Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[NDG]

Great job wxman57, you stuck to your guns last night, and indeed the moisture has pulled northward as the tropical wave's axis has continued to move westward. There's very little organization where the convection is this morning.

[HeeBGBz]

What about the low just south of Cuba? It seems to have a bit of circulation. Could that one form up out of any of this?

[cycloneye]

What about the low just south of Cuba? It seems to have a bit of circulation. Could that one form up out of any of this?

That circulation is related to an Upper Level Low.No tropical formation from that.

[wxman57]

What about the low just south of Cuba? It seems to have a bit of circulation. Could that one form up out of any of this?

That circulation is related to an Upper Level Low.No tropical formation from that.

However, that upper low (at the southwest end of the TUTT) is moving westward. I think it may play a factor in helping to generate convection as the wave axis reaches the Yucatan by Monday. That's when we'll have to keep a closer eye on the wave - as it tracks NW toward the central to northern coast of Mexico across the SW Gulf (my scenario 1). Could become an invest in the SW Gulf next Mon/Tue, but probably will just bring more rain to TX toward the middle of next week.

[gatorcane]

saved by the ULLs again. Does this tune seem familiar (HINT: 2006)?

The Atlantic is simply overloaded with ULLs so until they go away look for very little to really get going

[punkyg]

I ready to give up on this tropical wave i'm now looking at the wave coming off of africa.

[Frank2]

That's why I called it a wave yesterday (and not an area of disturbed weather, which implies something organized) - a wave is all it is...

[NDG]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT WITH THE N
PORTION MOVING SLOWER NW THAN THE S PORTION MOVING W. WAVE IS
ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/201033.shtml?

[tailgater]

What about the low just south of Cuba? It seems to have a bit of circulation. Could that one form up out of any of this?

That circulation is related to an Upper Level Low.No tropical formation from that.

However, that upper low (at the southwest end of the TUTT) is moving westward. I think it may play a factor in helping to generate convection as the wave axis reaches the Yucatan by Monday. That's when we'll have to keep a closer eye on the wave - as it tracks NW toward the central to northern coast of Mexico across the SW Gulf (my scenario 1). Could become an invest in the SW Gulf next Mon/Tue, but probably will just bring more rain to TX toward the middle of next week.

The GFS shows that ULL weaking and pulling out to the NE with the trough, but another piece of the same upper trough dropping south over western GOM then becoming cut off. Same scenario?

[canegrl04]

I'm really getting frustrated with this game of seeing something start to develope and then it goes poof. If we don't have a TD form by the first week of August,I'm giving up on the season

[Trader Ron]

On average, the FIRST Hurricane is August 14.

Patience.

[flwxwatcher]

I'm really getting frustrated with this game of seeing something start to develope and then it goes poof. If we don't have a TD form by the first week of August,I'm giving up on the season

Patience Luke!!:):)
Take a look at some past seasons on this site and you will find many years that didn't get going until Early to Mid August

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/

[storms in NC]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT WITH THE N
PORTION MOVING SLOWER NW THAN THE S PORTION MOVING W. WAVE IS
ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/201033.shtml?

How can the northen part develop with that ULL?

[boca]

I been tracking ULL for the past 2 years, how fun is that. Its like tracking a cold front.

[wxman57]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN HAS BEGUN TO SPLIT WITH THE N
PORTION MOVING SLOWER NW THAN THE S PORTION MOVING W. WAVE IS
ALONG 67W/68W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS
WAVE HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/201033.shtml?

How can the northen part develop with that ULL?

As I mentioned in my "scenario 2" around pages 14-17 of this thread, moisture from this wave could be entrained into the upper low. IF the thunderstorms persist long enough, and IF the upper low doesn't zip off to the northeast (as it's forecast to do), then low pressure could develop at the surface and eventually lead to TC formation. A lot of "IFs" there, and the upper low will probably not be hanging around long enough for such development.

[cpdaman]

the only way i could see the N. part develop is if it were to get something going as the ULL moves Slowly away and then our new low (if it could form) recurve NE under the other monster ULL to its NE. yawwwwwwnnnn

[Agua]

I been tracking ULL for the past 2 years, how fun is that. Its like tracking a cold front.

And may you track ULLs, exclusively, for another 50 years.

[MGC]

Upper level conditions are terrible. I'm not expecting anything to become of this for a while if at all.....MGC

[NDG]

There's still some sort of mid level vorticity noted this morning with the northern section near 20.7N/64W, moving northward.

[Category 5]

Not nearly as impressive as yesterday.