2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[aspen]

The Omar-like system popped up again on the 00z, and also appears on the 06z run, although it’s weaker. It stalls out in the middle of the Atlantic for a bit on the 00z run.

Omar-like? The way I am seeing that system it looks like it develops in the MDR and just takes a very sharp recurve; Omar in 2008 started in the ECAR and went NE (a less extreme version of Lenny). Idk I could be wrong, but at least the path that that storm is taking does not seem to be like Omar's.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1445423564556062722

Maybe this is the culprit?

Oops, wrong thread. But yeah it’s not much like Omar anymore, even though the GFS originally had an Omar-like track. That does seem to be the disturbance the GFS has been latching on to.

[aspen]

While the current MJO phase is favoring activity in the WPac, it looks like most of it will remain broad, sloppy monsoon messes. 92W has taken far longer to consolidate than originally modeled, and 93W might end up with a circulation the size of the Philippines. If nothing compact forms and recurves, then the WPac’s impact on the UL setup in the Atlantic should be pretty minimal.

Future Pamela in the EPac could end up as a major, and therefore would create shear over the Caribbean. This strong enhanced Kelvin Wave is moving over the EPac first, so development west of Central America before any Atlantic development despite a -ENSO is completely normal. The combo of the Kelvin Wave and Pamela will, as the CFS suggests, result in the Atlantic not really kicking off until the middle of October. The Euro VP anomaly forecast has rising motion parked over Central America and the Caribbean for like 2 weeks or so and could result in WCar development once Pamela is out of the picture, but who knows at this point.

Also, exactly one year ago today, Delta was bombing out into a pinhole Cat 4.

[Category5Kaiju]

While the current MJO phase is favoring activity in the WPac, it looks like most of it will remain broad, sloppy monsoon messes. 92W has taken far longer to consolidate than originally modeled, and 93W might end up with a circulation the size of the Philippines. If nothing compact forms and recurves, then the WPac’s impact on the UL setup in the Atlantic should be pretty minimal.

Future Pamela in the EPac could end up as a major, and therefore would create shear over the Caribbean. This strong enhanced Kelvin Wave is moving over the EPac first, so development west of Central America before any Atlantic development despite a -ENSO is completely normal. The combo of the Kelvin Wave and Pamela will, as the CFS suggests, result in the Atlantic not really kicking off until the middle of October. The Euro VP anomaly forecast has rising motion parked over Central America and the Caribbean for like 2 weeks or so and could result in WCar development once Pamela is out of the picture, but who knows at this point.

Also, exactly one year ago today, Delta was bombing out into a pinhole Cat 4.

Don't forget the part where Delta suddenly collapsed due to an unforeseen mid level shear increase; I will never forget how people thought a Wilma 2.0 was about to happen only for it to not

But yeah, either way I think we'll see what Pamela does first, as always it looks the EPAC has one last chance to show something significant before the season closes while the Atlantic may need to wait until mid-month to shine once again.

[Steve]

While the current MJO phase is favoring activity in the WPac, it looks like most of it will remain broad, sloppy monsoon messes. 92W has taken far longer to consolidate than originally modeled, and 93W might end up with a circulation the size of the Philippines. If nothing compact forms and recurves, then the WPac’s impact on the UL setup in the Atlantic should be pretty minimal.

Future Pamela in the EPac could end up as a major, and therefore would create shear over the Caribbean. This strong enhanced Kelvin Wave is moving over the EPac first, so development west of Central America before any Atlantic development despite a -ENSO is completely normal. The combo of the Kelvin Wave and Pamela will, as the CFS suggests, result in the Atlantic not really kicking off until the middle of October. The Euro VP anomaly forecast has rising motion parked over Central America and the Caribbean for like 2 weeks or so and could result in WCar development once Pamela is out of the picture, but who knows at this point.

Also, exactly one year ago today, Delta was bombing out into a pinhole Cat 4.

Don't forget the part where Delta suddenly collapsed due to an unforeseen mid level shear increase; I will never forget how people thought a Wilma 2.0 was about to happen only for it to not

But yeah, either way I think we'll see what Pamela does first, as always it looks the EPAC has one last chance to show something significant before the season closes while the Atlantic may need to wait until mid-month to shine once again.

Not sure who was calling Delta, "Wilma", but I'm sure many state-casters were. They started near the same place, but the upper setups weren't remotely the same. Delta was going to the western Gulf which was not something in the cards for Wilma. Wilma did 10x the damage of Delta from a financial standpoint, but that's more because Laura (which hit within 15 miles of the same place Delta did) caused about the same amount of damage ($ wise) as Wilma and had already been through that area. At that point, what's another couple billion?

