2015 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

ACE is going up fast.

25.1225

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area could form over the weekend a few hundred miles
south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for subsequent slow
development of the system while it moves toward the north or
northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area could form over the weekend or early next week a
few hundred miles south of the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system while it moves toward the northwest or
north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area is likely to form over the weekend or early next
week a few hundred miles south of the coasts of El Salvador and
Guatemala. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for
gradual development of this system while it moves toward the
northwest or north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

What a start on the ACE front as 2015 beat the rest by far.

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area is expected to form over the weekend or early
next week a few hundred miles south of the coasts of El Salvador and
Guatemala. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally
conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves
toward the northwest or north.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC SST's in May highest on record. Make that five months in a row. Old record shattered by .4 of .4 a degree, in 1959

2015 23.775 23.811 24.167 25.251 25.677

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/da ... Timeseries

[Yellow Evan]

A low pressure area is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles south or south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are generally expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this system while it moves northwestward or
northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

A large area of low pressure is expected to form early next
week a few hundred miles south or south-southeast of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Thereafter, upper-level winds appear conducive for
gradual development of this system while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

Both GFS and ECMWF are more stronger with future Carlos.

[Yellow Evan]

12z Euro has a hurricane

[Kingarabian]

Man. I could use a break after Carlos.

I think it's very likely we'll go 3 for 3 for major hurricanes if shear isn't much of an issue,

[Yellow Evan]

Man. I could use a break after Carlos.

I think it's very likely we'll go 3 for 3 for major hurricanes if shear isn't much of an issue,

This could run into land and stay a hurricane/TS. Models aren't that bullish.

[cycloneye]

A large area of low pressure is expected to form during the next
day or two a few hundred miles south or south-southeast of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, upper-level winds appear conducive for
gradual development of this system while it moves slowly
northwestward or northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS doesn't show much.

[Kingarabian]

Man. I could use a break after Carlos.

I think it's very likely we'll go 3 for 3 for major hurricanes if shear isn't much of an issue,

This could run into land and stay a hurricane/TS. Models aren't that bullish.

Thinking it'll take a little while to get going and thus drift west.

[Yellow Evan]

Man. I could use a break after Carlos.

I think it's very likely we'll go 3 for 3 for major hurricanes if shear isn't much of an issue,

This could run into land and stay a hurricane/TS. Models aren't that bullish.

Thinking it'll take a little while to get going and thus drift west.

Eh, models have been on to the Central America situation for days, and while those things often get delayed, the don't usually start drifting west.

[Yellow Evan]

CFS shows some hints next week, but keeps the second half of June pretty quiet.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS