2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AlphaToOmega]

This time of year, wind shear AND SSTs have been more favorable than last year. With an imminent CCKW, the models probably need a new pair of prescription glasses.

[LarryWx]

This time of year, wind shear AND SSTs have been more favorable than last year. With an imminent CCKW, the models probably need a new pair of prescription glasses.

https://i.postimg.cc/7L10RxXh/compday-OKjt5-BBUw-F.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/VNPX4Sq2/compday-w-Ku-Np-J3-ri.gif

I think you’re overstating the threat based on climo back to 1851, even taking into account global warming/warmer oceans. Once past 10/21, the climo based threat starts to drop pretty markedly. Just like climo says to stay on pretty high alert for possible threats through about 10/21, that same climo also says that the threat level begins to ease pretty sharply just afterward.

With GEFS/EPS/GEPS still showing no more than a small % of members with threats at any point in time through 10/25 and with models having done quite well recently with their call for a quiet first half of October/very quiet second peak, I’d say that we can now say that the threat level to land masses of anything of a high impact is coming down markedly. Not near zero yet, but getting down pretty low now even with La Niña redeveloping and Caribbean SSTs at their warmest so far this season. However, I’d still be wary about the POSSIBILITY of more activity forming mainly in the W Caribbean. I’m not saying the season is over yet even with the threat level dropping quite a bit.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so the most recent GFS operational run shows nothing significant develop in the WPAC after the current storms dissipate throughout the month, while in the EPAC nothing significant forms after Pamela throughout the month, and in the Atlantic of course nothing significant forms throughout the month. I... I don't know what's happening here quite frankly.

[toad strangler]

This time of year, wind shear AND SSTs have been more favorable than last year. With an imminent CCKW, the models probably need a new pair of prescription glasses.

https://i.postimg.cc/7L10RxXh/compday-OKjt5-BBUw-F.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/VNPX4Sq2/compday-w-Ku-Np-J3-ri.gif

I think you’re overstating the threat based on climo back to 1851, even taking into account global warming/warmer oceans. Once past 10/21, the climo based threat starts to drop pretty markedly. Just like climo says to stay on pretty high alert for possible threats through about 10/21, that same climo also says that the threat level begins to ease pretty sharply just afterward.

With GEFS/EPS/GEPS still showing no more than a small % of members with threats at any point in time through 10/25 and with models having done quite well recently with their call for a quiet first half of October/very quiet second peak, I’d say that we can now say that the threat level to land masses of anything of a high impact is coming down markedly. Not near zero yet, but getting down pretty low now even with La Niña redeveloping and Caribbean SSTs at their warmest so far this season. However, I’d still be wary about the POSSIBILITY of more activity forming mainly in the W Caribbean. I’m not saying the season is over yet even with the threat level dropping quite a bit.

Yep, as far as the CONUS goes, a depression or TS type system is definitely on the table going into very late OCT and through most of November. But, the chances of a hurricane landfall have already begun to free fall given short to mid range model output combined with the ever advancing calendar. Climo's influence will only grow stronger by the day starting in less than two weeks.

[SFLcane]

This time of year, wind shear AND SSTs have been more favorable than last year. With an imminent CCKW, the models probably need a new pair of prescription glasses.

https://i.postimg.cc/7L10RxXh/compday-OKjt5-BBUw-F.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/VNPX4Sq2/compday-w-Ku-Np-J3-ri.gif

I think you’re overstating the threat based on climo back to 1851, even taking into account global warming/warmer oceans. Once past 10/21, the climo based threat starts to drop pretty markedly. Just like climo says to stay on pretty high alert for possible threats through about 10/21, that same climo also says that the threat level begins to ease pretty sharply just afterward.

With GEFS/EPS/GEPS still showing no more than a small % of members with threats at any point in time through 10/25 and with models having done quite well recently with their call for a quiet first half of October/very quiet second peak, I’d say that we can now say that the threat level to land masses of anything of a high impact is coming down markedly. Not near zero yet, but getting down pretty low now even with La Niña redeveloping and Caribbean SSTs at their warmest so far this season. However, I’d still be wary about the POSSIBILITY of more activity forming mainly in the W Caribbean. I’m not saying the season is over yet even with the threat level dropping quite a bit.

Yep, as far as the CONUS goes, a depression or TS type system is definitely on the table going into very late OCT and through most of November. But, the chances of a hurricane landfall have already begun to free fall given short to mid range model output combined with the ever advancing calendar. Climo's influence will only grow stronger by the day starting in less than two weeks.

