Hello island neighbors, and mainlanders! Speaking just about the wave, not assuming any low pressure center, it was introduced only yesterday, and only 10 degrees behind wave containing 91L, had been part of one big surge on the TPW.
click here. That then seemed to split (run loop on above), so was analyzed as separate wave. As to shear, yes upper level is as mentioned, but midlevel is not that bad. OK, it can't make a cat5 hurricane, lol, but can sustain convection. It's funny, the latest surface maps from TAFB don't show the first wave on 48 & 72 hr maps, it goes poof, and one remains.
Just not sure how well the models have handled this double-wave situation. Here's why I've very little confidence in the models, pertaining to our immediate area. Been watching them waffle back and forth the last 3 days, and eight years now of looking at them every morning, and then seeing what REALLY happens here. Right now GFS shows us (BVI) getting almost NO RAIN from this thing, and no wind, while NAM now on 4th issue of showing decent rain, latest is 1.8 inches from 2am to 8am Saturday, GFS shows none for Saturday, with some light rain tomorrow. Normally, they don't differ much.
And I'd love some rain, too. Puerto Rico has had plenty, but here May concluded with .06 in rain (at STT airport), 3.3 inches below average, since 1 March 1.72, average 7.27, 5.55 inches below norm. Cisterns are getting low.
Still think this wave contains plenty of energy and moisture, and bears watching for Hispaniola, Cuba, not a hurricane, but one of those TD's that can cause flooding. If it makes it to Florida, I know you Floridians will be rejoicing, you need the rain, too!
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html
