More Tropical Developement - HOU-GAL Bear Watch for next Sun

[Thunder44]

I'm going to bump this bear watch given 91E now in the EPAC and the ridge over Texas/GOM potentially breaking down later this week allowing this area to creep north into the BOC.

Even if it does get into the BOC, it's more likely make landfall well south of the border. The models keep trying to build back the ridge north of the system, which may force it back westward or NW. I think the threat to Texas from this system is very low at this time.

[Frank2]

...it's more likely make landfall well south of the border.

Huh? If there were something out there to make landfall, that is...

[Thunder44]

...it's more to likely make landfall well south of the border.

Huh? If there were something out there to make landfall, that is...

Yeah, it's looking even more likely there won't be TC to begin with.

[KWT]

Yeah models are taking the broad distrubance towards S.Mexico, be it in whatever form. I still wouldn't be surprised to see something develop in the BoC but we will see, whatever happens for now focus is not on the US.

[deltadog03]

I think we should watch what might come out of the central carrib. Euro shows/showed a weak wave on some recent runs. The gfs had shown this as well, but has backed off lately.

[Ivanhater]

Farmers Almanac
We expect an active tropical season in 2008, with the Gulf Coast directly in the crosshairs for hurricanes in mid-July, mid-August, and mid-September. The associated tropical moisture from such systems is likely to flow northward, creating a threat of excessive rainfall over many eastern locations.

16th-19th Windy conditions, with squalls for the Southern Plains. Hurricane threat for the Texas, Louisiana coasts.

[KWT]

I wonder what wave the ECM is showing then deltadog, maybe the wave that appears to be out in the mid-Atlantic right now with a pretty neat circulation or something else?

[StormspinnerD2]

I wonder what wave the ECM is showing then deltadog, maybe the wave that appears to be out in the mid-Atlantic right now with a pretty neat circulation or something else?

Probably not, that little system looks like it will get eaten by a front soon.

[flwxwatcher]

...it's more likely make landfall well south of the border.

Huh? If there were something out there to make landfall, that is...

Yep.. not much to watch at the moment, which is par for the course for this time of the year.

[Sjones]

Farmers Almanac
We expect an active tropical season in 2008, with the Gulf Coast directly in the crosshairs for hurricanes in mid-July, mid-August, and mid-September. The associated tropical moisture from such systems is likely to flow northward, creating a threat of excessive rainfall over many eastern locations.

16th-19th Windy conditions, with squalls for the Southern Plains. Hurricane threat for the Texas, Louisiana coasts.

I've read that as well, I'll be waiting to see the turn out of that

[srainhoutx]

A little hope in the longer term of some tropical rains for our area. Snipets from HGX, CRP, and LCH AFD's this morning...

HGX

IN THE LONG TERM...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A TUTT LOW
WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM NEAR FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE
MIDDLE TO LAST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT DEVELOPMENT COUPLED WITH
THE SHIFT IN THE RIDGE AXIS WOULD SIGNAL AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.

CRP


.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY DRAWING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS...FINALLY BRINGING AN END TO OUR
3 WEEK DRY SPELL. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE ON
FRI WITH SCATTERED POPS SAT-MON...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAKNESS PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE
OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THINK THE MAIN BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WWD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

Also LCH..



LONG TERM...
LITTLE CHANCE TO INHERITED FCST. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE WEST WILL LIFT OUT ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION. KEPT A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AS FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW INCREASING PWS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WEAK LOW IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST OVER THE GULF...PRODUCING A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE. HAVE RETAINED SLT CHC POPS FOR EXTENDED FCST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE WARM SIDE.


Here's hoping we can get some rain out of this. We need it!

[Frank2]

I never had good vibes when it came to the Farmer's Almanac - when I was a child, the media used to issue their hurricane season prediction (er, forecast), similar to how it's done today for Bill Gray, etc. - over the decades since then, FA lost credibility since most realized they are about 50% right - or wrong, which is as accurate as anything you or I could predict (er, forecast)...