It’s over for the Conus and Florida i feel pretty good about that. If and that’s a big if something develops in the Caribbean it will likely stay down there.

[LarryWx]

I think you’re overstating the threat based on climo back to 1851, even taking into account global warming/warmer oceans. Once past 10/21, the climo based threat starts to drop pretty markedly. Just like climo says to stay on pretty high alert for possible threats through about 10/21, that same climo also says that the threat level begins to ease pretty sharply just afterward.

With GEFS/EPS/GEPS still showing no more than a small % of members with threats at any point in time through 10/25 and with models having done quite well recently with their call for a quiet first half of October/very quiet second peak, I’d say that we can now say that the threat level to land masses of anything of a high impact is coming down markedly. Not near zero yet, but getting down pretty low now even with La Niña redeveloping and Caribbean SSTs at their warmest so far this season. However, I’d still be wary about the POSSIBILITY of more activity forming mainly in the W Caribbean. I’m not saying the season is over yet even with the threat level dropping quite a bit.

Yep, as far as the CONUS goes, a depression or TS type system is definitely on the table going into very late OCT and through most of November. But, the chances of a hurricane landfall have already begun to free fall given short to mid range model output combined with the ever advancing calendar. Climo's influence will only grow stronger by the day starting in less than two weeks.

It’s over for the Conus and Florida i feel pretty good about that. If and that’s a big if something develops in the Caribbean it will likely stay down there.[/quote

I’d agree with this post 100% if you had out the word “nearly” before over. Otherwise, spot on.

[psyclone]

With such a peaky climo, the perennial argument that favorability is just 10-15 days out is seconds from splatting on the pavement. At this point, if something of consequence was going to happen (and pose some level of risk to CONUS) it would most likely be in the pipeline now. It isn't. We talk about the 8-20 bell ring every year for good reason...but when does the bell unring? 9-20? Maybe 9-30? Not sure but it's worth thinking about. At this point it feels like we're well past the date and the suite of CPC outlooks doesn't really depict a wet signal over FL for the next few weeks which is a high probability tell..

[Ubuntwo]

Why does there need to be a “season-ending front” to likely end a season for all practical purposes? From where did this concept originate? Please provide links to credible sources on this idea.

Anyway, there’s a good reason for the models thread to be very quiet. There’s been and still is very limited activity on the two week models/ensembles. This takes us through 10/25, which is past the end of the climo secondary/final peak of the season. Thus, the outlook for future big threats to land masses is improving a good bit from day to day. Not over, but improving, especially for Conus.

Yes, due to global warming, the active part of seasons is likely ending a bit later (and starting a bit earlier) on average. But regardless, once past around 10/21, the threat to even S FL goes down markedly per historical stats. As I posted before, the period 10/17-21 may actually be the highest 5 day threat period of the entire season climo wise to south FL in terms of frequency of TCs being there or very closeby per past seasons. But once just past that period, the threat drops off rapidly leaving only a few outliers.

Of course there does not need to be a front to end a season. But I suspect the reason SFL threat drops so dramatically after 10/21 is because that is roughly climo for the start of dry season. Upper level winds, dry air, and cold air advection behind said front basically kill the chances for anything purely tropical in those areas. We are almost in the clear now but dry season would finish the job. And of course deep Caribbean action can occur after the CONUS shuts down. Just my two cents.

[AlphaToOmega]

[LarryWx]

Why does there need to be a “season-ending front” to likely end a season for all practical purposes? From where did this concept originate? Please provide links to credible sources on this idea.

Anyway, there’s a good reason for the models thread to be very quiet. There’s been and still is very limited activity on the two week models/ensembles. This takes us through 10/25, which is past the end of the climo secondary/final peak of the season. Thus, the outlook for future big threats to land masses is improving a good bit from day to day. Not over, but improving, especially for Conus.

Yes, due to global warming, the active part of seasons is likely ending a bit later (and starting a bit earlier) on average. But regardless, once past around 10/21, the threat to even S FL goes down markedly per historical stats. As I posted before, the period 10/17-21 may actually be the highest 5 day threat period of the entire season climo wise to south FL in terms of frequency of TCs being there or very closeby per past seasons. But once just past that period, the threat drops off rapidly leaving only a few outliers.

Of course there does not need to be a front to end a season. But I suspect the reason SFL threat drops so dramatically after 10/21 is because that is roughly climo for the start of dry season. Upper level winds, dry air, and cold air advection behind said front basically kill the chances for anything purely tropical in those areas. We are almost in the clear now but dry season would finish the job. And of course deep Caribbean action can occur after the CONUS shuts down. Just my two cents.