MJO looks to make one last rotation toward 8/1/2 in the coming weeks. It's uncertain if there would be any US impacts yet, but we'll certainly have to watch adjusted for mid-October climatology.

[Shell Mound]

I'd be shocked if we don't see another hurricane before the end of the season. The EPS and CFS both show a strong CCKW/MJO moving in to the Atlantic in the next 7-10 days, and the CFS and GEFS both show Caribbean shear relaxing during that time. Not to mention, there's always a possibility we get a hurricane of non-tropical origin in the subtropics, like Ophelia/Epsilon. 2021 has NOT behaved like an El Niño - the Atlantic has been much more active than the EPAC - even if shear maps suggest so. I don't expect the late season to be anything like last year but I'd be surprised if we don't see a final burst of activity.

This type of peak-season configuration is definitely more in line with La Niña than El Niño. Given the quiet Pacific, why was the TUTT so persistent?



In particular, note the massive convergence zone over the Caribbean. This is highly atypical for -ENSO and active seasons like 2005, 2017, 2020, et al.

[WiscoWx02]

I'd be shocked if we don't see another hurricane before the end of the season. The EPS and CFS both show a strong CCKW/MJO moving in to the Atlantic in the next 7-10 days, and the CFS and GEFS both show Caribbean shear relaxing during that time. Not to mention, there's always a possibility we get a hurricane of non-tropical origin in the subtropics, like Ophelia/Epsilon. 2021 has NOT behaved like an El Niño - the Atlantic has been much more active than the EPAC - even if shear maps suggest so. I don't expect the late season to be anything like last year but I'd be surprised if we don't see a final burst of activity.

This type of peak-season configuration is definitely more in line with La Niña than El Niño. Given the quiet Pacific, why was the TUTT so persistent?



In particular, note the massive convergence zone over the Caribbean. This is highly atypical for -ENSO and active seasons like 2005, 2017, 2020, et al.

Exactly why I was saying yesterday that this year did not play out like a lot of other La Nina years. I remember some Pro Met's, may have been Eric Webb and Andy Hazelton, talking about how the warm subtropics leads to the development of more TUTT's. Subtropics were anomalously warm again this year which may have been what aided the never ending train of TUTTs and shear that kept a lid on a lot of storms for at least some point in their lives, such as Julian, Kate, Peter. Not sure if Grace struggled with a TUTT at first or not but it struggled with something which kept it much weaker than it could have been. This season could have been WAYYYYYYY worse if not for all those TUTT's we saw if you ask me. Could easily have been a 2017 repeat. Not complaining about their existence obviously.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not sure where I saw it exactly, but I did hear somewhere in the past that in terms of impacts, generally speaking weak La Nina years are more favorable for such to occur (as well as powerful storms) than moderate La Nina years. Not sure why this is the case, but what I do know is it is likely 2021 will be a moderate La Nina year. Didn't 2007, 2010, and 2011 have TUTT issues as well? Those were moderate La Ninas

[aspen]

I'd be shocked if we don't see another hurricane before the end of the season. The EPS and CFS both show a strong CCKW/MJO moving in to the Atlantic in the next 7-10 days, and the CFS and GEFS both show Caribbean shear relaxing during that time. Not to mention, there's always a possibility we get a hurricane of non-tropical origin in the subtropics, like Ophelia/Epsilon. 2021 has NOT behaved like an El Niño - the Atlantic has been much more active than the EPAC - even if shear maps suggest so. I don't expect the late season to be anything like last year but I'd be surprised if we don't see a final burst of activity.

https://i.ibb.co/QdpR3jm/2021VP-1.gif

This type of peak-season configuration is definitely more in line with La Niña than El Niño. Given the quiet Pacific, why was the TUTT so persistent?

https://i.ibb.co/X8h7dfY/2021-VWS-1.gif

In particular, note the massive convergence zone over the Caribbean. This is highly atypical for -ENSO and active seasons like 2005, 2017, 2020, et al.

Exactly why I was saying yesterday that this year did not play out like a lot of other La Nina years. I remember some Pro Met's, may have been Eric Webb and Andy Hazelton, talking about how the warm subtropics leads to the development of more TUTT's. Subtropics were anomalously warm again this year which may have been what aided the never ending train of TUTTs and shear that kept a lid on a lot of storms for at least some point in their lives, such as Julian, Kate, Peter. Not sure if Grace struggled with a TUTT at first or not but it struggled with something which kept it much weaker than it could have been. This season could have been WAYYYYYYY worse if not for all those TUTT's we saw if you ask me. Could easily have been a 2017 repeat. Not complaining about their existence obviously.

