Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[TheStormExpert]

ECMWF essentially a copy of 2015.. dead south of 25n not sure I by that though. Wow so tired of these extremely pessimistic outlooks from various models and agencies wake up when this nightmare over.

And in 2015 we saw our first Major Hurricane in the Tropical Atlantic in 4 years along with a very rare hurricane hit on the Cape Verde Islands. I'd say 2015 over-achieved the expectations most were expecting. This year COULD see even a little more if condtitions improve just a little at least.

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
May NMME slightly better for Atlantic hurricane season. Stronger/quicker Nina & larger Carib-EPAC SSTA differential:

[TheStormExpert]

Gulf of Mexico and East Coast may need to watch out!

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
The top 5 analogs for the summer NMME forecast have the following average TC track density anomaly:

[WPBWeather]

Gulf of Mexico and East Coast may need to watch out!

Levi Cowan
‏@TropicalTidbits
The top 5 analogs for the summer NMME forecast have the following average TC track density anomaly:

http://i64.tinypic.com/atjsp.jpg

Yes, that seems to be a growing consensus.

[Alyono]

Also hawaii

[Hurricaneman]

Another analog that pops up is a 2004\2005 hybrid, thats a low end analog but the tracks seem to favor those areas and what I do see simiar to 2005 is the MDR was mostly no great shakes but it took until farther west for systems to grow so we could see a lesser version of 2005 with a few major landfalls but as we all know things could change since 1998 is lowering as an analog due to cooling in the ENSO 1\2\3 which is something 1998 didnt have

My top analog might be 1985 due to a coming La Nina and the fact that many storms may wait until west of 50W before developing

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Also hawaii

To a lesser extent. Especially when compared to the last two season.

[SFLcane]

Most development in subtropics if ECMWF is right novascotia Newfoundland Bermuda could hsve a busy yr.

[WPBWeather]

Most development in subtropics if ECMWF is right novascotia Newfoundland Bermuda could hsve a busy yr.

If its us or them, I vote for them. Phil K says in Wash Post East coast hits will stay low, others-just as good as he-say otherwise. Who really knows.

[TheStormExpert]

Here's the link to that article.

Do warm waters off of the East Coast imply an increased hurricane threat?
https://t.co/VKLd84w471

[tarheelprogrammer]

Quick question. When does Shear typically relax to its lowest point in the Atlantic? June, July, August, September, or October?

[TheAustinMan]

Quick question. When does Shear typically relax to its lowest point in the Atlantic? June, July, August, September, or October?

Good question. Going off the figures from the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, shear in the Tropical Atlantic bottoms out within the mid-June to mid-September timeframe. For the Caribbean, shear is at its lowest from mid-August to mid-September. Different regions of the Atlantic have slightly varying times for when they generally have their lowest shear values, but from just eyeballing the charts I'd imagine that shear is most relaxed during the mid-August to mid-September time period when the basin is considered overall. By mid-June though, shear typically shifts to a more tropical cyclone-friendly intensity.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Quick question. When does Shear typically relax to its lowest point in the Atlantic? June, July, August, September, or October?

Good question. Going off the figures from the Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch, shear in the Tropical Atlantic bottoms out within the mid-June to mid-September timeframe. For the Caribbean, shear is at its lowest from mid-August to mid-September. Different regions of the Atlantic have slightly varying times for when they generally have their lowest shear values, but from just eyeballing the charts I'd imagine that shear is most relaxed during the mid-August to mid-September time period when the basin is considered overall. By mid-June though, shear typically shifts to a more tropical cyclone-friendly intensity.

Thanks for the info and looking there it looks like the Shear except in the Gulf is actually quite low in many areas than what it should be going by averages. Very interesting and always wondered about that.

[stormwise]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/N ... anom.shtml

[AJC3]

Quick question. When does Shear typically relax to its lowest point in the Atlantic? June, July, August, September, or October?

Here's a great reference paper for the MDR if you're into journal articles...

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI3685.1

From that paper, here's the climo shear curve for the MDR...



The CIRA RAMMB page "Experimental Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product" page
looks at (among other parameters) zonally averaged shear compared to climatology, broken
down into sectors as follows:



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... enesis.asp

[SFLcane]

Well new ECMWF update says we see 9 hurricanes including Alex and 3 major which most could be home brew. Hmm..

[cycloneye]

A big change in one month.

@philklotzbach · 4m4 minutes ago 

SSTs in the far North and trop Atlantic have anomalously warmed over past month, while SSTs off E Coast have cooled.

[WPBWeather]

A big change in one month.

@philklotzbach · 4m4 minutes ago 


SSTs in the far North and trop Atlantic have anomalously warmed over past month, while SSTs off E Coast have cooled.



Then, according to Phil K yesterday, we will now have MORE East coast hits!?!

[cycloneye]

But don't celebrate too fast.

philklotzbach · 14m14 minutes ago 

I expect somewhat of a reversal of this in next two weeks given massive subtropical high forecast by ECMWF.

[TheStormExpert]

Well new ECMWF update says we see 9 hurricanes including Alex and 3 major which most could be home brew. Hmm..

Is this a updated forecast from Michael Ventrice? If so, should it be under the Experts thread as well?