But even if a cold front comes through, can't it reverse at least temporarily soon after that cooler and drier airmass modifies? Don't dewpoints often recover and upper winds lighten for a period even after the first solid cold front reaches the SE GOM/FL Straits?

[Ubuntwo]

Why does there need to be a “season-ending front” to likely end a season for all practical purposes? From where did this concept originate? Please provide links to credible sources on this idea.

Anyway, there’s a good reason for the models thread to be very quiet. There’s been and still is very limited activity on the two week models/ensembles. This takes us through 10/25, which is past the end of the climo secondary/final peak of the season. Thus, the outlook for future big threats to land masses is improving a good bit from day to day. Not over, but improving, especially for Conus.

Yes, due to global warming, the active part of seasons is likely ending a bit later (and starting a bit earlier) on average. But regardless, once past around 10/21, the threat to even S FL goes down markedly per historical stats. As I posted before, the period 10/17-21 may actually be the highest 5 day threat period of the entire season climo wise to south FL in terms of frequency of TCs being there or very closeby per past seasons. But once just past that period, the threat drops off rapidly leaving only a few outliers.

Of course there does not need to be a front to end a season. But I suspect the reason SFL threat drops so dramatically after 10/21 is because that is roughly climo for the start of dry season. Upper level winds, dry air, and cold air advection behind said front basically kill the chances for anything purely tropical in those areas. We are almost in the clear now but dry season would finish the job. And of course deep Caribbean action can occur after the CONUS shuts down. Just my two cents.

But even if a cold front comes through, can't it reverse at least temporarily soon after that cooler and drier airmass modifies? Don't dewpoints often recover and upper winds lighten for a period even after the first solid cold front reaches the SE GOM/FL Straits?

You're right and fronts can even provide baroclinic support to tropical cyclones directly interacting with them. Wilma and Zeta come to mind. That said there is usually a solid dent in SSTs after the first big front and they don't recover much. Former NHC director Bill Read said he starts breathing easy after the second front. For the CONUS, the clock is relentless...

[chaser1]

Season will likely end following the first cold-front that fully sweeps the Caribbean. I don't see THAT horizon approaching anytime soon. Until then, models will continue to show nada (right up to the point when they suddenly light up like the 4th of July).

All the more reason to believe that the models may just be having a hard time understanding that after the favorable CCKW passes the EPAC then it'll likely be the Atlantic that wakes up next. For them to not show the season-ending front but also show no significant activity pick up in the next weeks or so is just bizarre.

Why does there need to be a “season-ending front” to likely end a season for all practical purposes? From where did this concept originate? Please provide links to credible sources on this idea.

Anyway, there’s a good reason for the models thread to be very quiet. There’s been and still is very limited activity on the two week models/ensembles. This takes us through 10/25, which is past the end of the climo secondary/final peak of the season. Thus, the outlook for future big threats to land masses is improving a good bit from day to day. Not over, but improving, especially for Conus.

Yes, due to global warming, the active part of seasons is likely ending a bit later (and starting a bit earlier) on average. But regardless, once past around 10/21, the threat to even S FL goes down markedly per historical stats. As I posted before, the period 10/17-21 may actually be the highest 5 day threat period of the entire season climo wise to south FL in terms of frequency of TCs being there or very closeby per past seasons. But once just past that period, the threat drops off rapidly leaving only a few outliers.

Hey there Larry, how's it going. I don't believe that a season-ending front is prerequisite for a season to end. It's reasonable that myriad of other contributing factors (cool SST's, high surface pressures, strong upper level westerlies, etc) would simply leave a "weak sumo wrestler" ending season right there on the mat and waiting to get dragged off to the locker room.

My point simply being that given climo, marginally conducive conditions (somewhere), a supposed increase in LaNina conditions, a little warm water, and a touch of MJO certainly suggests significant odds of continued activity - especially during what has clearly been a busy season.

An early strong cold front can temporarily put a damper on development, but the tropics can often push that stable air Mason-Dixon line back north pretty quick. My reference to a Caribbean sweeping cold front goes way back to conversations with a few of the NHC old-timers. That assumption may not literally be 100% fool-proof but generally suggests that the westerlies have migrated far enough to the south to likely mitigate what once were ripe warmer & unstable conditions and the likely transition toward late Fall & Winter.

