TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Nimbus]

The tropical forecast points on the floater disappeared?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

The MSLP check box still works though.

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL at 00:00z changed upward the intensity to 50kts and pressure down to 997 mbs.

[Jim Cantore]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL at 00:00z changed upward the intensity to 50kts and pressure down to 997 mbs.

Would this prompt a special advisory?

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

NRL at 00:00z changed upward the intensity to 50kts and pressure down to 997 mbs.

Would this prompt a special advisory?

Not at all.

[CrazyC83]

If it was a BIG jump they'd do one, like to hurricane strength.

[JonathanBelles]

in the last frame could that indent in the northwest corner a to-be possible eye?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Toadstool]

Definitely wish the best for Bermuda, and hope Florance does not make a direct hit.

How good are supplies on an island that far at sea? I know we had trouble getting gas and groceries here in S. Florida during Ernesto, and afterwards with the roof repairs. On an island I must imagine it is much more difficult.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No eye yet...But the system is becoming better organized with now a fine central core starting to form. Eye maybe by tomarrow night starting to form.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bermuda was hit by Fabian which was a cat3...They should do fine with this.

[Toadstool]

Bermuda was hit by Fabian which was a cat3...They should do fine with this.

I forget how close Felix got, but a friend of mine didn't like it at all when he was there..

[wxman57]

Bermuda was hit by Fabian which was a cat3...They should do fine with this.

I think there's a good chance that Florence will be a Cat 3 by Sunday, perhaps stronger than Fabian.

[terstorm1012]

Definitely wish the best for Bermuda, and hope Florance does not make a direct hit.

How good are supplies on an island that far at sea? I know we had trouble getting gas and groceries here in S. Florida during Ernesto, and afterwards with the roof repairs. On an island I must imagine it is much more difficult.

they should be fine. Bermuda is pretty wealthy (one of the wealthiest places on earth)...and the British Navy can get in there after the storm passes if need be.

They're probably prepared really well for storms there too supply and shelterwise.

[Brent]

65 mph at 11pm.

Could be a hurricane at 5am easily.

[cycloneye]

65 mph at 11pm.

Could be a hurricane at 5am easily.

Let's see first what recon finds overnight.

[cycloneye]

[JonathanBelles]

im not suprised its at 65 mph. she had a baby and now she doesnt have to supply energy to it.

[Thunder44]

CI# numbers suggest that it almost is already at hurricane strength:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2006 Time : 021500 UTC
Lat : 24:27:44 N Lon : 61:07:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 988.3mb/ 63.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.0 4.0 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -0.1mb

Center Temp : -75.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the satellites, at the moment, I am in agreement (for the first time today) with the intensity. 65mph seems correct.

[Evil Jeremy]

two words: rapid strengthing. here we go again!

[wxman57]

I think we'll see an eye open up by tomorrow evening with Florence near Cat 3 strength. Not much to stop it from intensifying rapidly.