2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AlphaToOmega]

I'm not sure how this may play into tropical activity in the first half of Oct, but this is about as warm as it has ever been for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not for FL and the SE US specifically) in the first half of October. Any feelings on the implications?

https://i.imgur.com/DqFDiSC.png

Other seasons with active Octobers:





Patters are all over the place. However, there is weak correlation between October activity and CONUS temperatures.


The CFSv2 and CanSIPS show somewhat similar patterns. However, I would not use this to support an active or inactive October.

[Category5Kaiju]

In case we do get a late season major somewhere in the basin, does anybody know if SailDrone will dispatch a drone into the storm's eye? They got some wicked good footage in Sam, so I am wondering if they'll be doing it again this season

[gatorcane]

I'm not sure how this may play into tropical activity in the first half of Oct, but this is about as warm as it has ever been for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not for FL and the SE US specifically) in the first half of October. Any feelings on the implications?

https://i.imgur.com/DqFDiSC.png

Other seasons with active Octobers:
https://i.postimg.cc/fWBzfgZB/0-Twbb-E-ni8.png
https://i.postimg.cc/3Jq3P4kG/9-Xf-Fy6-Nx-Pg.png
https://i.postimg.cc/j2gRqCvG/Rq-Upnr9ll-O.png
https://i.postimg.cc/QxCX4kds/u-KB4mdtpy-G.png

Patters are all over the place. However, there is weak correlation between October activity and CONUS temperatures.
https://i.postimg.cc/v89jQ429/24-218-246-161-273-13-48-2.gif

The CFSv2 and CanSIPS show somewhat similar patterns. However, I would not use this to support an active or inactive October.
https://i.postimg.cc/MGCD4DSL/cansips-T2ma-namer-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/hG6ynn9p/cfs-mon-01-T2ma-namer-1.png

Here in Florida, the rainy season seems to have shut down a few weeks earlier than it is usually does. Not sure if that is an indicator or not as far as the season shutting down early for Florida (it also started later than it usually does with sub 70 dew points into June). With a La Niña and above normal SSTs across the Caribbean, one would think a big storm could develop there though this month. Until a meaningful push of cooler air moves into Florida which doesn’t look like it will happen for a while, the Caribbean will bear watching for possible Florida threat.

[AlphaToOmega]

The JMA shows rising air over the Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean; and sinking air over the Pacific. Could this mean that activity could continue into December?

[Category5Kaiju]

The JMA shows rising air over the Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean; and sinking air over the Pacific. Could this mean that activity could continue into December?
https://i.postimg.cc/8CF5c2Y7/Y202109-D0800-gl0.png

December activity is extremely hard to predict months in advance; it is almost as if it is random to a certain extent. Years like 2005, 2003, 2013, and 1975 had storms form in December; those years had very little in common with each other. We'll see what happens, but given December is usually a shear-rampant month throughout the basin, December NS formation is not guaranteed in any given year

[gatorcane]

The JMA shows rising air over the Atlantic, Africa, and the Indian Ocean; and sinking air over the Pacific. Could this mean that activity could continue into December?
https://i.postimg.cc/8CF5c2Y7/Y202109-D0800-gl0.png

December activity is extremely hard to predict months in advance; it is almost as if it is random to a certain extent. Years like 2005, 2003, 2013, and 1975 had storms form in December; those years had very little in common with each other. We'll see what happens, but given December is usually a shear-rampant month throughout the basin, December NS formation is not guaranteed in any given year

I would say doubtful for December but November activity particularly the Caribbean is certainly possible.

[abajan]

Mark mentions this thread, and a couple of its specific posts.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/1IJS6S02cPk[/youtube]

[Hammy]

For what it is worth, cast your eyes to the Gulf of Mexico. Still extremely skeptical of model runs 600+ hours out , but if there is indeed a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico during late October, you could thank the CFSv2 for warning you.

https://i.postimg.cc/BvTczqPH/21102600-0100.gif

Go figure the model starts doing the opposite of what I've been discussing, now that I've been discussing it

https://i.imgur.com/V27UsPz.png
https://i.imgur.com/rCODgxq.png

Were this model (and the site in general) higher resolution, these would likely both be hurricanes (if not a major in the western Caribbean), though it's inadvisable to focus on the dates shown. I have to wonder now if the model was recalibrating it's focus so to speak, as it had previously been showing an active MDR during October (largely weaker shorter-lived storms)--something that has no longer been the case in recent weeks.

Now to see if this is a trend or not, as I generally check the entire week at once on a weekly basis.

If anyone wants a "different" site for the CFS model, which goes out to 768 hours on their site - give Pivotal Weather a try. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

Much better site, but also demonstrates how poor the resolution is (presumably the case with any climate model) with Sam initializing at 997mb.

[WiscoWx02]

Go figure the model starts doing the opposite of what I've been discussing, now that I've been discussing it

https://i.imgur.com/V27UsPz.png
https://i.imgur.com/rCODgxq.png

Were this model (and the site in general) higher resolution, these would likely both be hurricanes (if not a major in the western Caribbean), though it's inadvisable to focus on the dates shown. I have to wonder now if the model was recalibrating it's focus so to speak, as it had previously been showing an active MDR during October (largely weaker shorter-lived storms)--something that has no longer been the case in recent weeks.

Now to see if this is a trend or not, as I generally check the entire week at once on a weekly basis.