[AlphaToOmega]

I sincerely hope we do not fall into the mindset of ignoring all landmasses outside of the CONUS. Even if there are no major hurricane impacts to the CONUS (which is possible), there could still be major impacts to the Antilles or Central America.

[Category5Kaiju]

I sincerely hope we do not fall into the mindset of ignoring all landmasses outside of the CONUS. Even if there are no major hurricane impacts to the CONUS (which is possible), there could still be major impacts to the Antilles or Central America.

Yeah I agree, I live in the CONUS but as a hurricane tracker I still care about the well-being of all Atlantic landmasses, and seeing a storm like Matthew, Dorian, Eta, or Iota was just as memorable as seeing a storm like Harvey, Irma, Michael, or Ida despite the former ones not decimating parts of the CONUS directly. Also, let's keep in mind that there are areas like Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, which are part of the US.

No matter what, I am always interested in tracking a major storm even if it does not hit the CONUS (part of this personal inspiration sort of stems from watching Josh Morgerman's chases, where he goes out of his way to intercept a myriad of major cyclones, CONUS-threats or not).

[toad strangler]

I sincerely hope we do not fall into the mindset of ignoring all landmasses outside of the CONUS. Even if there are no major hurricane impacts to the CONUS (which is possible), there could still be major impacts to the Antilles or Central America.

Nobody is ignoring anything. Come on. This place will always be active with a storm in the basin. Please don’t over react to those who are weighing in on their specific area of interest.

The facts right now are that models are showing what is very likely the end to the season where an overwhelming majority of members reside. That’s what’s on the docket. That season end does NOT mean zero CONUS activity. It's been very well laid out that it's a Cat 1 minimum landfall on up we are talking about.

[WiscoWx02]

I sincerely hope we do not fall into the mindset of ignoring all landmasses outside of the CONUS. Even if there are no major hurricane impacts to the CONUS (which is possible), there could still be major impacts to the Antilles or Central America.

Nobody is ignoring anything. Come on. This place will always be active with a storm in the basin. Please don’t over react to those who are weighing in on their specific area of interest.

The facts right now are that models are showing what is very likely the end to the season where an overwhelming majority of members reside. That’s what’s on the docket. That season end does NOT mean zero CONUS activity. It's been very well laid out that it's a Cat 1 minimum landfall on up we are talking about.

I have definitely never ignored Central America, that is impossible after last year or Nate (2017), Otto (2016) etc......Although I seriously doubt their going to see any hurricane impacts either at this point for the remainder of the season. Maybe some messy monsoonal gyre stuff that barely takes a name but even that seems a bit of a stretch at this point. In terms of the models, we are done. I don't believe them 100% and still wouldn't be shocked to see one or two more named storms but would would be quite shocked to see a hurricane anywhere in the basin. I don't want to suggest however, that a weak, sloppy storm can't cause a lot of damage in Central America cause they certainly can with all the terrain and landslides and whatnot. But in regards to major hurricanes that some are counting on, the big activity is going to have to weight until next year more likely than not, or maybe even 2023.

[Category5Kaiju]

I sincerely hope we do not fall into the mindset of ignoring all landmasses outside of the CONUS. Even if there are no major hurricane impacts to the CONUS (which is possible), there could still be major impacts to the Antilles or Central America.

Nobody is ignoring anything. Come on. This place will always be active with a storm in the basin. Please don’t over react to those who are weighing in on their specific area of interest.

The facts right now are that models are showing what is very likely the end to the season where an overwhelming majority of members reside. That’s what’s on the docket. That season end does NOT mean zero CONUS activity. It's been very well laid out that it's a Cat 1 minimum landfall on up we are talking about.

I have definitely never ignored Central America, that is impossible after last year or Nate (2017), Otto (2016) etc......Although I seriously doubt their going to see any hurricane impacts either at this point for the remainder of the season. Maybe some messy monsoonal gyre stuff that barely takes a name but even that seems a bit of a stretch at this point. In terms of the models, we are done. I don't believe them 100% and still wouldn't be shocked to see one or two more named storms but would would be quite shocked to see a hurricane anywhere in the basin. I don't want to suggest however, that a weak, sloppy storm can't cause a lot of damage in Central America cause they certainly can with all the terrain and landslides and whatnot. But in regards to major hurricanes that some are counting on, the big activity is going to have to weight until next year more likely than not, or maybe even 2023.

