TD 10...Back Again

[WeatherEmperor]

The longer-term forecast discussion from the HPC seems to suggest a front will make it all the way down into Georgia by later in the period (5-7 days out). Their maps also show a low hanging around a few hundred miles to the E of FL, and I'm guessing if 10 gets that far north, it will just be swept up and out to sea (that's probably why the GFDL shows a right hook late in the forecast period). Of course, it all depends how far north 10 is in 5 days. At this point, a hook to the N far enough off the coast of FL looks reasonable to me ... but it's not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination this far out.

-Mike

From HUN
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
WEEKEND WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COASTAL
REGION. THE DGEX IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE UPPER TROF EVEN
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND APPEARS WAY TOO BULLISH IN DOING
SO.

BMX
WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN STATES...STRONG
UPPER VORTEX WILL TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND DIG A
SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS EASTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS
TRIES TO FORCE A SURFACE FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...
BUT FRONTS HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN AUGUST
AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS MOST AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY

I have no idea what any of that stuff means. One paragraph says one thing and the other paragraph says another thing

<RICKY>

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Floater of the "system"
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[NorthGaWeather]

The longer-term forecast discussion from the HPC seems to suggest a front will make it all the way down into Georgia by later in the period (5-7 days out). Their maps also show a low hanging around a few hundred miles to the E of FL, and I'm guessing if 10 gets that far north, it will just be swept up and out to sea (that's probably why the GFDL shows a right hook late in the forecast period). Of course, it all depends how far north 10 is in 5 days. At this point, a hook to the N far enough off the coast of FL looks reasonable to me ... but it's not set in stone by any stretch of the imagination this far out.

-Mike

From HUN
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO DECREASE ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
WEEKEND WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GULF COASTAL
REGION. THE DGEX IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE UPPER TROF EVEN
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA...AND APPEARS WAY TOO BULLISH IN DOING
SO.

BMX
WHILE BROAD UPPER RIDGE BLANKETS THE SOUTHERN STATES...STRONG
UPPER VORTEX WILL TRANSVERSE THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND DIG A
SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS EASTERN STATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GFS
TRIES TO FORCE A SURFACE FRONT INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA ON MONDAY...
BUT FRONTS HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH IN AUGUST
AND WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF STORMS MOST AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY

I have no idea what any of that stuff means. One paragraph says one thing and the other paragraph says another thing

<RICKY>

Not really. Try reading them again. Both agree that cold frontal passage is very difficult this time of year in the Deep South.

[nequad]

Impressive burst...given how "the system" has appeared on satellite the past two days.

There still appears to be shear along its path. Note the westerly shear over the thunderstorm activity along the islands. Perhaps this will relax soon.

Maybe the convection can persist overnight?

Regarding the future track of our system...let's assume for a minute that the system organizes and becomes a tropical storm in 48 hours(or less).
It should be pointed out that the majority of model guidance shows a substantial weakness in the ridge late in the period. The models are hinting at low pressure forming along the Outer Banks in 3 days along a stalled frontal system and moving slowly seaward from there.(will this low eventually take on tropical characteristics?) This should result in a more poleward motion for any organized tropical cyclone moving north of the Islands during the 3-5 day time period. Another trend in the guidance is to dig a rather deep ERN US trof by day 6 or so. All told...right now the current data suggests to me any organized cyclone will likely turn more poleward or meander in such a scenario.

First things first tho...let's see if "this system" can become a tropical cyclone.

[gatorcane]

Not really. Try reading them again. Both agree that cold frontal passage is very difficult this time of year in the Deep South.

BUT it can happen. How about the trough last year that picked Charley up and spun it NE as far south as S. Florida?

[ericinmia]

Here is the latest model map...

[NorthGaWeather]

Not really. Try reading them again. Both agree that cold frontal passage is very difficult this time of year in the Deep South.

BUT it can happen. How about the trough last year that picked Charley up and spun it NE as far south as S. Florida?

No one said it couldn't happen. I've lived in NRN GA for a while now, so I can say with high confidence that it doesn't happen much.

[WindRunner]

Interesting GFDL run there.

[clfenwi]

Not really. Try reading them again. Both agree that cold frontal passage is very difficult this time of year in the Deep South.

