Very unofficial- Texas season over?

[southerngale]

Just in- "Texas Season Unofficially Over?" prediction may have been a smidge premature.

Ya think?

I told you it was ridiculous to post that on August 16th. I didn't expect THIS though! With that said, may you and yours be safe. I'm really worried about all of us in SE TX.

[Brent]

Epically historic FAIL!

[tolakram]

Hasn't made landfall yet .....

[KWT]

Man what a bust this thread has turned out to be, historic hurricane into Texas...

Good luck with this one Ed hopefully you'll be fine!

[RL3AO]

Poor Ed.

[KWT]

Its almost like Ike read this thread and thought "how dare you, I'm going to bust climatology and give you a personal slap"

Once again best of luck to everyone in Ike's way!

[Category 5]

Kids, this thread is a perfect example on why you shouldn't drink and post.

[Jason_B]

Stay safe Ed, consider having to deal with Ike your crow.

[HURAKAN]

Ed stay safe. Ike replaces the crow!!!

[Steve]

See Ed, it's like this - you're above having to prove yourself or make blanket predictions for which you have no control over. Obviously you could have hung your hat and gained some credibility (which you didn't need btw) by being right. But someone forgot to tell Mother Nature. So unless as Ike wobbles those last few miles toward the Texas Coast and he either stalls, dies, or completely changes direction - none of which are likely to happen - you have been self-owned.

[KWT]

Well Ike has made landfall...in Texas, looks like its giving Houston a big hit as well....

[Frank2]

Some here seem to take pleasure in being able to prove those of us wrong who are hoping for a quiet season, but, there is nothing wrong in being hopeful...

Damage assessment is still underway this morning, but, initially, based on the 7-foot storm surge reported on Galveston Island (the one place that was expected to experience some of the highest storm surge, and, as some stated here, was expected to be washed away), it seems the surge was not the 22-foot-plus surge that was being predicted by so many here and elsewhere over the past few days, so, again, many hoped and prayed that it would not be that high, and, being hopeful is a good thing in life, since hope equals faith in the One greater than ourselves...

Of course, if people were warned to leave then they should obey the order to leave, but, they can still be hopeful for a good outcome to what they left behind...

I'm sure we all hope that Ed is well, and, that he will be able to post here again very soon...

Frank

[bvigal]

I certainly hope Ed, and our other great S2K Texans/SW Louisians, are doing OK and escape any serious damage! The worst surge was east of Galveston, in NE quadrant of Ike. So while it's undoubtedly a mess in Galveston, it could have been so much worse!

The silliest story I saw last night was the familiy in Freeport, right on the Brazoria river, who didn't evacuate because their "vehicle wasn't reliable". But not to worry, the woman said, she had obtained some light-duty life vests, and besides, she added, "I don't really think the water is going to come up"!

The one that really got me was US Coast Guard helo plucking a family out of the water. The family lived ON THE BEACH Brazoria penin, and went to bed Thursday night, thinking they could drive away Friday morning... and awoke to find themselves in storm surge. (What did they drink before bedtime?) I mean, <exasperated sigh>, i.e. the storm is 150 miles away and 12-ft seas extend 400 miles NW quadrant... you live on the beach, what does that tell you?

But Ed, when you get back to read this, I have a favor to ask... please don't make any season predictions for where I live, OK?

[Jason_B]

Going to be interesting to see if there are any changes along the Gulf coast after Ike gets sucked inland. Usually when there's a big hurricane that makes landfall in September along the Gulf the atmosphere really changes afterwords. Look for a more autumn pattern to establish itself from Texas to Pensacola in the next couple of weeks.

[Steve]

nothing at all wrong with being hopeful Frank. I think
many dispute your Baghdad bob styled analyses but most like you as a person. IMHO there was a better way to do this thread that probably wouldn't have generated any heat. Fwiw I could think of at least 2 or 3 things I would rather be doing today besides sitting in a house with no power wondering how high the bayou will actually back into my neighborhood.

[Category 5]

Some here seem to take pleasure in being able to prove those of us wrong who are hoping for a quiet season, but, there is nothing wrong in being hopeful...

If you make ridiculous predictions, no matter what for, expect to hear about it when you're wrong.

[vbhoutex]

Hey Ed!!! When you can read this, I have some crow we are going to barbecue while we are without power!!! I'm saving the biggest one for you!!!! LOL!!! Hope you are ok with no damage.

[DanKellFla]

Ed, there is a check in thread that CajunMama set up in Recovery..... When you have a minute, please give us a status. I hope the you and yours are OK. Stay safe.

[Frank2]

If you make ridiculous predictions, no matter what for, expect to hear about it when you're wrong.

Category 5,

On Friday a few of us were saying that the surge might not be as high as many were fearing, so, I'd have to disagree with you...

I don't take the credit for thinking that it might be less, but, in my heart that's the feeling I kept getting, since the storm was moving fairly slowly at a consistent rate, and, was just not as strong as Katrina or Rita, since Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane just 6 hours before landfall...

But, a number here jumped all over us on Friday afternoon, saying we were, as you said, ridiculous for saying this, but, per TWC this morning, the highest any gauge measured was 12.75 feet - much less than many here who were saying it'd be as high as 22, 25 or even as high as 30 feet...

I'll have to ask my old co-worker, Brian Jarvinen, who worked on the SLOSH model, what his opinion is when it came to the surge forecast errors, and, I'll let all know here, but, one reason I mentioned that on Friday was my recollection of him saying that surge is very dependent on forward speed and intensity (central pressure), and, not just the angle of the storm's approach to the coast, and, the geography of the coast itself - since both forward speed and intensity were reduced in Ike's case, it makes sense that the surge would be less, which is just as well considering the amount of damage even in it's reduced state...

Also it's important to note that the highest winds over a large portion of Ike's Gulf passage were found not to be at the surface but aloft, and, no doubt that also helped to lessen the chance of a massive surge - as the below article mentions, surge is still very hard to accurately predict:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/1 ... index.html

though you can bet the prayers of millions did help, since many were very worried that the damage would be even worse that it is today...

Just because someone has a different opinion doesn't make their opinion ridiculous - only different, my friend...

Frank

[Steve]

Hey Ed. I see you are back around and just wanted to welcome you back with a little BTTT to see if you've learned anything from this here prediction.

Steve