2021 didn’t need a lack of a TUTT to be a 2017 repeat. If the ridging had been stronger and the Euro’s forecasts verified, Sam would’ve been a damaging and long-tracking Cat 5 seen in MDR-heavy years like 2004 and 2017. Also, I think Peter would’ve fared slightly better with its TUTT troubles if it managed to consolidate a few days earlier, like models originally forecast. I forget why Peter’s development was so delayed, but it wasn’t from the TUTT.

[cheezyWXguy]

While the current MJO phase is favoring activity in the WPac, it looks like most of it will remain broad, sloppy monsoon messes. 92W has taken far longer to consolidate than originally modeled, and 93W might end up with a circulation the size of the Philippines. If nothing compact forms and recurves, then the WPac’s impact on the UL setup in the Atlantic should be pretty minimal.

Future Pamela in the EPac could end up as a major, and therefore would create shear over the Caribbean. This strong enhanced Kelvin Wave is moving over the EPac first, so development west of Central America before any Atlantic development despite a -ENSO is completely normal. The combo of the Kelvin Wave and Pamela will, as the CFS suggests, result in the Atlantic not really kicking off until the middle of October. The Euro VP anomaly forecast has rising motion parked over Central America and the Caribbean for like 2 weeks or so and could result in WCar development once Pamela is out of the picture, but who knows at this point.

Also, exactly one year ago today, Delta was bombing out into a pinhole Cat 4.

Don't forget the part where Delta suddenly collapsed due to an unforeseen mid level shear increase; I will never forget how people thought a Wilma 2.0 was about to happen only for it to not

But yeah, either way I think we'll see what Pamela does first, as always it looks the EPAC has one last chance to show something significant before the season closes while the Atlantic may need to wait until mid-month to shine once again.

Not sure who was calling Delta, "Wilma", but I'm sure many state-casters were. They started near the same place, but the upper setups weren't remotely the same. Delta was going to the western Gulf which was not something in the cards for Wilma. Wilma did 10x the damage of Delta from a financial standpoint, but that's more because Laura (which hit within 15 miles of the same place Delta did) caused about the same amount of damage ($ wise) as Wilma and had already been through that area. At that point, what's another couple billion?

MJO looks to make one last rotation toward 8/1/2 in the coming weeks. It's uncertain if there would be any US impacts yet, but we'll certainly have to watch adjusted for mid-October climatology.

The Wilma references were in relation to how everyone thought it would explode in the western Caribbean with its tiny pinhole eye, not the track itself. Delta’s track was pretty locked in from the start.

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1445762030179430400




Pro's are starting to catch on too. Either the models are failing to acknowledge the Kelvin Wave expected to pass through, or the Kelvin Wave is going to kick the Pacific into gear so much that it shears the Atlantic significantly and that shear lasts long enough to allow the Kelvin Wave to pass by the Atlantic without even raising an eyebrow.

Edit: Just my hypothesis, could be for a wide variety of other reasons.

[skyline385]

Don't forget the part where Delta suddenly collapsed due to an unforeseen mid level shear increase; I will never forget how people thought a Wilma 2.0 was about to happen only for it to not

But yeah, either way I think we'll see what Pamela does first, as always it looks the EPAC has one last chance to show something significant before the season closes while the Atlantic may need to wait until mid-month to shine once again.

Not sure who was calling Delta, "Wilma", but I'm sure many state-casters were. They started near the same place, but the upper setups weren't remotely the same. Delta was going to the western Gulf which was not something in the cards for Wilma. Wilma did 10x the damage of Delta from a financial standpoint, but that's more because Laura (which hit within 15 miles of the same place Delta did) caused about the same amount of damage ($ wise) as Wilma and had already been through that area. At that point, what's another couple billion?

MJO looks to make one last rotation toward 8/1/2 in the coming weeks. It's uncertain if there would be any US impacts yet, but we'll certainly have to watch adjusted for mid-October climatology.

The Wilma references were in relation to how everyone thought it would explode in the western Caribbean with its tiny pinhole eye, not the track itself. Delta’s track was pretty locked in from the start.

It did explode though, wind speeds went up by 70 mph in a 24 hr period and it went from TS to Cat 4 in 28 hours. Only Wilma had a rate of intensification faster than Delta which is when the Wilma references started pouring in...