[flwxwatcher]

I never had good vibes when it came to the Farmer's Almanac - when I was a child, the media used to issue their hurricane season prediction (er, forecast), similar to how it's done today for Bill Gray, etc. - over the decades since then, FA lost credibility since most realized they are about 50% right - or wrong, which is as accurate as anything you or I could predict (er, forecast)...

Yes, the Farmers Almanac is pretty much for entertainment purposes only.

[Meso]

[tailgater]

Looks like a good bit of moisture headed your way Texas. And a little wave in Central Atl. weakening.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[A1A]

Looks like a good bit of moisture headed your way Texas. And a little wave in Central Atl. weakening.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Cool graphic but not sure I understand it - what is "Total Precipitable Water"?

[Derek Ortt]

TPW is the total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere within a 1m^2 column

[srainhoutx]

Interesting AFD from KBRO this afternoon...

000
FXUS64 KBRO 051838
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
138 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...STREAMER SHOWERS BEGINNING TO FIZZLE OUT OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME...AND RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
TRENDS SUGGEST CLOUDS THINNING THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH BREEZY
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO
MOISTEN OVERNIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.9
AND 2.25 INCHES TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH
SOMEWHAT WEAKER SURFACE WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING...RESULT WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK DURING DAYLIGHT...WITH STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL COUNTIES AT NIGHT.
GIVEN EXPECTED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...HAVE OPTED TO MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN FORTHCOMING
ZONE FORECAST. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...FOR A CHANGE! IN THE LONGER
RANGE...GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FORMATION OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THEN
POSSIBLY AFFECTING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WITH WIND AND RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS...BUT INTERESTINGLY...HURREVAC
2000 SOFTWARE INDICATES THAT BETWEEN 1851 AND 2008...SIX TROPICAL
SYSTEMS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE
THAT EVENTUALLY AFFECTED DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...NAMELY...THE NOT NAMED
SYSTEMS OF 1902 AND 1960...ALICE (1954)...ALMA (1958)...CANDY (1968)
...AND ARLENE (1993).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[KWT]

Very interesting but not quite sure we should place so much trust in the GFS to forecast more then say 7 days ahead, at least to the point of mentioning it like that in a forecast discussion.
Still 6 storms in June in the past have affected Texas since the start of records which is pretty interesting I have to admit. I wonder what the figures are like for Florida?

How strong were those systems mentioned?

[srainhoutx]

Very interesting but not quite sure we should place so much trust in the GFS to forecast more then say 7 days ahead, at least to the point of mentioning it like that in a forecast discussion.
Still 6 storms in June in the past have affected Texas since the start of records which is pretty interesting I have to admit. I wonder what the figures are like for Florida?

How strong were those systems mentioned?

KWT, the storms mentioned were for S Texas only. Today is the 7th anniversary of TS Allison making landfall in SE Texas. The most costly TS in US History.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/projects/allison01.htm

http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/ ... index.html

KHGX AFD Update...

FXUS64 KHGX 051936
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
236 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 02Z). VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...WITH COVERAGE A
LOT LESS THAN WHAT WE HAD THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY IN COMBINATION WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER
RIDGING ALOFT AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP MAY ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
CLOSER TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND UP TOWARD THAT AREA. AS WE START NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO CENTER ITSELF OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS OUR AREA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES STARTING ON
MONDAY TO 30% CENTRAL AND COAST...AND HAVE KEPT 20% CHANCES UP NORTH.
WILL CARRY THESE POPS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK...BUT THESE NUMBERS ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE RAISED
IF SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE FORECASTED BY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. WE COULD USE THE RAIN...STAY
TUNED! AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE INDICATED A SLOW DECREASE IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ANTICIPATION OF THE SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

THIS AFTERNOON MARKS THE SEVEN YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE FORMATION AND
ONSLAUGHT OF TROPICAL STORM ALLISON. 42

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXAFDHGX