Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Aric Dunn]

12z cmc
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Eyewall]

Look like it shows a storm in the pacific heading into the caribbean. I do not believe that modle run.

[KWT]

Looks like if it does develop like the models show its going to be at one point very close to land indeed, I think its going to have a hard time really getting going until it can get away from the Yucatan region, i seem to recall a system in 2005 at the start which was like that as well it had a hard time till the center reformed further east.

Still the 12z GFS is an interesting run and alot of models are now developing something and I agree that there may be broad circulation starting to form just in the EPAC, moisture slowly gets taken northwardsd with it and once its in the Caribbean something gets going.

Can't see why this run couldn't happen to be honest?

[Eyewall]

Tropical storm cindy is the one the comes to mind in 2005 and once it got away from land it became a cat 1 hurricane before making landfall in New Orleans.

[Vortex]

12Z NOGAPS rolling in and appears to really like the carribean disturbance on this run!

H+120

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=120

[Eyewall]

Looks like it is showing a very well organised disturbance.

[KWT]

Looks like the nogaps model develops a rather lop-sided tropical cyclone, wouldn't like to make a guess at possible strength simply because the resolution is honestly not good enough to make a good guess with.

The 2 I'm most curious about is UKMO and the ECM model, if they are onboard then it may be time to take a good look at past storms that have developed in that region between say the 1st-15th of June.

[Aric Dunn]

180 hr

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/d ... slp&loop=1

[KWT]

Very interesting indeed and the situation it develops is pretty typical for June along with the track. Also that confirms the lop-sided nature of the system, not surprising given the amount of dry air present in the Gulf and Caribbean.

[Opal storm]

Guess all eyes on the Yucatan/SW Caribbean area next several days.

[JonathanBelles]

Guess all eyes on the Yucatan/SW Caribbean area next several days.

I'm no where close to eliminating the chances for an EPAC system either.

[boca]

180 hr

Aric is that model available to the public since it says unclassified?

[Aric Dunn]

Guess all eyes on the Yucatan/SW Caribbean area next several days.

I'm no where close to eliminating the chances for an EPAC system either.

i just really dont find an east pac system very interesting... ]

[Aric Dunn]

180 hr

Aric is that model available to the public since it says unclassified?

of course
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=180

[boca]

I agree unless an EPAC system develops and moves NE and holds together by a miracle it really doesn't get my attention to much because they form there and move west out to sea and fizzle.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the main page
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html

[Opal storm]

Well ofcourse nobody cares about an EPAC storm because they don't hit Florida.

[boca]

Well ofcourse nobody cares about an EPAC storm because they don't hit Florida.

Ha Ha Ha Very funny!

[Stratosphere747]

Well in this case the energy is most likely going to come from the EPAC. So for the time being the focus should be there if everyone is looking for something to move into the Caribbean. Not the norm, but it does happen.