TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[Thunder44]

Beven is on duty tonight at TPC. So I'm sure if and when the data comes in that is a hurricane he'll waste no time in upgrading it.

i doubt that it will become a hurricane before landfall. It only has about 2 hours until landfall.

I don't think landfall will be that soon. At least not the very center of eye. The eyewall may come onshore a few hours sooner than the actual center does.

[seahawkjd]

What direction is it moving now? I'm in Carteret County and I can already feel the low pressure in my sinuses.

[rnbaida]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

URNT12 KNHC 312338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/23:22:20Z
B. 33 deg 00 min N
078 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1342 m
D. 65 kt
E. 126 deg 073 nm
F. 211 deg 063 kt
G. 123 deg 046 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 19 C/ 1533 m
J. 20 C/ 1520 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 23:08:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 118 / 23NM
GOOD RADAR BANDING STARTING TO FORM
;

[JtSmarts]

Pressure 988-987 winds should catch up soon.

[CrazyC83]

Vortex winds 65 knots = Hurricane Ernesto

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006



...Ernesto remains just below hurricane strength...rainbands moving
onto the coast of the Carolinas...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Edisto
Beach to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.2 north...longitude 78.3 west or about 75
miles...125 km...south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph...29 km/hr.
On this track...the center of Ernesto will cross the North Carolina
coast tonight.

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph...
110 km/hr...with higher gusts. While little change in strength is
expected before landfall...any strengthening during the next few
hours would bring Ernesto to the coast as a category one hurricane.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
mainly to the east of the center. Gusts to tropical storm-force are
spreading onto the North Carolina coast near Cape Fear.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
was 988 mb...29.18 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeastern
South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches...
through Saturday. These amounts could cause life-threatening flash
floods.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina through
tonight.

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...33.2 N...78.3 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[JtSmarts]

Now the big question. Will they upgrade at 8:00?

[rockyman]

Again, Cindy

[CrazyC83]

They obviously got it too late for the advisory. Since he will likely be onshore at 11pm and weakening, it will either be a) a special update or b) a post-storm confirmation.

Didn't the same thing happen with Cindy - the proof of hurricane intensity came too late for them to declare initially?

Anyway, I'm going to call it Hurricane Ernesto. You should be prepared and taking action as if it was such.

[JtSmarts]

They have the pressure on the 8:00 advisory. Now I think they are waiting for FLV winds over 75 knots.

[rockyman]

I keep mentioning Cindy for one reason...many people will choose to ignore a mere "tropical storm" while going nutso over a "hurricane"...Our house rocked and rolled during Cindy...all of the neighbors said "that HAD to be a hurricane...if I had known we had a hurricane, I would have prepared better"...then, lo and behold, NHC confirmed cane status months later.

[Brent]

Agreed. I think this will be a hurricane in the post-analysis.

Gaston was another... and it affected the same general area.

[SouthFloridawx]

E... Is now moving NNE... could hug the coast a little while before coming in.

[CrazyC83]

Agreed. I think this will be a hurricane in the post-analysis.

Gaston was another... and it affected the same general area.

This is especially notable since I think Ernesto was NOT a hurricane at all in the Caribbean...

[Gorky]

Where are the confirmation of hurricane force winds? I see a flight level wind of 63Kt as the highest measured. That would require winds to be faster at the surface which isn't likely.the VDM had an estimated surface wind of 65kt, but no confirmation on that. We'd need to see some dropsonde data to see what the ratio of flight - surface winds are before we can call it a hurricane.

[rnbaida]

If they dont upgrade this to a hurricane they would be making a very bad call.... right now i think the winds havny cought up to the pressure... give it 1-2 more hours....

[CrazyC83]

Where are the confirmation of hurricane force winds? I see a flight level wind of 63Kt as the highest measured. That would require winds to be faster at the surface which isn't likely.the VDM had an estimated surface wind of 65kt, but no confirmation on that. We'd need to see some dropsonde data to see what the ratio of flight - surface winds are before we can call it a hurricane.

The 65kt vortex.

[Brent]

Where are the confirmation of hurricane force winds? I see a flight level wind of 63Kt as the highest measured. That would require winds to be faster at the surface which isn't likely.the VDM had an estimated surface wind of 65kt, but no confirmation on that. We'd need to see some dropsonde data to see what the ratio of flight - surface winds are before we can call it a hurricane.

They measured 73 kt earlier this afternoon(before this latest pressure drop). That was the highest I've seen.

and I agree... it defintely wasn't a hurricane near Haiti if it's not one now.

[tgenius]

Where are the confirmation of hurricane force winds? I see a flight level wind of 63Kt as the highest measured. That would require winds to be faster at the surface which isn't likely.the VDM had an estimated surface wind of 65kt, but no confirmation on that. We'd need to see some dropsonde data to see what the ratio of flight - surface winds are before we can call it a hurricane.

The 65kt vortex.

Now I want you to honestly tell me whats the REAL difference between 70 and 75mph and the name difference? It's a mental thing, even Knabb said so the other day on TV.

[superfly]

If they dont upgrade this to a hurricane they would be making a very bad call.... right now i think the winds havny cought up to the pressure... give it 1-2 more hours....

If the winds haven't caught up, why would it be a bad call?