TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[WxGuy1]

it is my eyes or can you almost see a smaller center with strong convection from Everglades City down to the Middle Keys and wrapping around to the southwest of Miami?

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

After looping the radar through many, many times, and examining the base velocity data, I'm going to put the center very close to the red X in the following image:



There's been a lot of "pin-wheel" rotation about the area near the X.

[tgenius]

2am has Center at 25.2N 80.7W How close/far is that from the X you drew up?

[WxGuy1]

My X is near 25.35N 80.75W , so pretty darn close! NHC adv position is a tad nearer the coast, but inland nonetheless. Further examination shows remaining westerly motion to some very weak reflectivity echoes near my X, so the NHC 2am position makes sense per radar obs.

EDIT: Unless it moves significantly east (to get near the coast), I do think Earny will be a TD by mid-morning, and it may degenerate/weaken beyond a TD by the time it emerges back into the Atlantic.

[THead]

Thanks for the Red X, looks like a winner to me.

[tgenius]

Yup.. pretty darn close indeed.. No wonder the winds have picked up (especially in gusts) in the last 45 mins.... I also think the band to the south of COC will make it to miami sometime in the next 2 hours based on the speed from radar loops...

[craptacular]

FYI:

Last VDM

1008 mb
05:29 25'10"N 80'45"W

[stormtruth]

Well done WxGuy It has slowed down to 7mph. Not making much progress. Might make it passed Miami by daybreak at that pace.

[THead]

FYI:

Last VDM

1008 mb
05:29 25'10"N 80'45"W

Looks like landfall is taking its toll. The band on the east which looked fairly healthy an hour ago, is falling apart now. His west side continues to look very wet though.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Ernesto has not changed.

[jinftl]

Winds continue to be gusty....

2am NWS Miami observations:
Pompano Beach E22
Miami Int'l SE22 Gust 35
West Kendall SE 15 Gust 26
Homestead E 21 Gust 26


1am Miami NWS observations:
Pompano Beach SE16 Gust 30
Miami Int'l E21 Gust 32
West Kendall SE 24 Gust 30
Homestead E 21 Gust 29

[fci]

Was awakened by a squall at about 2:00 AM accompained by torrential rain, some good gusts of wind and a boom of thunder.

What's up with the 2 AM saying he made a Florida landfall for the 2nd time?

[superfly]

First Florida landfall was in the keys.

[THead]

Was awakened by a squall at about 2:00 AM accompained by torrential rain, some good gusts of wind and a boom of thunder.

What's up with the 2 AM saying he made a Florida landfall for the 2nd time?

Maybe meaning landfall in the keys, then a very short trip across a section of Florida Bay, then landfall on mainland Fla.

[jinftl]

the band south of and paralleling the keys looks interesting...wonder if it will hold together and pinwheel towards dade and broward....at the rate this storm is moving, we mayb be in these spiral bands for a bit longer than i was thinking

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[fci]

Was awakened by a squall at about 2:00 AM accompained by torrential rain, some good gusts of wind and a boom of thunder.

What's up with the 2 AM saying he made a Florida landfall for the 2nd time?

Maybe meaning landfall in the keys, then a very short trip across a section of Florida Bay, then landfall on mainland Fla.

Oh, OK; makes sense to me.
Thanks.

[carolina blue]

Looks just west of homestead

[Normandy]

LOL this storm is insane.

It makes landfall near Key Largo, and now its almost hugging the W Coast of Florida....and convection is intense....wonder if itll pull the LLC into it.

[stormtruth]

Pressure has also dropped to 1001 per the latest advisory. Crazy Ern

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. RECENTLY A WIND GUST TO 58 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE
FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION...AND WINDS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS...AND OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTIES.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

[StrongWind]

NE Broward. Was just outside for a bit. Winds gusty from the SE. The low cumulus layer is fairly broken allowing one to see up to the higher levels. I got chased inside by a brief shower.

When I got back in, Fox news was running a self-promo spot that went something like: 'stay tuned for continuing coverage of powerful storm Ernesto as it rips a path of destruction.'

I'm serious - those were the words used. It's a repeat of "Your World" w/ Cavuto so perhaps this promo is also a carryover from yesterday afternoon. Anyways, it's

[Bgator]

Towards midnight here in South Dade winds started picking up, strees really starting blowing, and my flag was popping in th wind, asround 2:10 a big boom occured, someones transformer may have blown 6000 without power as of 5am, now its only slighlty breezy, tho the center is due west of me, some rain may wrap around and hit me if it moves slow...