Well Defined Wave off African Coast

[cycloneye]

More pics:



Half system below but you can see how big is the overall circulation.

[blp]

Check out the IR

18:45 UTC


19:00 UTC

[Anthonyl]

Is is same to assume that modles are initializing this system a little to much to the north, the rotation seem to be further south in the bulk of the convection. Also the ridge looks pretty stong at 1031 mbs. Any thoughts.

[njweather]

Is it just me, or does this look like a tropical system right now?

I often wonder how amazing these storms must look from the ground as they cross over African savannas...

[blp]

Seems like the EURO and GFS are handling the ridge differently. The EURO is breaking it down around 50W while the GFS is around 75W. Can't see yet what The EURO might be picking up on. I does not seem like a shortwave trough from the west will break down the ridge that much. I do see in the WV below an ULL developing around 26N & 50W and what might be a weak trough attached to Bertha. I would assume that with the High building back in from the east that would be long gone before the systems reaches that area. I think you are right we need to initialize this first before we know anything.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

The models iniciate a bit north in latitud than where really is the system.That may be very important in terms of getting a weakness or not.

[bob rulz]

its actually looks like a MCV!!! when that hits the water ( if it hold together) we should see something ..

that would be crazy if it develops and 94l develops .. that would make 4 names systems in july, I dont think that has happened has it..

There were 5 named storms in July in 2005. I believe that is the record.

Either way, this system indeed looks very impressive, but let's just wait until it gets over water to see what it does. Even the best-looking waves have a tendency to just dissolve as soon as they exit the coast.

[blp]

Yea I noticed that they seem to start off a bit North, but then they move it SW a little I guess in response to the building High. However, the EURO does not move it SW and moves it straight West at the higher latitude before recurve.

[KWT]

Wow this look seriously good right now, indeed this may be an invest just 12-24hrs after exiting the coast, I also agree it looks even better then Bertha did at this stage, a pretty impressive feat!

[funster]

Wow. This July has been amazing to watch already.

[Gustywind]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200807

Elsewhere in the tropics
Three of our four reliable computer models for are predicting a new tropical depression will develop off the coast of Africa 5-7 days from now. The level of tropical activity the past week has been quite remarkable, and is more typical of September than July. It's a very good thing that sea surface temperatures are more than 1°C cooler than during the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005. As it is, the nature of this unusually high early season activity likely means we are in for a busier than average main portion of hurricane season, August-October.

I'll have a full update Sunday morning, and perhaps a short update later today if we get a new named storm.

Jeff Masters
.....

[KWT]

The good thing is with this system expected to come off as far north as it will chances are pretty high that it will recurve at some point, still looks very good rightr now probably our next invest IMO.

[cycloneye]

Pic at 21:00z or 5 PM EDT:

[KWT]

Wow thats looking pretty stunning right now cycloneye, wouldn't be surprise dif we have a TC again near 25W just like Bertha!

[HURAKAN]

[Extremeweatherguy]

The good thing is with this system expected to come off as far north as it will chances are pretty high that it will recurve at some point, still looks very good rightr now probably our next invest IMO.

Yes, more often than not, a storm coming off Africa near the latitude of the Cape Verde islands will recurve. However, it should be noted that there have been many notable exceptions to this in years past...

1928 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1928 ... _track.png
1938 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1938 ... _track.png
1947 Hurricane - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1947 ... _track.png
Hurricane Hugo - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hugo_1989_track.png
Hurricane Fran - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Fran_1996_track.png

For now, all we can really do with the current system is watch it and see how things evolve.

[njweather]

SAL is looking weaker than it was 24 hours ago. Possibly a trend?

24 hours ago:



Latest:

[Extremeweatherguy]

Cycloneye and Hurakan, thanks for the images! This system certainly is impressive-looking tonight.

[RattleMan]

http://i21.photobucket.com/albums/b300/HURAKAN5/97L.jpg

Getting ahead of the curve are we?

[KWT]

Still those system really are the exception to the rule Extremeweatherguy. also yep SAL is decreasing as a weak wave comes offshore and helps to take the blow for the bigger wave behind.