Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherTracker]

16/2345 UTC 19.5N 47.1W T4.0/4.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

can you provide a link please?

Thank you

[cycloneye]

16/2345 UTC 19.5N 47.1W T4.0/4.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

can you provide a link please?

Thank you

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[WeatherTracker]

16/2345 UTC 19.5N 47.1W T4.0/4.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

can you provide a link please?

Thank you

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Thank you...Does it run every 5 hours?

[HurricaneHunter914]

I highly doubt she is still at 75 MPH, but then again, I'm not a met.

[WeatherTracker]

I highly doubt she is still at 75 MPH, but then again, I'm not a met.

what do you mean? higher or lower than 75mph?

[wxman57]

Yes, interesting 18Z GFS run. As I said in an earlier post, the GFS was the first model to correctly predict the track change on Ernesto. Problem with the GFS is that it's prone to wild swings, so you never really know when to trust it. That doesn't mean it's wrong, though. I think Helene is more likely to recurve east of Bermuda, but I would really like it if the GFS would swing back the other way soon, if you know what I mean.

Here's a climo map I made of all storms within 65nm of where Helene is now from 1851-2005 in September-November. Only 1 hit the east U.S. Coast -- Isabel of 2003. Climo doesn't mean a heck of a lot, as every single storm on that map below probably had a different weather pattern to contend with.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene22.gif

[HurricaneHunter914]

I highly doubt she is still at 75 MPH, but then again, I'm not a met.

what do you mean? higher or lower than 75mph?

I meant she looks stronger than 75 mph.

[WeatherTracker]

I highly doubt she is still at 75 MPH, but then again, I'm not a met.

what do you mean? higher or lower than 75mph?

I meant she looks stronger than 75 mph.

models are up to 80mph

[WeatherTracker]

nice convection blow-up on west side...

[jusforsean]

so when does the next model run come out?? That 18zgfs is on crack (i hope) heavy duty crack.....

[storms in NC]

By the numbers it is going almost due west

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060917 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060917 0000 060917 1200 060918 0000 060918 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 47.1W 20.2N 48.6W 21.1N 49.8W 21.9N 51.0W
BAMM 19.3N 47.1W 20.4N 48.8W 21.4N 50.2W 22.1N 51.6W
A98E 19.3N 47.1W 20.0N 48.8W 21.0N 50.4W 22.1N 52.0W
LBAR 19.3N 47.1W 20.5N 48.5W 21.4N 49.8W 22.2N 51.2W
SHIP 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS 82KTS
DSHP 70KTS 74KTS 79KTS 82KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060919 0000 060920 0000 060921 0000 060922 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.3N 52.2W 22.5N 55.1W 23.7N 58.2W 25.1N 60.7W
BAMM 22.4N 52.9W 22.3N 56.1W 23.1N 59.6W 23.9N 61.8W
A98E 22.5N 54.2W 24.3N 58.6W 25.9N 62.7W 26.6N 65.5W
LBAR 22.9N 52.8W 23.4N 57.1W 23.9N 60.8W 26.7N 64.2W
SHIP 84KTS 81KTS 74KTS 71KTS
DSHP 84KTS 81KTS 74KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 18.5N LONM12 = 45.3W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 17.0N LONM24 = 43.3W
WNDCUR = 70KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 984MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

Trending more west but the BAMS are not good ones to follow in higher latituds.

[WeatherTracker]

Models are up to 80mph....

Pressure 984mb

[jusforsean]

Yes, interesting 18Z GFS run. As I said in an earlier post, the GFS was the first model to correctly predict the track change on Ernesto. Problem with the GFS is that it's prone to wild swings, so you never really know when to trust it. That doesn't mean it's wrong, though. I think Helene is more likely to recurve east of Bermuda, but I would really like it if the GFS would swing back the other way soon, if you know what I mean.

Here's a climo map I made of all storms within 65nm of where Helene is now from 1851-2005 in September-November. Only 1 hit the east U.S. Coast -- Isabel of 2003. Climo doesn't mean a heck of a lot, as every single storm on that map below probably had a different weather pattern to contend with.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene22.gif

yeah, good point thats what i always wonder. We can run a search for historical tracks for storms in the proximity of a particular disturbance and poof it gives us a run down. However, who is to say that the weather patterns, fronts, water temps etc were the same, did they have a gordon out there as well in the play?? So I always wonder about that. Although it is interesting to see.

[Nimbus]

At least none ot the models are pointing her towards the islands. Perhaps that westward jog is just a stair step motion rather than Helene getting into the east side of the ridge. Interesting setup, its a little tougher call than we thought it would be.

[Thunder44]

Yes, interesting 18Z GFS run. As I said in an earlier post, the GFS was the first model to correctly predict the track change on Ernesto. Problem with the GFS is that it's prone to wild swings, so you never really know when to trust it. That doesn't mean it's wrong, though. I think Helene is more likely to recurve east of Bermuda, but I would really like it if the GFS would swing back the other way soon, if you know what I mean.

Here's a climo map I made of all storms within 65nm of where Helene is now from 1851-2005 in September-November. Only 1 hit the east U.S. Coast -- Isabel of 2003. Climo doesn't mean a heck of a lot, as every single storm on that map below probably had a different weather pattern to contend with.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene22.gif

I understand it may come further west and hit the US. But it just looks ridiculous to me now with it exploding the ridge in the Western Atlantic and pushing Helene SW into the Bahamas, before coming up the east coast.

[wxman57]

I understand it may come further west and hit the US. But it just looks ridiculous to me now with it exploding the ridge in the Western Atlantic and pushing Helene SW into the Bahamas, before coming up the east coast.

Yeah, looks ridiculous. Kind of like driving Ernesto right into the ridge over Florida...

Don't always assume we know what the trof/ridge positions will be in 5-7 days. Now I'm not saying it'll hit the east coast based upon a few GFS runs, just that no one should turn his/her back on Helene until it starts heading north.

[Derek Ortt]

Chris,

GFS got Ernesto right for all of the wrong reasons. it should not get any credit for being so out to lunch that it got lucky. I did that a few years ago on a dynamics question during my undergrad... prof took off more than half of the points on that question.

Getting something right for the wrong reasons is the same as totally blowing it

[sma10]

Yes, interesting 18Z GFS run. As I said in an earlier post, the GFS was the first model to correctly predict the track change on Ernesto. Problem with the GFS is that it's prone to wild swings, so you never really know when to trust it. That doesn't mean it's wrong, though. I think Helene is more likely to recurve east of Bermuda, but I would really like it if the GFS would swing back the other way soon, if you know what I mean.

Here's a climo map I made of all storms within 65nm of where Helene is now from 1851-2005 in September-November. Only 1 hit the east U.S. Coast -- Isabel of 2003. Climo doesn't mean a heck of a lot, as every single storm on that map below probably had a different weather pattern to contend with.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/helene22.gif

We REALLY want the 18z GFS to be wrong for many reasons.

The most important reason is because when the second trough misses Helene on Thursday (when Helene is at 25N 61W) she is then captured and turned due west for 3 days under the influence of a strong high. It's almost certain that, if the GFS upper pattern develops as advertised, Helene will be under ideal strengthening conditions.

It would definitely be better for the GFS to be WRONG.

[jusforsean]

o.k did i miss something? Did the topic on this thread just change and say that the next model runs are out? Mabey I am just tired? I dont see any links to new runs?