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1445762030179430400

Pro's are starting to catch on too. Either the models are failing to acknowledge the Kelvin Wave expected to pass through, or the Kelvin Wave is going to kick the Pacific into gear so much that it shears the Atlantic significantly and that shear lasts long enough to allow the Kelvin Wave to pass by the Atlantic without even raising an eyebrow.

Edit: Just my hypothesis, could be for a wide variety of other reasons.

If you were to ask me that question, I personally think it would be the former. The EPAC this year has remarkably underperformed, and I just cannot see how it would make logical sense for the basin (in an impending moderate La Nina phase, not to mention the -PDO and -PMM) to all of a sudden kick into high gear in October of all months. Others may have said it too, but I personally would be very shocked if we do not see a hurricane or reach at least Adria before this season ends. The only seasons that featured no activity in October and November were solid El Nino years like 1982 or 2006.

[aspen]

If Pamela forms and somehow manages to become a curve-into-Mexico Cat 5, that would be a huge sign that something isn’t right with the atmosphere. Only four other storms like this have been recorded — Kenna ‘02, Rick ‘09, Patricia ‘15, and Willa ‘18 — and have only been seen in +ENSO years. This ranges from the warm-neutral/weak Niño 2018 to the Super Niño 2015, with 2002 and 2009 falling in between. By contrast, 2021 is heading into a moderate La Niña, with Niño 3.4 regions having cooled all the way down to -0.6C average. Seeing a +ENSO specific phenomena in a significant -ENSO year means the atmosphere is not responding correctly to the cooling of the ENSO regions. Maybe it’s a sign that 2022 will be a +ENSO year?

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure who was calling Delta, "Wilma", but I'm sure many state-casters were. They started near the same place, but the upper setups weren't remotely the same. Delta was going to the western Gulf which was not something in the cards for Wilma. Wilma did 10x the damage of Delta from a financial standpoint, but that's more because Laura (which hit within 15 miles of the same place Delta did) caused about the same amount of damage ($ wise) as Wilma and had already been through that area. At that point, what's another couple billion?

MJO looks to make one last rotation toward 8/1/2 in the coming weeks. It's uncertain if there would be any US impacts yet, but we'll certainly have to watch adjusted for mid-October climatology.

The Wilma references were in relation to how everyone thought it would explode in the western Caribbean with its tiny pinhole eye, not the track itself. Delta’s track was pretty locked in from the start.

It did explode though, wind speeds went up by 70 mph in a 24 hr period and it went from TS to Cat 4 in 28 hours. Only Wilma had a rate of intensification faster than Delta which is when the Wilma references started pouring in...

Yep, I didn’t say it didn’t, although the RI got cut off a lot earlier than people expected. Most on the board at the time expected a shoe-in for cat5.

[Category5Kaiju]

If Pamela forms and somehow manages to become a curve-into-Mexico Cat 5, that would be a huge sign that something isn’t right with the atmosphere. Only four other storms like this have been recorded — Kenna ‘02, Rick ‘09, Patricia ‘15, and Willa ‘18 — and have only been seen in +ENSO years. This ranges from the warm-neutral/weak Niño 2018 to the Super Niño 2015, with 2002 and 2009 falling in between. By contrast, 2021 is heading into a moderate La Niña, with Niño 3.4 regions having cooled all the way down to -0.6C average. Seeing a +ENSO specific phenomena in a significant -ENSO year means the atmosphere is not responding correctly to the cooling of the ENSO regions. Maybe it’s a sign that 2022 will be a +ENSO year?

Personally, I don't think we will see a Cat 5, and I still think it is way too early to make judgements about the 2022's ENSO phase. From all I understand, the Atlantic has been active this season and the EPAC not so much, which is a classic pattern you would see in a moderate La Nina year. Now it is interesting to note, but the EPAC can still get major hurricanes in October in a La Nina year (Lester in 1998, Norbert in 2008, Kenneth in 2011, and Sandra in 2016 as examples), and if anything I would say that the ceiling for Pamela would realistically be a 3/4. Also worth mentioning while it is still very early, if we were to have a late-peaking moderate La Nina this year, then that could discourage the chances of a significant El Nino from actually happening in 2022, and this is not accounting for the potential strong WAM's effects as we have seen in recent years persist. I will also say that a recurving Cat 5 in the EPAC does not have any noticeable impact on the following year's ENSO state; 2003 was a warm neutral, 2010 was a moderate La Nina, 2016 was a weak La Nina, and 2019 was a cool neutral.

