Bertha's ACE=It reached 28

[HURAKAN]

I got this:

[cycloneye]

Here is what wikipedia has:

02L.Bertha

Adv. Date Time Maximum Sustained Winds (kt) ACE (104 kt2)

1 3 July 5 am EDT 30 0
2 3 July 11 am EDT 35 0.1225
3 3 July 5 pm EDT 35 0.1225
4 3 July 11 pm EDT 40 0.1600
5 4 July 5 am EDT 40 0.1600
6 4 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025
7 4 July 5 pm EDT 45 0.2025
8 4 July 11 pm EDT 45 0.2025
9 5 July 5 am EDT 45 0.2025
10 5 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025
11 5 July 5 pm EDT 45 0.2025
12 5 July 11 pm EDT 45 0.2025
13 6 July 5 am EDT 45 0.2025
14 6 July 11 am EDT 45 0.2025
15 6 July 5 pm EDT 50 0.2500
16 6 July 11 pm EDT 55 0.3025
17 7 July 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
18 7 July 11 am EDT 80 0.6400
19 7 July 5 pm EDT 100 1.0000
20 7 July 11 pm EDT 105 1.1025
21 8 July 5 am EDT 105 1.1025
22 8 July 11 am EDT 90 0.8100
23 8 July 5 pm EDT 75 0.5625
24 8 July 11 pm EDT 70 0.4900
25 9 July 5 am EDT 65 0.4225
26 9 July 11 am EDT 65 0.4225
27 9 July 5 pm EDT 90 0.8100
28 9 July 11 pm EDT 90 0.8100
29 10 July 5 am EDT 90 0.8100
30 10 July 11 am EDT 80 0.6400

Total 13.3525


There is one advisory absent from what Sandy posted as Bertha has 30 advisories and that one has 29.

[HURAKAN]

Luis, the first advisory was as a tropical depression, which doesn't count in the ACE. Wikipedia has it right in the "2008 Atlantic hurricane season" page.

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 13.0 Bertha 2 0.37 Arthur
Total: 13.4

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlan ... ane_Season

[cycloneye]

Luis, the first advisory was as a tropical depression, which doesn't count in the ACE. Wikipedia has it right in the "2008 Atlantic hurricane season" page.

Code: Select all

ACE (104kt²) (Source) — Storm:
1 13.0 Bertha 2 0.37 Arthur
Total: 13.4

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Atlan ... ane_Season

Bien todo resuelto

All is resolved.

[HURAKAN]

Bertha is just 5.045 ACE away from Félix's 18.03.

[OuterBanker]

Senorpepr, if you dropped last years two long tracking cat 5's into Mexico and the potential of Bertha around for another week. Isn't Bertha's ACE index potential higher than the entire 2007 season?

[KWT]

Bertha should beat Felix now though unles sit pulls a Ginger we should see Dean's ACE unreachable gfor Bertha I think, still no doubt we have had an active start and have a fair chance of getting above ACe based on this, indeed I'd now give a 60% of hyperactive season.

[HURAKAN]

Senorpepr, if you dropped last years two long tracking cat 5's into Mexico and the potential of Bertha around for another week. Isn't Bertha's ACE index potential higher than the entire 2007 season?

2007 ACE = 71.7 - 35.23 (DEAN) - 18.03 (FÉLIX) = 18.44. Bertha could very likely surpass 18.44

[HURAKAN]

[americanrebel]

With the potential of Bertha being out there for another 10 to 14 days, is it possible for her ACE to get close to 30, or do you guys think it will be just in the mid 20's?

If we get another storm that forms out there where Bertha formed and last 2 to 3 weeks like Bertha could we have a record ACE season? That is not including all the other storms that will form this year and reach Cat 5 level.

What is the record for ACE in a season anyway?

[Ad Novoxium]

2005 has the record for the highest ACE in a season (248) and 1950 in second (243). For individual storms, 1899's Hurricane San Ciriaco holds the record (73.6). However, Ioke had 82, the world record.

[KWT]

Yeah Bertha isn't even going to get close to those super high ACE systems, though it does look like coming above average for a July system.

As for the ACE record, its going to take probably 7-8 majors this season to have a shot at that, not impossible bu not likely either I have to admit.
Still with such a fast start chances are we could well have a hyperactive season, a top 10 season is even possible IMO.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Code: Select all

Storm   Type   ACE (104 kt2)
01L (Arthur)   Operational   0.3675
02L (Bertha)   Operational   15.8750
Total      16.2425


[KWT]

Looks like we are going to easily beat Felix and get into the 20's it seems, very impressive early season system, if we get an active CV from now on then it seems we have a good shot at going hyperactive this year.

[HURAKAN]

[Scorpion]

And the GFS and Euro wanna keep Bertha around for another week.. I wonder how much ACE we'll have then

[HURAKAN]

If Bertha averages => ( 55 knots )^2 / 10^4 = .3025 * 4 advisories * 7 days = 8.47 + 15.875 = 24.345 by 5 PM next Friday.

This is just a guess. It all depends on Bertha's intensity and future track. I see Bertha easily passing 20 ACE.

[Ad Novoxium]

Yeah Bertha isn't even going to get close to those super high ACE systems, though it does look like coming above average for a July system.

As for the ACE record, its going to take probably 7-8 majors this season to have a shot at that, not impossible bu not likely either I have to admit.
Still with such a fast start chances are we could well have a hyperactive season, a top 10 season is even possible IMO.

7-8 Majors isn't a requirement. In fact, the top 10 consists of 1998 (ACE of 182) and 1999 (177). 99 had five majors, but 12 storms (this names list gets this many each year, even breaking the rules to do it, 1984 Lili, anyone?). 1998 is higher, and it only had three majors (Bonnie, Georges, and Mitch). Granted the former two lasted long at that intensity. See:

1998 Atlantic hurricane season 182 14 10 3 Above normal (hyperactive)
1999 Atlantic hurricane season 177 12 8 5 Above normal (hyperactive)

[HURAKAN]