Area of disturbed wx in the EGOM

[Lowpressure]

Focus on the north coast of the Yucatan as the day goes by. There is a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula now that is progged to drift north. The GFS has consistently been developing the lowest pressure off the north coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Ageed, this most likely will not form where the cluster of Thunderstorms are currently. The northern coast of Yucatan is where it will occur. Good ob.

[Sanibel]

There's a couple of vortexes down there. One is near 19.2-90.3 There's another on the node of a weak wave axis to its SW and another in the convection east of Yucatan.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Seems to me that the vortex over the water east of
the Yucatan- where the heaviest convection is...should take
over.

Also, outer bands of this low pressure area are reaching Southwest
Florida, with embedded vortex:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 11&loop=no
The winds move in Different Directions north and south of the center, as indicated by red
and green. This is probably just a squall, but it is interesting to see. CLICK on storm relative
winds in the left column.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Center Forming in the clear area in the North Yucatan Channel?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Low Centered Just off the NE Yucatan
Tip in the Southern Gulf of Mexico?
Well defined north to south elongation of the system.

[Sanibel]

You can see a healthy surface Low spiralling out there on the west coast of Yucatan. It should form if it moves north and away from land.

[Sanibel]

Surface spiral still centered near west Yucatan/Mexico.

Trying to get established. Mild convection out into Gulf.

[ronjon]

1010 mb low pressure developing near 23N-89W. Convection on the increase over the south-central GOM. Shear still looks strong especially over the northeastern GOM. Upper air conditions only look marginal for development although some sort of lop-sided hybrid system might get going today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Yucatan disturbance
Thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system over the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent Western Caribbean waters have diminished today, and tropical storm formation is not likely in this region through Tuesday. A moist flow of tropical air will continue along a trough of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula over South Florida for the next two days, bringing rainfall amounts of up to two inches over much of South Florida. Late this week, the NOGAPS, UKMET, and ECMWF models predict a tropical depression may form over the Western Caribbean.

Link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809

[HURAKAN]

254
AGXX40 KNHC 291705
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA TO
A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 23N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE N OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS SLOWER
AND FURTHER TO THE S MOVING THE LOW THEN PREVIOUS RUNS.
QUICKSCAT FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED 20 KT WINDS N OF
THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA LATE TUE. WEAK
HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THU THROUGH SAT.

WEAK ATLC TROUGH FROM 29N78W TO 27N80W WILL REMAIN STATIONARY.
OTHERWISE RIDGE ALONG 25N. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S.
COAST WED NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO S FLORIDA THU THEN
WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY FRI AND SAT. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU THEN DECREASE
FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. EXPECT LIGHT NLY WINDS W OF
THE FRONT.

LIGHTER THEN NORMAL TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AS THE
ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WEAK. THE TRADE SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UNUSUAL EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED AND EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
CUBA TO BELIZE THU THEN BECOME STATIONARY.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER DGS. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

[HURAKAN]

12z: LPS moving NE.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN THE S/CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 23N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL TO THE LOW CENTER SW TO NEAR
CAMPECHE MEXICO. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE SE GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 90W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NE...TRACKING ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY. E
TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OBSERVED IN THE SE GULF AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW
PRESSURE AREA AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GULF AND NE
MEXICO IS PRODUCING NLY WINDS 15-20 KT OVER THE SW GULF AND THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. NE WINDS OF 10-15 KT COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF N OF 28N. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING OVER
THE WRN ATLC WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 93W. UPPER-LEVEL SWLY WINDS
EAST OF THIS TROUGH ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE GULF TO AID IN SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

[captain east]

I don't expect anything really from this IMO, all I see is more rain, though I don't know how we'll handle much more since we got about 2 in. yesterday and 1 in. today so far and just getting rain nearly everyday...

[caneman]

pressure still falling.

http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_p ... tion=42055

Keep an eye on this buoy.

[Sanibel]

The N wind direction on that buoy is the inflow I've been seeing. Something brewing overhead here. Convection doesn't linger this long here at this time of year without something to it.

[jinftl]

Code Yellow for this system as of 8pm TWO...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO....

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[HURAKAN]

Oh, sunshine, where are you?!?!?

[TYNI]

Code Yellow for this system as of 8pm TWO...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO....

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED HERE OR ELSEWHERE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

That's a rather large code yellow area!

[JonathanBelles]

I'm in a code yellow! lol

If it was anything like today, Code Yellow=Sunshine.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some really heavy rain around 12 AM this morning.