TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[shawn67]

It's just not making any sense to me...looking at the satellite presentation and the Key West long range and short range java loops the storm seems to be moving it much more west than what people are giving it credit. It looks to me like the center of rotation is becoming visible on the Key West short range java loop. What am I missing??

Missing the fact that the world is round...

Ask an honest question and this is the response??? Nice.

[Sanibel]

Good thing it didn't hook our way. It would have doubled the overwater time while obviously wrapping up tightly.

SST here is 89*!!!

[branen_35]

because there are certain people in florida who are biased to where they "want" it to go...I am looking at the miami long range radar and it still looks more west than anything.

maybe there are certain ppl who are biased to the NHC saying that is it still moving nw?

[westmoon]

caneman,

He is wrapping up. Starting to get concerned. Could be one of those quick spin ups.

Even with the warm water I don't think he is going to have the time he needs to get it together.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Colossus,

Not exactly, I did see subsequent updates following those and true, they did change their stance when the models started getting into better agreement and the NHC made it obvious that they were goign with the switch too. My point, was that they specifically said that Flrodia has nothing to worry about...not Florida SHOULDN'T have anything to worry about, or that we should still watch closely, or anything like that. They specifically dismissed the possibility. That's all I was saying. Of course they changed their tune when the odds went up, but I strongly feel that no media outlet should ever say that any group should not worry about a storm when the options are so very open early on. Many people really depend on those reports and can't check back for a few days. What if you decided to go camping for a week in the middle keys based on that call?

Don't get me wrong, I like the folks at 13 too, I jsut thought that was irresponsible at the time and if BayNews9 isn't your personal favorite, we can agree to disagree.

[Toadstool]

Knabb is on channel 10 right now, and said it was moving NW, and the convection is to the N and E.

Watching that now... Martinez says he thinks it will be a strong Cat 1.

[MiamiensisWx]

If you look at Key West radar, it appears the possible LLC is in the extreme east corner of the radar, where you may note the more pronounced turning. Viewing that, I still see a nearly northwest movement in general of the possible center. No bias here.

Any thoughts on this?

[cpdaman]

it is becoming more symetrical it is developing
LOOK

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... an&type=ir

outflow improving pressure will be going down

[shawn67]

If you look at Key West radar, it appears the possible LLC is in the extreme east corner of the radar, where you may note the more pronounced turning. Viewing that, a still see a nearly northwest movement in general of the possible center. No bias here.

Any thoughts on this?

That was my question...hopefully you wont get flamed

[cpdaman]

when is next recon

[Steve H.]

It is quite possible that Ernesto will get into a period of rapid intensification within the next couple of hours. I am seeing some evidence of this which at first I thought was increased shear, buts seems now like its increased turning and better structure. Clouds tops are getting colder.

[fox13weather]

Any mets or knowledgable others have an explanation for why the pressure seems to be going up when it's looking better on sat & our local mets are showing that it's getting a little stronger (magentas & whites popping up on IR now per Norcross)...?

Simple, some of the storms are being enhanced by a small upper level low NW of the system. The storms that are being generated are not part of the circulation yet. This storm spent a LONG time over Cuba and basically it came off the coast as a marginal tropical storm, if that. It takes awhile for the "engine" to "repair" itself. If you look back in history, very few, if any, storms have come off the coast of Cuba as a weak tropical storm only to intensify and POUND Florida.

Hey Fox13 did your web site go down yesterday? As much as I like the new format, I find more immediate info here on this site than what you all have posted (acknowledging that you DO have to work for a living)...

The site is still a work in progress but is getting better every day. The tropical tracking portion of the site is pretty darn good. It is worth a look and see if I can say so myself!

[carve]

What are the chances this stays south of florida and then up the west side of Flor.

[bjackrian]

What's with the apparent breakup of some of the showers/storms near the estimated center? Is that a radar artifact (I'm looking at both Key West and Miami long-range loops), or is some of the convection falling apart?

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I still believe the LLC circulation is moving more towards the northwest than west-northwest (but not quite on a "true" northwest heading, but almost), per viewing Key West radar. Others may perceive it differently, but that's my view on it based on viewing current Key West radar loops. This is supported by the more eastward position of the LLC per RECON. No bias here.

[tampastorm]

when is next recon

If the Key west radar is not showing a WNW movement I must be going blind, well just kidding there, but where is this north movement?

[Sanibel]

Negative on WNW heading.

I believe the LLC is seen in the SE corner of the main convection on Key West Long range radar clearly moving NW. You can tell it is the LLC because of its slower motion.

This hasn't even hit the hot part of the Gulf Stream. Expect a delay for reflection of the hot Gulf Stream SST's.

[storms in NC]

IMHO Look I know most are worried on the west coast of fla. But really if it stays on track as NHC said you will be fine as you will get some rain from the bands. Now the east coast of Fla is the ones the will be on the east side of the storm and they will get some wind and more rain then the west coast of Fla. I have been watching this cause I do have a daughter in Ft Myers. I am not worried about her at this time. Yes things can change. But I don't think they will. If any thing it will move a tad to the right not much. For the Front is moving in and will push it more to the right. Now this Is just MHO

[Aquawind]

Waiting for the 12Z globals..

It's looking tight at the moment and with no major land masses to alter things it will be interesting to see the 12Z data as things are getting down to crunch time..

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[carve]

I see no north movement..just wnw..so whats up??