Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[Nuno]

The longer something festers the more likely something eventually finds a way to happen. My gut leans toward development of something at some point...hosing the florida peninsula...which we definitely don't need..

Mike Lowry in his update this morning was talking about how this set up could be linked to the end of the wet season in South Florida when all is said and done. Very interesting information he delivered ...

Would be an early end for the wet season. It has been a soggy one, but I always feel oddly sad when it ends. The months of dryness often gets just as bad in the other direction.

[wxman57]

will it affect my area?

You could get a couple inches of rain over the next week. Wind up to 10-15 mph. Offshore wind will be about 20-30 mph.

6z GFS give New Port Richey much more than that over the next 168. I take it you don't put much stock in global model QPF? FWIW Euro & CMC is much less impressed.

Nope, not with this system. The GFS has been terrible with it.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 0z Icon was still a bit feisty, showed 998 low approaching WC FL, so still one to watch IMO. 6Z was less enthusiastic but still somewhat well defined

[psyclone]

I like the fact that nothing is happening so far. Still waiting on a cold front, a sub 70 dewpoint and a sub 100 heat index. At this point we are entitled to some slightly less miserable weather..

[chaser1]

I'm just not feeling that models have a good handle on this. 12Z ICON now showing a 1003 mb further south primarily dragging across southernmost Florida. Meanwhile, the 12Z GFS showing consecutive model runs depicting approx 168 hr total precip accumulation of 20" of rain for nearly everywhere south of Kissimmee I'm not banking on that.

[SFLcane]

This might be just as bad as a TC just without the wind for the Florida Peninsula.

[ChrisH-UK]

You can see the starting of this, with a broad elongated rotation in the Gulf and Bay of Campeche, there's also convection happening with thunderstorms bubbling up. As for will anything happen, will see.

[fci]

This might be just as bad as a TC just without the wind for the Florida Peninsula.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTNRpP6m/kkk.png

Rainy season would go out with a bang.
Or maybe a slosh.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 12Z GEFS shows a slight but clear uptick in activity and strength in the E GOM for Tues-Thurs next week vs the last few runs.

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of the Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a surface trough. A broad area of low
pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend
or early next week, but subsequent tropical or subtropical
development could be limited by the system's potential interaction
with a frontal boundary. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next few days
and over portions of the Florida Peninsula from late this weekend
into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[SFLcane]

[ThunderForce]

https://i.postimg.cc/D0bTmX4T/ggg.jpg

Is... is that a hurricane?

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/D0bTmX4T/ggg.jpg

Is... is that a hurricane?

Yes.. appears to be a cat 1

[boca]

https://i.postimg.cc/D0bTmX4T/ggg.jpg

Is... is that a hurricane?

Yes.. appears to be a cat 1

Which way is it moving ?

[cycloneye]

Is... is that a hurricane?

Yes.. appears to be a cat 1

Which way is it moving ?

[SFLcane]

Is... is that a hurricane?

Yes.. appears to be a cat 1

Which way is it moving ?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This might be just as bad as a TC just without the wind for the Florida Peninsula.

https://i.postimg.cc/tTNRpP6m/kkk.png

That's 10days worth of total/accumulating precip. I think that looks a lot worse than it may really be. We have daily thunderstorms and rain as part of our regular summer "rainy season" pattern, and can easily get significant rain each day in spurts, and that adds up quickly. That said though, any incoming storm or front provides added juice to the pattern and can result in longer lasting rain episodes. We could get 5" from a small storm easily, in addition to the daily deluges to expect for a couple more weeks until the pattern shifts to little rain until May. (It seems to be Oct 25- May 25 is the Pinellas County dry season)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Yes.. appears to be a cat 1

Which way is it moving ?

https://i.postimg.cc/8cbq7mkx/BBB.gif

almost comical how the "Tampa Bay Shield" gets depicted with this run!

[jlauderdal]

Which way is it moving ?

https://i.postimg.cc/8cbq7mkx/BBB.gif

almost comical how the "Tampa Bay Shield" gets depicted with this run!

Dirty side of the storm, Im going with 57s idea on intensity until the models consistently show me something that makes more sense. I saw his post about a couple of inches of rain for sofla and in my world a couple is 2 so we will give him 2.99 but even that seems a little light.

[ColdMiser123]

Still a lot that can happen with this. Has been a complicated system with many vorticity centers, so models have generally struggled to resolve a particular outcome.

Latest EPS focuses on any US impacts to be across Florida.