here's a visual of the rainfall pattern. Drought is currently encompassing and growing over Indonesia, Malay Peninsula, the Philippines, and Northern Australia with forest and brush fires a big concern. These are regions that suffer the greatest during a +ENSO event as convection is pushed over the Pacific and keeps the Maritime Continent under persistent subsidence. Tahiti has been wet while Darwin is growing drought likely a result of and also influence of -SOI.

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI update up to -7.1.

20140211,20140312,-7.1

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Posted by one of our WPAC friends before, here's a visual of the rainfall pattern. Drought is currently encompassing and growing over Indonesia, Malay Peninsula, the Philippines, and Northern Australia with forest and brush fires a big concern. These are regions that suffer the greatest during a +ENSO event as convection is pushed over the Pacific and keeps the Maritime Continent under persistent subsidence. Tahiti has been wet while Darwin is growing drought likely a result of and also influence of -SOI.

Yup, it has been dry here, but, it has been wet here since yesterday. Our farms here suffer a lot during ENSO-positive events. As of now, there were early forest fires in some Haiyan-devastated areas and droughts all over the country, although, we benefit as most storms move away and spare us, instead of forming near us, they form east of us and usually move poleward, as the West Pac high moves over SE Asia.

[dexterlabio]

That is not always the case though. 1972, 1982, 1983, 2004, 2006, and 2009...they were all pretty bad years as many intense cyclones directly affected SE Asia and Japan and some of them were devastating (STY Bess, Parma, Ketsana, Xangxane, Durian, Cimaron, to name a few..) Those are El Nino years...

[cycloneye]

A new MJO pulse is now in the Indian Ocean and as it moves eastward it will make a new WWB that will reinforce the warm pool at sub-surface.

[Ntxw]

Look at this. Nino 3 and eastern 3.4 is about to heat up it's coming nothing to stop it now!



Evident between 120W and 90W along the equator and north.

[cycloneye]

Here we go!

[Kingarabian]

Look at this. Nino 3 and eastern 3.4 is about to heat up it's coming nothing to stop it now!

[img][/img]

Evident between 120W and 90W along the equator and north.

[img]

[cycloneye]

30 day SOI down to -7.5.

20140212,20140313,-7.5

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

Hey cycloneye, I watched Levi Cowan's hurricane season forecast. Interesting his top analogs that fit with winter to summer were 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1994. The first three set of years is even better since they were -PDO eras overall. These were all strong moderate or strong El Nino's.

[Kingarabian]

Hey cycloneye, I watched Levi Cowan's hurricane season forecast. Interesting his top analogs that fit with winter to summer were 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1994. The first three set of years is even better since they were -PDO eras overall. These were all strong moderate or strong El Nino's.

Do you think we will finally see sustained +1.0 SST's?

[Ntxw]

Hey cycloneye, I watched Levi Cowan's hurricane season forecast. Interesting his top analogs that fit with winter to summer were 1957, 1963, 1972, 1982, 1994. The first three set of years is even better since they were -PDO eras overall. These were all strong moderate or strong El Nino's.

Do you think we will finally see sustained +1.0 SST's?

The sub-surface supports it. Nothing above is really fighting it and it's starting early. Known fact the sooner in the year things get going to greater the Nino's tend to be. We'll see, the big years get their first 0.5C+ in April for trimonthlies.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

That is not always the case though. 1972, 1982, 1983, 2004, 2006, and 2009...they were all pretty bad years as many intense cyclones directly affected SE Asia and Japan and some of them were devastating (STY Bess, Parma, Ketsana, Xangxane, Durian, Cimaron, to name a few..) Those are El Nino years...

Was 1990 an El Nino year? We got hit by Super Typhoon Ruping [Mike] then, and that season was unusually active.

[Ntxw]

As our casual mod from this thread likes to say, images speak for themselves. Lots of heat waiting to be unleashed.

First half of 2009


2014

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All ENSO regions are warming significantly, except for 1+2 which is currently going down.