Area East of 94L Looking Interesting=(Is invest 95L)

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow, it has a huge circulation. No wonder the Euro wants to make it the largest hurricane ever.

It wants to make it the largest, sloppiest tropical-storm ever, because it runs right over DR and Cuba just like Fay.

Holy crap on that one...

[Wx_Warrior]

wonder y gfs hasnt jumped on board?

[Brent]

2nd run in a row! Looks even more intense this time, this is not a tropical storm, lol

[KWT]

Very impressive ECM but what is it 94L or the ITCZ system behind it, because this run has it at Leeward islands at 72hrs, big ole system on the ECM it has to be said!

[RL3AO]

Very impressive ECM but what is it 94L or the ITCZ system behind it, because this run has it at Leeward islands at 72hrs, big ole system on the ECM it has to be said!

Its 94L. The area behind it would have to move 43kts to get there in 72 hours.

[KWT]

Yeah fair enough I thought so. Still this is a big system even if the ITCZ is enhancing it is looks like its got a chunky circulation thats well formed so this is looking odds on to get 95l sometime pretty soon IMO and I do think this one will also develop.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm amazed there is no invest on it. I guess because it's in the ITCZ. Will it crash into South America? Or will it head more wnw?

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 210602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 29W/30W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N WAS ADDED TO THE 0000Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A QSCAT
PASS THAT SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AS WELL AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 11N. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME DRY AIR...THUS NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY/CONVECTION.

[KWT]

Well the GFS has it on one of its crazy tracks, averages NW in the first 48hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

Though it starts this system too far north it seems.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
AXNT20 KNHC 211151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 19N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 12N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOME RATHER DRY AIR BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N
BETWEEN 29W-31W.

[cycloneye]

Another interesting discussion from the San Juan NWS about whart is going on in the Tropical Atlantic:

MOISTURE FIELD PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD NV...OR BAROCLINIC
LOW...PASSING W ACROSS THE CARIB S OF MONA PASSAGE ATTM...WITH
MIXED SAL EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE AREA TODAY IN ITS WAKE...AND
AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS
THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS VERY INTERESTING TODAY...WITH WELL
ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH HAVING BROKEN FREE OF AFRICAN MONSOON
GYRE...THANKS TO A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW HAVING MOVED ACROSS THE
CAPE VERDES PAST 24-36 HOURS...AND STRONG WLYS SOUTH OF TROUGH NOW
FLOWING SW TO NE AND INTO E SIDE OF THIS BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW.
A CLUSTER OF DEEP CNVTN AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN BE SEEN
ALONG ABOUT 9N 35W THIS MORNING ON S SIDE OF THIS EVOLVING
FEATURE. WLYS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH NOW EXTEND FROM THE MID 50S
TO THIS LARGE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING 30W THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES LOOKS TO BE ALONG 53/54W ATTM
AND GAINING POSITIVE TILT WITH TIME...AS MID LEVEL JET REMAINS
ALONG 18-20N. THIS ALIGNMENT CONTINUES TO BLEED VORTICITY AND
MOISTURE TO THE AMBIENT FLOW...WITH LEADING EDGE OF RELATED
MOISTURE JUST ABOUT TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH 60W ATTM. GFS NOT FORECASTING THIS
AREA OF WEATHER TO REACH THE USVI UNTIL 06-12Z FRIDAY...BUT SOME
LEADING MOISTURE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 30-60
DAYS...STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO GUIDE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS APPROACHING WAVE TO THE WNW AND
NW...AND LIFT N OF PUERTO RICO...JUST BRUSHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC TURNING SEEN IN IR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT CENTERED
ALONG 12N 52W DOES NOT APPEAR WELL INITIALIZED BY GFS...AND THIS
MAY PASS JUST SOUTH OF PR FRI NIGHT-SAT TO IMPACT THE ISLAND MUCH
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED. AGAIN...THIS COMPLEX
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ATLC PROVING CHALLENGING FOR THE
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND SHOULD BE INTERESTING.
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MID SUMMER DROUGHT HAS ENDED AND
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING TROPICAL WAVES WILL
AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEKS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[KWT]

Looking a little less impressive now that Dmax is past, still firing up convection well but clearly all involved in the ITCZ.

[Derek Ortt]

I wouldn't touch a genesis forecast from the ECMWF

it seems to spin things up far more intense than does the Canadian

[KWT]

Hardly Derek in fact I've noticed it doesn't wind most systems up enough in the early phases of development, it may overdo it a touch when its formed a system depending on certain set-ups. Its far more likely to be too low than too high though.

[KWT]

Convection flaring this time a touch further north, I do not know why on earth this isn't an invest right now!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[BigA]

Convection flaring this time a touch further north, I do not know why on earth this isn't an invest right now!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

My best guess would be that those in charge of invest designation (is it the NHC?, NRL?) thinks that it is associated with the ITCZ still. In any case, its convective persistance has got 94L beat.

[abajan]

Convection flaring this time a touch further north, I do not know why on earth this isn't an invest right now!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Invest or not, it certainly is a tropical disturbance. If memory serves me correctly, any area of thunderstorms in the tropics that maintain an identity for at least 24 hours is classified as a tropical disturbance. This has been around for much longer and I expect it to become an invest at anytime.

[AtlanticWind]

Convection flaring this time a touch further north, I do not know why on earth this isn't an invest right now!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

Invest or not, it certainly is a tropical disturbance. If memory serves me correctly, any area of thunderstorms in the tropics that maintain an identity for at least 24 hours is classified as a tropical disturbance. This has been around for much longer and I expect it to become an invest at anytime.

It is now an Invest 95L

[cycloneye]

The thread is locked as invest 95L is up for this system.Go to Active Storms Forum for all the information about the new invest.