TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

tampastorm · #381 Postby **tampastorm** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:58 pm

It looks the east side is toast , but the west side looks like it is trying to hang in there.

skufful · #382 Postby **skufful** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 3:59 pm

storms in NC wrote:
gtalum wrote:
storms in NC wrote:Was 85 mile from center this morning

Storms often expand as they weaken. Ernesto had a 105 mile TS windfield while he was over Cuba, then it tightened back to 85 miles when he came offshore. Now he's growing back to 105 miles.

I'd say Ernesto is toast. A minimal to middle TS rain event.

Maybe for Fla but that is not what they are talking about up here. I am now under a Hurricane watch

I am too, but I see little chance of there being much left if it tracks through FL a long time.

Trugunzn · #383 Postby **Trugunzn** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:00 pm

tampastorm wrote:It looks the east side is toast , but the west side looks like it is trying to hang in there.

East side isnt toast. Look at the imagry and u see way more convecion then west side.

Aquawind · #384 Postby **Aquawind** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:01 pm

Aquawind wrote:No real tornado threat mentioned yet..

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/

Tonado Watch # 758 !!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0758.html

NFLDART · #385 Postby **NFLDART** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:02 pm

Seems to still be following a more wnw track according the radar imagery

tampastorm · #386 Postby **tampastorm** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:03 pm

Trugunzn wrote:
tampastorm wrote:It looks the east side is toast , but the west side looks like it is trying to hang in there.

East side isnt toast. Look at the imagry and u see way more convecion then west side.

you might want to look again. East hardly anything. West looks good.

#387 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:04 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:NHC sees what i'm seeing as far as the ragged look to it. If it's going to strengthen it better get after it!

If it's becoming more ragged as the NHC says (and it is, as far as I can see), then how is it going to strengthen to a 55kt TS in 9 hours? Highly unlikely it'll be more than a 45 mph TS at landfall.

Trugunzn · #388 Postby **Trugunzn** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:04 pm

See it that deep convection on the east side can wrap around center

gtalum · #389 Postby **gtalum** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:05 pm

NFLDART wrote:Seems to still be following a more wnw track according the radar imagery

Not this again! :roll:

HurricaneJim · #390 Postby **HurricaneJim** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:06 pm

He ain't lookin good on the latest pass.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

rnbaida · #391 Postby **rnbaida** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:07 pm

one of my local mets just said that he does not agree with the NHC and think it will go into the east gulf before turning NE into FL... It looks like it may go into the gulf...Anyone agree?

Trugunzn · #392 Postby **Trugunzn** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:07 pm

gtalum wrote:
NFLDART wrote:Seems to still be following a more wnw track according the radar imagery

Not this again!

actually it is but i think it may be a wobble

mettski · #393 Postby **mettski** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:07 pm

[quote="Trugunzn"]See it that deep convection on the east side can wrap around center

[img]

looks to far away to pulled in. imo

gtalum · #394 Postby **gtalum** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:08 pm

rnbaida wrote:one of my local mets just said that he does not agree with the NHC and think it will go into the east gulf before turning NE into FL... It looks like it may go into the gulf...Anyone agree?

If by "Eastern Gulf" he meant "Florida Bay", then yeah, it's possible.

AZRainman · #395 Postby **AZRainman** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:10 pm

Here, everyone go look at the recon plots then maybe we can all agree on the direction :wink:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

chrisnnavarre · #396 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:10 pm

rnbaida wrote:one of my local mets just said that he does not agree with the NHC and think it will go into the east gulf before turning NE into FL... It looks like it may go into the gulf...Anyone agree?

I can only agree with what I see, and I see it going into the eastern Gulf as we speak. Remember it either has to stall or slow down before heading back
NE and it's still moving at quite a clip I must add.

rnbaida · #397 Postby **rnbaida** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:11 pm

gtalum wrote:
rnbaida wrote:one of my local mets just said that he does not agree with the NHC and think it will go into the east gulf before turning NE into FL... It looks like it may go into the gulf...Anyone agree?

If by "Eastern Gulf" he meant "Florida Bay", then yeah, it's possible.

he said that it will go west of the keys and maybe a little father north and west than that before it turns NE.... It might happen.... So far No one has been right on this storm's intensity or track...

#398 Postby **storms in NC** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:11 pm

NFLDART wrote:Seems to still be following a more wnw track according the radar imagery

Don't go by Radar. You have to go by satellite. It is NW

HurricaneHunter914 · #399 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:13 pm

If this gets into the gulf (IMO unlikey) then the hurricane possibility with shoot straight up.

shawn67 · #400 Postby **shawn67** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 4:13 pm

gtalum wrote:
rnbaida wrote:one of my local mets just said that he does not agree with the NHC and think it will go into the east gulf before turning NE into FL... It looks like it may go into the gulf...Anyone agree?

If by "Eastern Gulf" he meant "Florida Bay", then yeah, it's possible.

You're back peddling.... :lol:

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

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