Tropical Wave at 54w

[Gustywind]

AXNT20 KNHC 281119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W TO A 16N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO TRINIDAD. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N
BETWEEN 42W AND 65W.

[Sanibel]

Weakening naked swirl in sheared area. CV could be done for 2008.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS NOTED. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 53W-55W.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 290524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR 10
KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER THE
WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Here's is the Olympics shear Games huge winds are blowing on this twave, no doubts it will be for sure a difficult trip with these hurddles of...shear !

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST NEAR 10
KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER THE
WAVE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
Hummm.....

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 290935
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST MON SEP 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN TO PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE WEATHER
SYSTEMS FORECAST. MAIN HAZARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE MODERATE
LONG PERIOD NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS CREATED BY THE NEWLY NAMED
SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE
MARINE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUB TROPICAL STORM LAURA SOME 1700 MILES
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...WHILE A TUTT SPINS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ENTIRE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CONVECTION
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO DIURNAL FORCING OVER WESTERN PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND TYPICAL LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN PR...THE VI AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND PROVIDE A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE
TO OUR LOCAL AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TUTT NEAR THE WINDWARDS WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK...AND MAY PROVIDE DYNAMICS
TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PR FOR
THURSDAY...BUT DOESN'T APPEAR TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PROFILE.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS TJSJ...TIST
AND TISX EARLY IN THE MORNING...BUT THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF PR WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 17-23Z.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS GENERATED BY THE RECENTLY NAMED
SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA...1700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...BEGAN
REACHING THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY. BUOY 41403...LOCATED ABOUT 200
MILES NORTH OF ST THOMAS...IS SHOWING 10 SECOND SWELL AT AROUND 6
FEET AS OF 5 AM AST. WAVE WATCH III MODEL DATA SUGGEST THESE
SWELLS WILL PEAK AT NEARLY 7 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND SLOWLY
RECEDE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SECOND AND STRONGER PULSE
OF 14 SECOND...6 OR 7 FOOT SWELL WILL BE FOLLOWING AND SHOULD
REACH THE NORTH COASTS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COASTS OF ALL
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT...AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE
EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 10 TO 14 FOOT...OR LOCALLY
HIGHER...BREAKING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FIRST PULSE...AND A
FEW FEET HIGHER WITH THE SECOND PULSE. THIS WILL CREATE HIGH RIP
CURRENT DANGER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG NORTH COAST BEACHES.
PLEASE SEE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 90 77 / 30 20 40 40
STT 87 78 87 78 / 30 40 50 50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-VIEQUES.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ST CROIX-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

&&

$$

71/93/
Gustywind

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 290937
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST MON SEP 29 2008

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. AT 5 AM THIS MORNING...THE TEMPERATURE IN SAINT CROIX
WAS 76 DEGREES...AND IN SAINT THOMAS IT WAS 79 DEGREES. THE WIND WAS
MAINLY EAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
STILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

MARINERS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 10 TO 17 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO
8 FEET ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR SHORE WATERS.

$$
Have a good day all, the weather is very nice and beautiful, and good morning to all my met friends from the Carib and Guadeloupe...HUC, Ouragan, Cycloneye, Msbee, Bvigal and the others in vicinity i do not forget you .

[bvigal]

Have a good day all, the weather is very nice and beautiful, and good morning to all my met friends from the Carib and Guadeloupe...HUC, Ouragan, Cycloneye, Msbee, Bvigal and the others in vicinity i do not forget you .

Thanks Gusty, good morning to you! Weather is wonderful here, love the dryer air while it lasts. Have a great day, everyone!!

[Gustywind]

Have a good day all, the weather is very nice and beautiful, and good morning to all my met friends from the Carib and Guadeloupe...HUC, Ouragan, Cycloneye, Msbee, Bvigal and the others in vicinity i do not forget you .

Thanks Gusty, good morning to you! Weather is wonderful here, love the dryer air while it lasts. Have a great day, everyone!!

re tkanks Bvigal always a pleasure to appreciate you're lovely smile putting some brigtness on all of the us in the Carib !!!!

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
000
AXNT20 KNHC 291756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SWLY FLOW OVER THE
WAVE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS PREVENTING ANY SHOWERS OR DEEP
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
all the ingredients to kill a wave, and so to bring nice weather conditions in the carib islands , let's enjoy it as we're ALWAYS in the peak of the season with an apparent calm....

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 300547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CURVATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC TPW
ANIMATION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND THUS DRY STABLE AIR. RESULTS IS NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 300943
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...VERY PATCHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
SHALLOW MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS
TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO
PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LITTLE
EFFECT EXPECTED ON THE LOCAL WEATHER...WITH LOCAL EFFECTS EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE
NORTHEASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA. WHILE
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ALLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE CURRENT HIGH SURF ADVISORY AT 8 AM
THIS MORNING...EXPECT A SECOND AND LARGER BATCH OF SWELL TO REACH
THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATER THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING BREAKING
WAVES OF 10 TO 14 FEET ALONG THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN EXPOSED
COASTLINES...SHOALS AND REEFS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...A GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL TAF SITES ALONG WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS TJMZ AND
TJBQ...WHERE A PASSING TSRA OR SHRA BETWEEN 17-23Z MAY BRING BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS TO THESE TWO TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 30 20 30 20
STT 87 78 87 78 / 50 40 40 40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR CULEBRA-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN
JUAN AND VICINITY-VIEQUES.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-VIEQUES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710-720-730.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM AST THIS MORNING FOR ST CROIX-ST.
THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM AST THURSDAY
FOR ST CROIX-ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AMZ710-720-730.

&&

$$

93/04/

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 300911
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2008

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS
WERE FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 5 MPH AND THE COASTAL TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE MID 70S.

A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN MAINTAINS A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL ENJOY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY.

FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM SUB
TROPICAL STORM LAURA WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...WHILE SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. ADDITIONALLY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NORTHERN COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
8 AM THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
POSITION IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AS THE AREA IS UNDER DENSE HIGH
CLOUDS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

[catastrophic]

the new wave behind it has been doing good at about 40W 8N to but there is an ull nw of it but the ull is weak

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html