I will caution though that the models still do not see out into November, and there have been a handful of La Nina years (1999, 2001, 2008, 2020 as examples) that featured strong hurricanes during then. Not saying it will happen this year, but you may never know (with time being the only solution). Also I feel like given the ENSO state's uncertainty for 2022 and 2023, saying that "major hurricanes that some are counting on, the big activity is going to have to wait until next year more likely than not, or maybe even 2023" is a bit early to say; as you may know predicting ENSO before May or June is really hard to efficiently do

[kevin]

I sincerely hope we do not fall into the mindset of ignoring all landmasses outside of the CONUS. Even if there are no major hurricane impacts to the CONUS (which is possible), there could still be major impacts to the Antilles or Central America.

Nobody is ignoring anything. Come on. This place will always be active with a storm in the basin. Please don’t over react to those who are weighing in on their specific area of interest.

The facts right now are that models are showing what is very likely the end to the season where an overwhelming majority of members reside. That’s what’s on the docket. That season end does NOT mean zero CONUS activity. It's been very well laid out that it's a Cat 1 minimum landfall on up we are talking about.

I have definitely never ignored Central America, that is impossible after last year or Nate (2017), Otto (2016) etc......Although I seriously doubt their going to see any hurricane impacts either at this point for the remainder of the season. Maybe some messy monsoonal gyre stuff that barely takes a name but even that seems a bit of a stretch at this point. In terms of the models, we are done. I don't believe them 100% and still wouldn't be shocked to see one or two more named storms but would would be quite shocked to see a hurricane anywhere in the basin. I don't want to suggest however, that a weak, sloppy storm can't cause a lot of damage in Central America cause they certainly can with all the terrain and landslides and whatnot. But in regards to major hurricanes that some are counting on, the big activity is going to have to weight until next year more likely than not, or maybe even 2023.

Just want to quickly respond to this that at this point there is no reliable way to make predictions regarding the possibility of 'big activity' next year or if we have to wait until 2023. We're currently discussing whether a system might form in the next month and even that is pretty much guesswork beyond 200 hours or so. I know there are long-term indicators, but I don't think we have information that could support possible activity or lack of activity one year in advance. The uncertainty in ENSO predictions before the spring barrier and the fact that it's so long-term just makes it near-impossible to say something right now about next year with any certainty.

[AlphaToOmega]

Nobody is ignoring anything. Come on. This place will always be active with a storm in the basin. Please don’t over react to those who are weighing in on their specific area of interest.

The facts right now are that models are showing what is very likely the end to the season where an overwhelming majority of members reside. That’s what’s on the docket. That season end does NOT mean zero CONUS activity. It's been very well laid out that it's a Cat 1 minimum landfall on up we are talking about.

I have definitely never ignored Central America, that is impossible after last year or Nate (2017), Otto (2016) etc......Although I seriously doubt their going to see any hurricane impacts either at this point for the remainder of the season. Maybe some messy monsoonal gyre stuff that barely takes a name but even that seems a bit of a stretch at this point. In terms of the models, we are done. I don't believe them 100% and still wouldn't be shocked to see one or two more named storms but would would be quite shocked to see a hurricane anywhere in the basin. I don't want to suggest however, that a weak, sloppy storm can't cause a lot of damage in Central America cause they certainly can with all the terrain and landslides and whatnot. But in regards to major hurricanes that some are counting on, the big activity is going to have to weight until next year more likely than not, or maybe even 2023.

I will caution though that the models still do not see out into November, and there have been a handful of La Nina years (1999, 2001, 2008, 2020 as examples) that featured strong hurricanes during then. Not saying it will happen this year, but you may never know (with time being the only solution). Also I feel like given the ENSO state's uncertainty for 2022 and 2023, saying that "major hurricanes that some are counting on, the big activity is going to have to wait until next year more likely than not, or maybe even 2023" is a bit early to say; as you may know predicting ENSO before May or June is really hard to efficiently do

I distinctly remember models being awful with genesis in August. In any case, the CFSv2 and ECMWF show favorable VP patterns throughout October. It is hard to see how October could be inactive.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also I suppose this should be in the models thread, but I will point out something I personally have noticed, particularly with the ensemble guidances. For instance, the most recent GEFS ensembles show a dead Atlantic throughout this month but with copious activity off the coast of West C America and Mexico (as if we were in an El Nino-degree), but the most recent GEPS ensembles show activity in the WCAR make an uptick by the October 20-25ish timeframe or so with very limited activity in the far EPAC. Perhaps my question would be how confident should we be that the CONUS or any other landmasses in the Atlantic will be safe from any major storms this month, and if so what can we attribute this to? A CCKW that just gets stuck in the EPAC and never progresses eastward? Or is it something else?