BUT it can happen. How about the trough last year that picked Charley up and spun it NE as far south as S. Florida?

No one said it couldn't happen. I've lived in NRN GA for a while now, so I can say with high confidence that it doesn't happen much.

Indeed, there is a reason why the NHC report describes it the way it does:

By the time Charley reached the Dry Tortugas, it came under the influence of an unseasonably strong mid-tropospheric trough that had dug from the east-central United States into the eastern Gulf of Mexico

emphasis added
source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting GFDL run there.

yes. perhaps it shows a turn to the north in response to that deep trof that some are talking about.

<RICKY>

[deltadog03]

westbound we gooooo...

[Ivanhater]

notice the models are to far north already...and its not yet moving wnw

[elysium]

What hat discussion is about is whether or not the ridge will be nudged back to the east, and possibly leaving a weakness in the ridge that would turn TD 10 northward.

The NWS has accepted that scenario on a tentative level only, and with a proverbial grain of salt having a bit more puissance than usual. If you turn to the N.W. Pacific WV imagery, you can just barely discern the low pressure area that some of the models were predicting would come onto the east coast like a lion. Had this scenario played out, it still would have only turned TD 10 temporarily more northerly for a brief time, although I'm not sure about this. Does anyone think that it may have turned TD 10 northwestward for more than 24 hrs? You don't need to answer. The low that would have possibly weakened the ridge is very lackluster; effect negligable. Models should begin supporting a more robust ridge. What that means as far as TD 10 is concerned, I cannot say.

Days 6 and 7 are very important days. If TD 10 slows down in forward speed on days 6 and 7, which may or may not be likely, then day 8 or 9 will become memorable dates.

It appears as though the trough will slowdown TD 10 on day 6 or 7. before presenting my unofficial forecast, however, I will need more information about the weakness of the trough and the strength of the ridge. Does anyone have any information to share that might shed some light on those two very important issues? I would be guessing if I said that the models will soon eliminate the possibility of the trough effecting the ridge more than minimally.

[jrod]

That ridge looks awfully strong right now. My guestimate as I posted yesterday is when TD 10 establishes itself it will accelerate westward. Long term is iffy, if it picks up enough speed it will make it to the gulf before any trough will have a chance of touching it if not then I am gonna go for the dart board.

[WeatherEmperor]

I remember when it was still TD10 most of the global models had it turning sharply W towards FL. However that was assuming that it would move at a steady speed. However that has not happened and the remnants have slowed down alot. Because of that, a supposed trof that some are mentioning here will then have enough time to come in and so some weakening to the ridge to allow it to move more poleward. Could this be true? Otherwise how else could be explain the new turn to the north by the GFDL, something that it hasnt shown the past couple days?

<RICKY>

[NorthGaWeather]

I remember when it was still TD10 most of the global models had it turning sharply W towards FL. However that was assuming that it would move at a steady speed. However that has not happened and the remnants have slowed down alot. Because of that, a supposed trof that some are mentioning here will then have enough time to come in and so some weakening to the ridge to allow it to move more poleward. Could this be true? Otherwise how else could be explain the new turn to the north by the GFDL, something that it hasnt shown the past couple days?

<RICKY>

Its one run...lets see what happens tommorrow.

[ericinmia]

The gfdl is actually not handeling this storm well at all. It is dissapating it, so its track is failry worthless.

[WeatherEmperor]

The gfdl is actually not handeling this storm well at all. It is dissapating it, so its track is failry worthless.

I do agree that perhaps GFDL is not handling the system correctly, cant blame it since its not really all that developed yet. However it is not dissipating it in its latest run. It takes it WNW then NW east of the Bahamas. I dunno either its all a confusing mess right now. I guess we will have to wait for more model runs.

<RICKY>

[gkrangers]

The gfdl is actually not handeling this storm well at all. It is dissapating it, so its track is failry worthless.

Not on the 18z run.

But I want to see a stronger system before jumping on the models.

However...its somewhat interesting that the BAM shallow, medium, AND deep all take it very far west...which means at all layers of the atmopshere, the BAM is seeing unidirectional flow.

[johngaltfla]

I have the funny feeling that this storm will be a real pain in our tuckus in about 96 hours. Would you like some Jose with your Maxwell House gang?