#382 Postby aspen » Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:27 pm
Extratropical94 wrote:
Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form by midweek while the system moves west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
I’m interested to see what this one will do. It looks like it’ll be a fairly large and broad disturbance, but the upper-level outflow on the GFS looks pretty good and we saw with Adrian how a broad precursor can rapidly tighten up into a respectable hurricane. If this can tighten up, the ceiling could be quite high.
You can tell an El Niño is in effect with the quality of storms the EPac has been cranking out. TD4 and Eugene were the only systems to not hit hurricane intensity so far (Fernanda is likely a hurricane), and it’s possible we could see two more majors — Fernanda and the 30/90 AOI — in the next week.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.