Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS no longer has a cyclone through 7 days. CMC is very weak

PHANTOMCANE

Looks like we may enjoy another week to 2 of quiet activity, before things get really active

I guess it depends on your definition of 'weak'. Not that I trust the Canadian, or doubt a quiet week ahead.




That is beyond 144 hours, ie, next Friday.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, the next couple of weeks should be really quiet, that will bring us to the end of August, and I think something should at least get started by that time, so we'll have some activity in September to talk about, and I think September and perhaps early October should be pretty active before it starts to quiet down again.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yep, the next couple of weeks should be really quiet, that will bring us to the end of August, and I think something should at least get started by that time, so we'll have some activity in September to talk about, and I think September and perhaps early October should be pretty active before it starts to quiet down again.

The next week, anyway.

I think Joe Bastardi gets details wrong, but he usually kind of gets the big picture, and about 2 days or so ago he predicted next upward motion pulse associated with MJO would start showing up closer to home in the Pacific, and besides CPac Kika and EPac Hernan, we have a plethora of invests. Now, quite a few pro-mets think the upward motion pulse really doesn't get beyond the Gulf and Caribbean, but Bastardi seems to think it gets into the MDR. He seems to be suggesting we are about 10 days away, or so, from a 10 to 20 day "track race", with several tropical cyclones, and he is of the opinion at least one, probably more, will threaten Florida, the Carolinas and points North.


Like I said, he has been a little off on the fine tuning, but he was calling for Edouard before it had much model support (BTW, aside, anyone notice the earliest, and basically closest, model on Edouard seems to have been the much maligned NAM, with the equally maligned Canadian global not far behind?), he predicted the little surge in early July that produced Bertha and Critobal, well, so far, he has been in the ballpark.

[KWT]

CZ, well will be interesting to see whether the MJO helps to pick things up, by that time SAL should possibly be easing down.

As for this wave, I don't think its going to do anything but further west I do think its going to have to be closely watchedd IMO.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET is on board:

Code: Select all

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.3N  15.9W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 10.08.2008  11.3N  15.9W     WEAK

 00UTC 11.08.2008  12.0N  19.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.08.2008  11.7N  22.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 12.08.2008  11.3N  27.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.08.2008  10.9N  29.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.08.2008  15.3N  30.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.08.2008  14.8N  33.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.08.2008  14.1N  35.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.08.2008  14.7N  36.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

[Scorpion]

12Z GFS develops the wave but keeps it pretty weak. Hits Florida though at the end of the run.

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS develops the wave but keeps it pretty weak. Hits Florida though at the end of the run.

Could you post the link for that run.

[Scorpion]

12Z GFS develops the wave but keeps it pretty weak. Hits Florida though at the end of the run.

Could you post the link for that run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_372m.gif

[Blown Away]

That's rate over us Scorpion, a few things stick out:
1. Look at the strong BH.
2. Per Jeff Master's, this would be the time he thinks the EC trough would begin to weaken.
3. Landfall on August 24th. I had to do it.

[Meso]

12z CMC

[cycloneye]

[Vortex]

Folks,

It appears next week will feature a long tracker...One that will form near the cape verde islands and has the potential to come very far west...More later but continued support from the globals suggest this may be reality within the next 3-4 days.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET at 144 Hours:

[cycloneye]

Guess what,the EURO is on board too,although in a weak status.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8080812!!/

[Scorpion]

Yea, the Euro was stronger last run I believe.

[cycloneye]

Also the EURO despicts a good solid ridge,meaning a more westward track for any system that may form in the comming week.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

[cycloneye]

NOGAPS didnt want to stay as the loner for no development,so now it joins the combo of models developing the wave.

[Scorpion]

Wow, pretty impressive. NOGAPS and UKMET are both usually very conservative in developing waves.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just read the thread and link on Dr. Master's theory on the breakdown of the protective East Coast ridge, and posted there.

So this is a double post, but I think it is worthwhile...


12Z Euro seesm to suggest the rather persistent East Coast trough will start to shift a week from tomorrow, and by ten days, the East Coast will have ridging, with a mean trough closer to 90ºW, which shows very little movement on day 9 and day 10.


If, and of course, its a big if, anything were out there, Florida and the Eastern/Central Gulf could be at risk.




Edit to add: Cycloneye seems to have noted the Euro first, but I'll leave mine up, because it has an image.

[Tampa_God]

Well, if this pulls to becoming something and the ridge sets up like above, than thats gonna suck. Me and my paps are heading to Europe this Sunday and I know if anything starts even making a hint of entering the GOM, my mother will be flipping out. And funny thing is, 2008 has been a active year and I'm heading to Europe and I went to Europe in 2005 and look what happened. Maybe I should never travel to Europe ever again.