Possible development east of Lesser Antilles,model runs here

[Sanibel]

Not saying anyone is wrong, but I don't see it.

[Aric Dunn]

Not saying anyone is wrong, but I don't see it.

well the waves are present and the low was visible earlier.. but still its not at all really organized but we mostly have very good model consensus.. so it needs to be watched..

[cycloneye]

The 00z run of GFS is starting to roll in.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

42 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif Low near 40w moving west.

66 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif Low passes 40w moving west.

96 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif Low at 47w moving west.

108 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif Low at 49w moving west.

120 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif Low at 51w moving west.

138 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif Low at 56w moving westnorthwest.

162 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif Low Just east of Guadeloupe,moving westnorthwest.

168 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif Low over NE Caribbean islands,moving westnorthwest.

Wel,the almost rest of run came out so what I will do is to post the loop.No GOM.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cristobal

Bal=Ball. I think this storm will be a small ball with a small eye in the middle when it reaches its peak. Do you think so?

[Hurricaneman]

<My best guess is it will form, but location of possible landfall or being a fish I don't know but anyone from New Foundland to mexico cant be cleared as of yet

[ROCK]

I would agree....no sense in looking for potential landfall expectations until a LLC forms and at what lat. Two recurves this early in the season IMO, are not likely.

[Ed Mahmoud]

<My best guess is it will form, but location of possible landfall or being a fish I don't know but anyone from New Foundland to mexico cant be cleared as of yet

Colombia (Caribbean island of San Angel) to New Foundland at this point.

[ROCK]

<My best guess is it will form, but location of possible landfall or being a fish I don't know but anyone from New Foundland to mexico cant be cleared as of yet

Colombia (Caribbean island of San Angel) to New Foundland at this point.

true based on one run of the GFS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks a lot less impressive on IR satellite than it did about six hours ago...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks a lot less impressive on IR satellite than it did about six hours ago...

That is why I'm not excited for development as of yet. Even when or if it doe's develop we have to watch Bertha, if it is doing a loop at that time it could form a weakness in the ridge in recurve this.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks a lot less impressive on IR satellite than it did about six hours ago...

That is why I'm not excited for development as of yet. Even when or if it doe's develop we have to watch Bertha, if it is doing a loop at that time it could form a weakness in the ridge in recurve this.

12Z Euro lost it from previous runs, but 0Z GFS and Canadian still have it, GFS with system at 180 hours North of Puerto Rico and sensing a small weakness North of the Bahamas that might keep it away from land, Canadian into the Caribbean, so it seems more likely than not, and it looked good today, but I see almost nothing now on satellite. Canadian had a weak system on this run, and usually the Canadian develops everything into big storms. If the 0Z Euro matches the 12Z Euro and doesn't really develop this wave, than my doubt will increase.


The GFS has done pretty well lately, but other than pilot and ship reports and satellite data, that part of the world seems data sparse, so I always wonder how the models can predict cyclogenesis with any great accuracy.

[cheezyWXguy]

Dont be so sure everyone. IMO, it looks like this wave/low near 30W will move west, eventually merging with the moisture around 38W, probably sometime tomorrow or monday. Remember, this has been completely void of convection all day, except that one burst to its NW earlier. Also, there is likely more of a swirl than meets the eye. IR can not easily show a low level cloud swirl, so this is likely going undetected as we speak and need to wait for visibles tomorrow morning.

[Wx_Warrior]

Just curious....Why would 2 recurves be highly unlikely?

[Scorpion]

The EC shows it again, in a weak state

[Derek Ortt]

this is not supposed to develop today; thus, no surprise it looks unimpressive

[cycloneye]

Its invest 94L so thread is locked.