Small disturbance with a circulation just east of St Lucia

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N AND SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THAT AREA FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 55W-57W. A RECENT QSCAT PASS REVEALS A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT
ABOUT THE AXIS AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KT E OF THE
AXIS.
Interresting discussion, the tiny circulation is always tenacious, let's see what happens within the next 12H, we should a better idea of the potential of this wave

[KWT]

I think there is enough there to warrent an invest, nothing is going to come of it thanks to shear further west but it still looks ok right now, if shear was lower further west it'd have a chance.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE TPW FIELD
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED V-STRUCTURE. A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 12N/13N AND SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS MAINLY CONFINED TO ITS W SIDE SHEARED BY
UPPER ELY FLOW FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 56W-59W. EARLIER
SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT ABOUT THE AXIS
AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-25 KT E OF THE AXIS.

Getting better and better, but convection is not expanding....definitely interresting, waves are popping everywhere right now, and any guest becoming suspicious

[KWT]

Yep there are starting to be more and more suspect areas now we are heading into July. The fact that we have already had 2 invests from tropical waves in the Atlantic isn't bad going and the E.Atl one may well even become a very early system...warm up for later in the season???

Anyway this is still a very small compact wave right now so when it goes through the windward islands there should be only a limited region of showers and storms, though some of the cells ahead of the main wave are quite strong.

[Gustywind]

What are you saying, we have two invests???
Nrl is on invest 92L, and where is the other invest, is that the wave we're talking about right now...or my eyes are deceiving me KWT? Are you sure or i'm reading badly you reply???

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Sorry I meant Invest 91L and 92L, we've had 2 invests in the open Atlantic which isn't that common for the 2nd of July, normally when you have early invests they are in the W.Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

[Gustywind]

Sorry I meant Invest 91L and 92L, we've had 2 invests in the open Atlantic which isn't that common for the 2nd of July, normally when you have early invests they are in the W.Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

OK lol , absolutely , i have understood that after... no problem. Yeah this season has surprises in store for the moment, but usualy all tha action is focalised on the W caribbean ane Guf of Mexico as you well resumed it .
I tkink that the tiny system should get more convection to be an invest, but very close to Invest status.
It 's interresting to note that our pro mets from Guadeloupe, are anticipating a slight deterioration of the weather with numerous showers this afternoon. Whereas for Martinica's pro met the risk of showers and scattered thunderstorms is stronger than in Guadeloupe, maybe due to the latitude, all in all, for my part i'm monitoring this tiny system with only a weak percentage to see an invest churning near us..

[NDG]

Circulation is not as well defined as it was yesterday afternoon, it should completely die out after passing the islands.

[KWT]

Yep NDG, whether this becomes an invest or not is a mute point really because its going to sheared to hell in about 24hrs time and be gone anyway.

[lrak]

Will the shear destroy the LLC? One more if you guys don't mind, would strong shear totally wipe out a TS or Hurricane?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will the shear destroy the LLC? One more if you guys don't mind, would strong shear totally wipe out a TS or Hurricane?

Best of my knowledge, strong shear will kill even a TS or hurricane, however, strong hurricanes usually help build a decent anticyclone aloft over them, which somewhat protects them from shear. From what I've seen, strong hurricanes moving into what would be a shear zone experience some weakening because the strong winds directed toward the system, while not reaching the core and shearing the storms, reduces outflow.

I'd guess this weakening, even at a reduced rate, eventually reduces the effectiveness of the anticyclone aloft, due to weaker convection warming the upper levels less than stronger convection, and if the shear is persistent, it will eventually reach the core.



This is an uneducated 'best guess' from a guy with a degree not in meteorology, but in petroleum engineering.

[drezee]

obs from Barbados should be interesting

[NDG]

Yep NDG, whether this becomes an invest or not is a mute point really because its going to sheared to hell in about 24hrs time and be gone anyway.

Plus, there is also the persisten strong difluent & accelerating surface easterly winds across the Caribbean that will disrupt any kind of surface circulation left.

[lrak]

Thank you Ed Mahmoud! Very interesting about Hurricanes creating a defensive strategy for shear

[KWT]

Indeed NDG and so this is probably the peak of this wave in terms of its structure currently.

As for shear, I recall Derek once saying that it was shear that helped hurricane Charley bomb, shear can help if it helps to fan out the outflow, shear directly over the system will weakening it though.

[boca]

That disturbance doesn't have a chance due to the shear caused by that east coast trough.When that lifts out conditions will get better for development.

[Gustywind]

Nothing special at barbados pressure is high 1015 hpa, and no veering, but very moist air in vicinity...
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 09:00 AM EDTJul 02, 2008 - 08:00 AM CDTJul 02, 2008 - 07:00 AM MDTJul 02, 2008 - 06:00 AM PDTJul 02, 2008 - 05:00 AM ADTJul 02, 2008 - 04:00 AM HDT
2008.07.02 1300 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob TBPB 021300Z 08012KT 9999 SCT012CB BKN014 26/25 Q1015
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[Gustywind]

obs from Barbados should be interesting

Nothing special at barbados pressure is high 1015 hpa, and no veering, but very moist air in vicinity...
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 09:00 AM EDTJul 02, 2008 - 08:00 AM CDTJul 02, 2008 - 07:00 AM MDTJul 02, 2008 - 06:00 AM PDTJul 02, 2008 - 05:00 AM ADTJul 02, 2008 - 04:00 AM HDT
2008.07.02 1300 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob TBPB 021300Z 08012KT 9999 SCT012CB BKN014 26/25 Q1015
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg
Nothing special at barbados pressure is high 1015 hpa, and no veering, but very moist air in vicinity...
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Current Weather Conditions:
Grantley Adams, Barbados
(TBPB) 13-04N 059-29W 56M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Jul 02, 2008 - 09:00 AM EDTJul 02, 2008 - 08:00 AM CDTJul 02, 2008 - 07:00 AM MDTJul 02, 2008 - 06:00 AM PDTJul 02, 2008 - 05:00 AM ADTJul 02, 2008 - 04:00 AM HDT
2008.07.02 1300 UTC
Wind from the E (080 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 94%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob TBPB 021300Z 08012KT 9999 SCT012CB BKN014 26/25 Q1015
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[KWT]

That disturbance doesn't have a chance due to the shear caused by that east coast trough.When that lifts out conditions will get better for development.

Indeed shear will destroy this system, good job because if shear was low then this would have had a real chance in the Caribbean given how its been steadily developing.