If anyone wants a "different" site for the CFS model, which goes out to 768 hours on their site - give Pivotal Weather a try. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=cfs&p=prateptype_cat&fh=loop&r=na&dpdt=&mc=

Much better site, but also demonstrates how poor the resolution is (presumably the case with any climate model) with Sam initializing at 997mb.

Very true. As Mark said in his daily video update, it's a very fuzzy look ahead. I mean, there are definitely a few areas of interest there that catch my attention. Guess that's enough to be concerned about especially if it shows a near cat 5 hurricane only being a moderate strength tropical storm at initialization.

[AlphaToOmega]

Retrospective of September 2021:

9 storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes formed. The month featured a high quantity of storms, and it featured many quality storms, namely Larry and Sam. Moreover, it helped 2021 exceed the above-average ACE threshold of 126.1. Typically the average hurricane season features 8 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane by September 30. As of now, this hurricane season is featuring tropical cyclogenesis at twice the climatologically average rate; ACE is also 50% of the mean by September 30.

Because of near-record-breaking SSTs in the MDR, an impending La Niña, a cooler-than-average PDO, and a generally warm Atlantic, the background state was favorable for September 2021. Plus, velocity potential patterns were favorable this month, featuring rising air in the Afro-Eurasia and sinking air in the Pacific Ocean and the Americas. Despite a theoretically unfavorable MJO phase, the African Standing Wave kept the North Atlantic active through the month of September.

Despite the high amount of activity, there were no major impacts from any hurricanes during the month of September. Unlike August 2021, which featured both major hurricanes forming in the Western Atlantic, September 2021 featured both major hurricanes forming in the MDR near Cape Verde.

[storminabox]

I'm not sure how this may play into tropical activity in the first half of Oct, but this is about as warm as it has ever been for the eastern 3/4 of the CONUS overall (though not for FL and the SE US specifically) in the first half of October. Any feelings on the implications?

https://i.imgur.com/DqFDiSC.png

Other seasons with active Octobers:
https://i.postimg.cc/fWBzfgZB/0-Twbb-E-ni8.png
https://i.postimg.cc/3Jq3P4kG/9-Xf-Fy6-Nx-Pg.png
https://i.postimg.cc/j2gRqCvG/Rq-Upnr9ll-O.png
https://i.postimg.cc/QxCX4kds/u-KB4mdtpy-G.png

Patters are all over the place. However, there is weak correlation between October activity and CONUS temperatures.
https://i.postimg.cc/v89jQ429/24-218-246-161-273-13-48-2.gif

The CFSv2 and CanSIPS show somewhat similar patterns. However, I would not use this to support an active or inactive October.
https://i.postimg.cc/MGCD4DSL/cansips-T2ma-namer-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/hG6ynn9p/cfs-mon-01-T2ma-namer-1.png

Here in Florida, the rainy season seems to have shut down a few weeks earlier than it is usually does. Not sure if that is an indicator or not as far as the season shutting down early for Florida (it also started later than it usually does with sub 70 dew points into June). With a La Niña and above normal SSTs across the Caribbean, one would think a big storm could develop there though this month. Until a meaningful push of cooler air moves into Florida which doesn’t look like it will happen for a while, the Caribbean will bear watching for possible Florida threat.

Wouldn’t say that yet. Got some very heavy thunderstorms in S Fl today. Don’t think it’ll end until we get a really solid cold front to move in here.

[tolakram]

Mark mentions this thread, and a couple of its specific posts.

https://youtu.be/1IJS6S02cPk

Yay, Hammy and the CFS got mentioned.

[Ubuntwo]

Hazelton is thinking development a little later
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1444097408401616899

[WiscoWx02]

Hazelton is thinking development a little later
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1444097408401616899

This seems far more realistic. Coincides with that second peak regarding climatology as well as when the MJO rolls in. Joe Bastardi sure as heck thinks big things are coming. Can't lie, those JMA predictions are a bit ominous

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1443623528893501441

[chaser1]

Hazelton is thinking development a little later
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1444097408401616899

This seems far more realistic. Coincides with that second peak regarding climatology as well as when the MJO rolls in. Joe Bastardi sure as heck thinks big things are coming. Can't lie, those JMA predictions are a bit ominous

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1443623528893501441/photo/1

It goes against my grain but I'm gonna have to give a fist-bump to Joe on this one

[AlphaToOmega]

For whatever this could possibly be worth, the CFSv2 continues to show the signal of a major hurricane in late October. On this run, the date is shifted from October 26 to October 20. However, we should take 400+ hour runs with mountains of salt.

[Category5Kaiju]

[Shell Mound]

I think we will likely see at least one more major hurricane, but not before the second half of October. As most of its October impacts occur early in the month, peninsular Florida may well escape additional threats. Nevertheless, I am concerned about a 1932-, Michelle-, or Paloma-type major that develops over the Western Caribbean in late October or early November and misses FL but impacts the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the Bahamas before heading OTS. I just don't foresee a Wilma- or Michael-type threat to FL this year, but we shall see.

[Teban54]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

Imagine if we actually get a sub-900 mb storm.

[Category5Kaiju]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

Imagine if we actually get a sub-900 mb storm.

It's been 16 years since that last happened, and given how we have only had 5 recorded Atlantic hurricane years with a 900 mbar or lower storm (1935, 1969, 1980, 1988, and 2005), this just shows you a testament of how extraordinarily hard and rare it is to get one in a given year. Not really banking on it happening again this year just because of how rare it is and the near-perfect conditions needed to exist at the right time and place to get a sub-900 storm, although if you ask me, a very powerful October hurricane in the West Atlantic may still be in the cards.