Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[tolakram]

This is the end of the UKMET 0Z run at 168 hours


source: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2022082700/623-w-130-n/sea-level-pressure/20220903-0000z.html

[tolakram]

End of the 0Z euro run, 500mb heights

[SFLcane]

Some convection beginning to pop to the north. Large envelope if all things come together this maybe a large hurricane potentially near the islands.

[tolakram]

saved loop (SLIDER)

[AutoPenalti]

I don’t know about y’all but this is giving me Irma/Dorian vibes…

I’m hell bent on watching the evolution of this wave.

[InfernoFlameCat]

She is lookin good! System has good low level rotation. Its primed to begin TCG. Lets hope we get a nice recurve. Or maybe a tropical storm into Texas where they need it. Unfortunately, I doubt either of those scenarios will occur should this thing become a TC.

[USTropics]

This is the end of the UKMET 0Z run at 168 hours
https://i.imgur.com/qmbTJly.png

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2022082700/623-w-130-n/sea-level-pressure/20220903-0000z.html

Both the ECMWF and UKMET have concerning upper-level steering environments:



Meanwhile, GFS displaces the high pressure area further east:


The main issue is the GFS's inability to resolve the upper-level environment off of the east coast. Here is the last 8 runs of the GFS:


One of the reasons for this is the modeled storm in the GOM. At the very upper-levels (200mb), adiabatic processes impinges on the jet stream over NA:

[skyline385]

Still very broad circulation, has a bit to go probably before TCG




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[invest man]

This is the end of the UKMET 0Z run at 168 hours
https://i.imgur.com/qmbTJly.png

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/2022082700/623-w-130-n/sea-level-pressure/20220903-0000z.html

Both the ECMWF and UKMET have concerning upper-level steering environments:
https://i.imgur.com/wAjn64Z.png
https://i.imgur.com/Cip7Ku3.png

Meanwhile, GFS displaces the high pressure area further east:
https://i.imgur.com/vd4uNIc.png

The main issue is the GFS's inability to resolve the upper-level environment off of the east coast. Here is the last 8 runs of the GFS:
https://i.ibb.co/Q67VzLJ/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh132-trend-1.gif

One of the reasons for this is the modeled storm in the GOM. At the very upper-levels (200mb), adiabatic processes impinges on the jet stream over NA:
https://i.imgur.com/oVpMN1p.png

What if suppose the area that is “suppose” to develop in the GoM does not develop, how will that effect strength and direction of this area if it develops. This is reminding me a bit like Hugo.

[USTropics]

Still very broad circulation, has a bit to go probably better TCG

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/b030827da14af431264f86138d1351f7.gif


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There are a few hurdles it will have to overcome which should stunt TCG for the next few days. One being the broad nature like you described (takes time to consolidate all that vorticity). In addition, there will be some interaction with an ULL in the central Atlantic in a few days. This will (1) cause the system to slow down as it approaches and (2) impart upper-level shear that will limit concentration of convection:


All the models agree on the ULL retrograding NW and weakening, and with the building high pressure to the north TCG should be a go:

[NDG]

Time to declare this an Invest, clear much better defined surface circulation near 13N & 38.5W

[sma10]

Those looking at the system and expecting it to "take off" are likely in for a short term disappointment. The Euro doesn't even get this under 1008 mb until at least Wednesday

[zal0phus]

I don’t know about y’all but this is giving me Irma/Dorian vibes…

I’m hell bent on watching the evolution of this wave.

Same here. I'll probably eat these words later but I'm wondering if this could become this season's big one. I keep envisioning a track akin to the Great Miami Hurricane.

[SFLcane]

Taking a closer look at the euro data from what i see the ridge is clearly protecting Florida in this case hence recurves on the eps. Path of least resistance is NE away from Florida. Could meander in the Bahamas like Dorian.

[SFLcane]

Time to declare this an Invest, clear much better defined surface circulation near 13N & 38.5W

https://i.imgur.com/sr9fxCD.gif

I wouldn't call an invest until it can maintain some convection.

[tropicwatch]

Time to declare this an Invest, clear much better defined surface circulation near 13N & 38.5W

https://i.imgur.com/sr9fxCD.gif

I wouldn't call an invest until it can maintain some convection.

Don't know if convection will be the determining factor for an Invest. We have had naked tropical storms in the past.

[SouthDadeFish]

The short-term environment does not look favorable. It seems like mid-level shear and dry air will plague the disturbance the next 3 days. The environment looks to become more favorable on Thursday/Friday, although dry air remains. I am surprised this is not an invest, however.

[sma10]

Taking a closer look at the euro data from what i see the ridge is clearly protecting Florida in this case hence recurves on the eps. Path of least resistance is NE away from Florida. Could meander in the Bahamas like Dorian.

https://i.postimg.cc/SRfrJX1b/EFE3-F495-8278-469-C-9-AEB-9-ED893-B480-D1.jpg

Was also thinking about Dorian and how the setup totally blocked any westward motion in the Bahamas. Trying to remember how close in until the models locked in on Dorian's stall scenario ... 72 hrs? 10 days out still far too early to guess

[tolakram]

Taking a closer look at the euro data from what i see the ridge is clearly protecting Florida in this case hence recurves on the eps. Path of least resistance is NE away from Florida. Could meander in the Bahamas like Dorian.

https://i.postimg.cc/SRfrJX1b/EFE3-F495-8278-469-C-9-AEB-9-ED893-B480-D1.jpg

I feel like the chance to hit Florida is always pretty low, but looking at past storms in this area at this timeframe, and even a week from now, we've had storms supposed to recurve go into the gulf, storms headed for the gulf suddenly recurve, and storms supposed to hit Florida stall or recurve slowly. The upper air forecasts past 5 days are just not reliable, so it's pure fantasy at this point. My bet IF this gets into the Bahamas is that it will be a nail biter until the last few days, similar to Dorian.

[NDG]

Those looking at the system and expecting it to "take off" are likely in for a short term disappointment. The Euro doesn't even get this under 1008 mb until at least Wednesday

Yes, in the short term it will be affected by light shear and dry air intrusion from time to time, may not do much until it starts getting close to the Lesser Antilles, according to the Euro.