Possible Development in C Atlantic Wave (Is invest 92L)

[Blown Away]

8 PM Discussion:

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N25W 13N34W 9N45W 9N62W.
A LOW/MID CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR
11N22W WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 100 NM SW QUADRANT. WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA BEFORE
PLACING A LOW ON THE SURFACE MAP.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... scussions/

This one has potential!!

[HURAKAN]

06/2345 UTC 11.5N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

Invest soon, stay tuned!

[wxmann_91]

dry air ok

[Blown Away]

06/2345 UTC 11.5N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

Invest soon, stay tuned!

Yeah baby!! An invest we can track across the pond. I like the 2008 season so far, it's not leaving much lull time for us obsessive hurricane trackers.

[HURAKAN]

Possible MLC visible in the loops and convection should increase by tomorrow morning. Something to keep an eye on!

[MGC]

Poof the magic dragon lives near the CV islands. Since Bertha formed all the disturbances coming off Africa, despite looking like they would spin have poofed. With the recent demise of convection, looks like this one is on the poof train.....MGC

[RL3AO]

Worth watching over the next few days. It might develop. It might not. I think Bertha skewed a lot of peoples expectations of tropical waves. However, it is August now and anything can happen.

[Mecklenburg]

Possible MLC visible in the loops and convection should increase by tomorrow morning. Something to keep an eye on!

looks like it has a good chance... if it can withstand the SAL...

[Nimbus]

Its pretty far south so if it does not have an encounter with a mid atlantic TUTT it looks like this might be trouble. Plenty of moisture.

[HURAKAN]

Since Bertha most good disturbances, 97L and 98L, have left Africa at a very high latitude, making the possibility for development very low. This one is pretty far south and althought environmental conditions are not entirely favorable, it's too early to say poof.

[Mecklenburg]

does it have an LLC?

[HURAKAN]

does it have an LLC?

Not likely. The NHC not even indicates a wave at the moment.

[RL3AO]

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N25W 13N34W 9N45W 9N62W.
A LOW/MID CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR
11N22W WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 100 NM SW QUADRANT. WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA BEFORE
PLACING A LOW ON THE SURFACE MAP. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE NEAR 9N29W...9N32W AND 9N41W.

[Mecklenburg]

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 11N25W 13N34W 9N45W 9N62W.
A LOW/MID CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR
11N22W WITH A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 100 NM SW QUADRANT. WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA BEFORE
PLACING A LOW ON THE SURFACE MAP. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE NEAR 9N29W...9N32W AND 9N41W.

oh.... i give it a 40% chance of becoming an invest...

[HURAKAN]

[Ivanhater]

I dont know why, but I like the chances of this one...although I dont think it will start to spin up till just east of the Islands...

[haml8]

IF this develops... IF ... then what are the chances of it recurving out to sea or shooting into the Caribbean??

[RL3AO]

IF this develops... IF ... then what are the chances of it recurving out to sea or shooting into the Caribbean??

The old adage looks true here. If it develops quickly, it will be steered more by the middle and upper levels which would induce a move northerly movement. If it can stay weak (open wave/td), it would move more west.

Right now the weakness is near 40 to 50W.

[Mecklenburg]

IF this develops... IF ... then what are the chances of it recurving out to sea or shooting into the Caribbean??

you are so right... this is a big IF

[cycloneye]

Convection has persisted all of Wednesday,lets see if it continues to do so on thursday.