Well then a 'real' education has been had by anyone who got in the way of ike's surge...therefore we should expect 100% compliance with evacuation orders with the next storm from galveston to the LA border.
Unless we are saying not enough areas were ordered evacuated or that the potential surge height was not forecast...and i have not heard anyone make that claim... if local officials tell me my area....by way of zip code or zone on established maps found in every phonebook...is in a surge zone, it's really not that confusing. No calculations of wave crests or elevation estimates are needed....officials did the work for us. If they say leave, leave. If you see the bulk of your neighbors leaving....ask why they are...and then leave. Best case, you go home a day or 2 later. Worst case, no home is left but you get to keep your life. Win Win.
Those who second guess what officials are telling them to do...or those who didn't know of the surge risk with a storm like ike...are not going to be any more swayed by a new system of storm surge risk that has never been tested in an actual storm. All it will do is reinforce the belief by those who would have evacuated anyways that they should go.
Evacuation orders were made for areas that were beyond what a typical cat 2 would have required even with ike. If there is no faith in what officials are telling us....or we inject our erroneous beliefs about storms, positive thinking, and past experience.....then i guess i can see how there could be confusion and the need to bring out the map and try and guess elevation, wave impact, etc. Otherwise, when they tell you to go, go. Just go.
VeniceInlet wrote:If you ask someone what happens if they are 10' above sea level and the forecast calls for up to 20' surge...even a child with basic math skills could figure that outcome out.
I disagree. What if they are at 10 feet and advised about a 8 foot surge but they forget about accounting for waves? What if they are 2 miles inland at 10' and not sure if a 20 foot surge will go inland that far? That's what I'm talking about. Of course three blocks from the water is obvious but a mile? Two miles? Three miles? The example I gave was a guy 14 feet above sea level a mile or so inland on an island who thinks he is safe regardless of what hits here. This guy isn't a gambler, nor is he stupid. He IS, however, ignorant, which by definition, means uneducated about a topic. It's not an insult unless you put "willfully" in front of the word.
Speaking as someone with experience as well, I see MANY educated people who are confused about surge potentials, even the way they were communicated with Ike. It's not the gamblers or the stubborn we're talking about here, we're talking about people who need real data in order to make a real decision that could affect their lives. I think a better way of communicating storm intensity would be helpful, not just height but
including how far it is expected go inland. As I said earlier, even if it improves just a fraction of the public's decisionmaking or saves even one more life per storm that otherwise would have been lost, it's worth it.
