TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

Katrina should have come in a week, not this week. If schools were closed next Thursday and Friday then it will be a really long Labor Day Weekend for some people. I start the Fall Semester in FIU next Monday!

[LaBreeze]

No kidding - since Labor Day weekend is over a week and a half away. Long indeed!

[THead]

FYI.

Local mets in Sarasota and Tampa tonight had no solid prediction on the final path through this area. They said to watch closely as the initial intensity at landfall and forward speed will determine what the severity of the storm will mean for us. Basically though if you live from Naple to Bradenton, you should pay equal attention as those in SE Florida.

The cone IS really, really wide, basically the whole length of the state of Florida. Even the projection for the next 24 hours is really wide. Seems strange, seems like NHC has been nailing them down alot tighter than this lately. Maybe because of the weakness of the storm?

[fci]

Its going to be Broward or Palm....with an outside shot at northern Dade.

If it actually stays due West, it will hit the Dade/Broward border with biggest impact MISSING Palm Beach County.

40 miles North and we are directly hit.

Now, each wobble and wiggle becomes big and quibbling over the exact position becomes the course.....

[NCHurricane]

The cone IS really, really wide, basically the whole length of the state of Florida. Even the projection for the next 24 hours is really wide. Seems strange, seems like NHC has been nailing them down alot tighter than this lately. Maybe because of the weakness of the storm?

I would guess one reason is because the storm is forecasted to slow to a crawl, it makes the forecast very unsure. It's pretty much taking into account the entire model spread.

It should continue of a westward track, but when they stop or slow to less than 5mph, it gives me an uneasy feeling. That could be supper though.

[THead]

Ok I just read the discussion and I think it answers my question, their 2 favorite models are polar opposite from each other, one headin north (GFS), the other south as a monster (GFDL)

[artist]

thanks fci - what gets me also is the highest probabilities is Palm Beach county as well. This is going to be a looooong night.

guess we should put up the shutters just in case, huh?

[THead]

Yes, the fist is forming. I think 90 mph landfall at least.

Can someone explain this "fist" thing again please? I remember someone talking about it in one of the previous storms this year. tia.

[fci]

thanks fci - what gets me also is the highest probabilities is Palm Beach county as well. This is going to be a looooong night.

guess we should put up the shutters just in case, huh?

I know; why would WPB be the highest probability?

I am so indecisive on shutters, will decide for sure in the AM after dropping my daughter off to the bus at 6 AM.
Why they have a half day in Palm Beach County when Broward and Dade are closed is beyond me!!

[Foladar]

Yes, the fist is forming. I think 90 mph landfall at least.

Can someone explain this "fist" thing again please? I remember someone talking about it in one of the previous storms this year. tia.

believe "the fist" means it would supposely gain strength fast. usually "shows" before the storm .. "bombs out" and gains strength fast.

[CronkPSU]

NO WAY would i let my kid go to school tomorrow if i lived down there

[Scorpion]

Thats the reason I refuse to go to school tomorrow. We have no idea what this storm will do. Could go due west and intensify strongly, giving me strong TS winds. Or could go WNW and hit with hurricane winds. Gotta have time to prepare.

[artist]

I know fci - seems last year for Jeanne the county didn't even issue evacuations until noon of the evening of her landfall. Nothing surprises me here!

[fci]

NO WAY would i let my kid go to school tomorrow if i lived down there

I hear you but I am a firm beliver in attending school and am sending both to school. He gets out at 11:35 and she is out at 12:20 so they will both be home by 1:00 before a whole lot of action starts.

Still wondering if we won't get up before 6 and find out that they cancelled anyway....

[gkrangers]

Still looks west at a decent pace. No crawling yet.

[THead]

Yes, the fist is forming. I think 90 mph landfall at least.

Can someone explain this "fist" thing again please? I remember someone talking about it in one of the previous storms this year. tia.

believe "the fist" means it would supposely gain strength fast. usually "shows" before the storm .. "bombs out" and gains strength fast.

Yeah, but I mean where is it, its something visible on the sat pics right?

[NCHurricane]

Yes, the fist is forming. I think 90 mph landfall at least.

Can someone explain this "fist" thing again please? I remember someone talking about it in one of the previous storms this year. tia.

believe "the fist" means it would supposely gain strength fast. usually "shows" before the storm .. "bombs out" and gains strength fast.

Yeah, but I mean where is it, its something visible on the sat pics right?

Yeah, it will be right at the center of circulation. Convection fires up and you can see it start to wrap around the center.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Gfdl takes it west-southwest in slows it down. Making landfall around 42 hours as a cat4. A labar day track?

[Stormcenter]

She actually looks like she moving a little south of due west but hey that's just my opinion.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... duration=6

[Foladar]

Gfdl takes it west-southwest in slows it down. Making landfall around 42 hours as a cat4. A labar day track?

Is this the newest GFDL or the one that's been mentioned before?