Tropical Depression 3=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[mobilebay]

I'm full of questions sorry. Is it just me or does the latest IR look like this is actually two entities that look like they are kind of seperating?

yes it has become elongated (west to east) over the past several hours. However, thunderstorms continue to develop near the center.

[clfenwi]

Can you see this thing dodging the land masses that would kill it or does it seem like it will have to track through at least some?

Depends on what level steering currents ultimately have control. As one can see from the BAMs, it appears that the more the storm is influenced by upper level currents, the further south it would be guided (into the islands). However, if it remains influenced by low level steering, it would pass to the north of the islands. We'll have to wait a few hours and see if the system deviates from the general west-northwest track that it has been maintaining to see if its apparent strengthening has any affect on what steering currents influence it.

[mobilebay]

a storm named after me .... if it goes into the gulf,there is going to be a BIG problem... the noaa weather radio station in Jackson gives info on buoy 42007 ( 22 miles SSE Gulfport) every hour in the regional temps... the past few days the water temp has been near 90!!!

Well hopefully it won't be anything big. It's not named after you, since it's a boy-name (Beryl was the girl-name). I admit it sounds like Beryl should have been the guy-name, but at least you don't have to worry about it named after you., MissHurricane.

I think the MISSHurricane was referring to the home state, Mississippi.

[Toadstool]

a storm named after me .... if it goes into the gulf,there is going to be a BIG problem... the noaa weather radio station in Jackson gives info on buoy 42007 ( 22 miles SSE Gulfport) every hour in the regional temps... the past few days the water temp has been near 90!!!

Well hopefully it won't be anything big. It's not named after you, since it's a boy-name (Beryl was the girl-name). I admit it sounds like Beryl should have been the guy-name, but at least you don't have to worry about it named after you., MissHurricane.

I think the MISSHurricane was refering to the home state, Mississippi.

Doh! My mistake then...

[Bailey1777]

Gut feeling from all who are still on here is this

1. A dead duck.
2. An East coast storm
3. A GOM storm

[Grease Monkey]

Or it can be all three:

East coast storm, then A GOM storm and then a dead duck.

[clfenwi]

(My reference to the models with the heading of Tropical Storm Three snipped)

In alot of cases when you see them put Tropical Storm on there, they usualy upgrade on the next advisory. NOT in all cases though. Good observation.

IIRC, the 14Z model package for TD-2 carried the header Tropical Storm Two, but it was of course, later that it was upgraded. Had they put the name in the header instead of the number, one could bank on the upgrade ocurring in the 5 AM package.

Right now Stewart has the fun of figuring out the position of the center (which, of course, impacts the intensity) with only the conflicting estimates as his outside help.

[mobilebay]

Gut feeling from all who are still on here is this

1. A dead duck.
2. An East coast storm
3. A GOM storm

Way to early to say in my opinion. The biggest thing for TD3 now is survival. It's got to survive dry air, shear, and dodge land masses. I just don't know.

[mobilebay]

(My reference to the models with the heading of Tropical Storm Three snipped)

In alot of cases when you see them put Tropical Storm on there, they usualy upgrade on the next advisory. NOT in all cases though. Good observation.

IIRC, the 14Z model package for TD-2 carried the header Tropical Storm Two, but it was of course, later that it was upgraded. Had they put the name in the header instead of the number, one could bank on the upgrade ocurring in the 5 AM package.

Right now Stewart has the fun of figuring out the position of the center (which, of course, impacts the intensity) with only the conflicting estimates as his outside help.

Very good point. I agree 100 %. Man we need that recon.

[Bailey1777]

New IR out. What do you make of it? And exactly where do you think the center is looking at the floater IR?

[mobilebay]

New IR out. What do you make of it? And exactly where do you think the center is looking at the floater IR?

I'll be honest. Looking at nightime visible I can't tell where the center is. As a poster above says Mr. Stewart has his work cut out for him finding that center. That will make all the difference on intensity.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say the center is about 16.0-16.5 in about 58.5...Which is near the large Cdo like blow up of convectoin. This LLC looks to be elongated to the northwest.

[MississippiHurricane]

Dont feel bad Toadstool. The "Miss" in my name is for Mississipppi. I was hard pressed to find a good name. Im actually a 22 year old guy.

[Toadstool]

Dont feel bad Toadstool. The "Miss" in my name is for Mississipppi. I was hard pressed to find a good name. Im actually a 22 year old guy.

Cool man, well then Chris may be named after you. Hopefully it's just another Alberto!

[MississippiHurricane]

I hope so too. Im just worried about the water temps in the area: I think if it makes it into the gulf it could just blow up.

[MississippiHurricane]

Now im not going to be able to sleep: I tried to stay away from this board because I had a tendency to watch the every invest that was issued. Curse my love of weather!

[Toadstool]

I hope so too. Im just worried about the water temps in the area: I think if it makes it into the gulf it could just blow up.

That's the worry for all of us...

[Bailey1777]

Man the SW quadrant is really blowing up.

[Bailey1777]

Another thing to watch! When I was wathing the GFDL run for this system if you watch off to the East you see them developing that wave to a TS and bring it West.

[MississippiHurricane]

How many hours out to a ts?