[AlphaToOmega]

I'd be shocked if we don't see another hurricane before the end of the season. The EPS and CFS both show a strong CCKW/MJO moving in to the Atlantic in the next 7-10 days, and the CFS and GEFS both show Caribbean shear relaxing during that time. Not to mention, there's always a possibility we get a hurricane of non-tropical origin in the subtropics, like Ophelia/Epsilon. 2021 has NOT behaved like an El Niño - the Atlantic has been much more active than the EPAC - even if shear maps suggest so. I don't expect the late season to be anything like last year but I'd be surprised if we don't see a final burst of activity.

https://i.ibb.co/QdpR3jm/2021VP-1.gif

This type of peak-season configuration is definitely more in line with La Niña than El Niño. Given the quiet Pacific, why was the TUTT so persistent?

https://i.ibb.co/X8h7dfY/2021-VWS-1.gif

In particular, note the massive convergence zone over the Caribbean. This is highly atypical for -ENSO and active seasons like 2005, 2017, 2020, et al.

Exactly why I was saying yesterday that this year did not play out like a lot of other La Nina years. I remember some Pro Met's, may have been Eric Webb and Andy Hazelton, talking about how the warm subtropics leads to the development of more TUTT's. Subtropics were anomalously warm again this year which may have been what aided the never ending train of TUTTs and shear that kept a lid on a lot of storms for at least some point in their lives, such as Julian, Kate, Peter. Not sure if Grace struggled with a TUTT at first or not but it struggled with something which kept it much weaker than it could have been. This season could have been WAYYYYYYY worse if not for all those TUTT's we saw if you ask me. Could easily have been a 2017 repeat. Not complaining about their existence obviously.

Comparing 2021 to other La Nina years:
















High wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean is not atypical during September for La Nina years. 2001 and 2016 featured such a pattern.

[hurricanetrack]

Figured I would post my video discussion for today here since it is relevant to this thread towards the end. MJO looks to swing back around and the overall pattern at least suggests that it's not over 'til it's over...which it's not by default anyway but you get the gist...

[youtube]https://youtu.be/SW6BYhMTyf8[/youtube]

[hurricanetrack]

If Pamela forms and somehow manages to become a curve-into-Mexico Cat 5, that would be a huge sign that something isn’t right with the atmosphere. Only four other storms like this have been recorded — Kenna ‘02, Rick ‘09, Patricia ‘15, and Willa ‘18 — and have only been seen in +ENSO years. This ranges from the warm-neutral/weak Niño 2018 to the Super Niño 2015, with 2002 and 2009 falling in between. By contrast, 2021 is heading into a moderate La Niña, with Niño 3.4 regions having cooled all the way down to -0.6C average. Seeing a +ENSO specific phenomena in a significant -ENSO year means the atmosphere is not responding correctly to the cooling of the ENSO regions. Maybe it’s a sign that 2022 will be a +ENSO year?

I would not go so far as to say "something isn't right with the atmosphere" as we need only to look at the overall pattern. MJO is not in the Atlantic. Deep trough is over the western US and it's late in the season - so east Pac systems are more likely than not to recurve. It's an anomaly, an outlier against the overall pattern which has generally favored the Atlantic since late May. Just my observations....

[WiscoWx02]

https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1445762030179430400

Pro's are starting to catch on too. Either the models are failing to acknowledge the Kelvin Wave expected to pass through, or the Kelvin Wave is going to kick the Pacific into gear so much that it shears the Atlantic significantly and that shear lasts long enough to allow the Kelvin Wave to pass by the Atlantic without even raising an eyebrow.

Edit: Just my hypothesis, could be for a wide variety of other reasons.

If you were to ask me that question, I personally think it would be the former. The EPAC this year has remarkably underperformed, and I just cannot see how it would make logical sense for the basin (in an impending moderate La Nina phase, not to mention the -PDO and -PMM) to all of a sudden kick into high gear in October of all months. Others may have said it too, but I personally would be very shocked if we do not see a hurricane or reach at least Adria before this season ends. The only seasons that featured no activity in October and November were solid El Nino years like 1982 or 2006.

Well.....maybe I should revise my thinking or what I have been saying if we have only had 2 years without any tropical activity and those were El Nino years. I'll adjust my idea to this....we aren't done in terms of named storms. We could very well see more subtropical slop that could use up a couple names for sure. As for the Caribbean Sea idea....idk guys, I'm just not sold yet, mostly cause things just keep getting pushed back more and more. That doesn't mean I am not open to changing my mind. If the models are right, we still have at least 2-3 weeks of quite so plenty of time to think it over.

Edit: What is the best model to use for MJO forecasting? Is there one that tends to perform better than the others in terms of GFS vs. CFS vs. Empirical Wave Propo.?

[Iceresistance]