Area of Disturbed Weather in Western Caribbean

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The "storm" arising from this NW Caribbean disturbance has already formed, but you're looking in the wrong area. It's just where the Canadian model was developing and moving it - right into the Florida Panhandle. Winds just east of the cold front are 30-35 kts offshore. There's nothing in the NW Caribbean now, just rising pressure and decreasing storms.

So this is what all the models were forecasting - not much of a TC:

Those 35 knot winds now approaching the Florida West Coast. The wind has been increasing
since this morning gusts to 30 mph. As that squall line approaches, the eyewall of the extratropical
cyclone, the stronger cells could produce 40-60 mph winds; sun is peeking out = severe
weather and instability.

[wxman57]

Those 35 knot winds now approaching the Florida West Coast. The wind has been increasing
since this morning gusts to 30 mph. As that squall line approaches, the eyewall of the extratropical
cyclone, the stronger cells could produce 40-60 mph winds; sun is peeking out = severe
weather and instability.

Eyewall? The low hardly has any clouds around it. It's not a hurricane so there is no eyewall. The center is now inland north of Apalachicola, by the way. Winds around the low center are now 10-20 mph. Winds offshore are in the 15-30 mph range now. Just a very weak low on the front, that's it. Winds across Tampa won't be any different from ahead of any other cold front, just 10-20 mph.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, if we can consider the circular ring of convection around the calm center of a tropical cyclone an eyewall, can't we consider the linear band of convection extending Southward away from the center of an extra-tropical cyclone, aka the QLCS, or squall line, an 'eyewall' of sorts?

[wxman57]

Well, if we can consider the circular ring of convection around the calm center of a tropical cyclone an eyewall, can't we consider the linear band of convection extending Southward away from the center of an extra-tropical cyclone, aka the QLCS, or squall line, an 'eyewall' of sorts?

That would be no.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, if we can consider the circular ring of convection around the calm center of a tropical cyclone an eyewall, can't we consider the linear band of convection extending Southward away from the center of an extra-tropical cyclone, aka the QLCS, or squall line, an 'eyewall' of sorts?

That would be no.

No way to call the cloud streets feeder bands, you're saying...

[wxman57]

Feeder bands? Nope. They're not feeding into anything. It's just a cold front. Nothing more.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Feeder bands? Nope. They're not feeding into anything. It's just a cold front. Nothing more.

I didn't think so.

[Sanibel]

GFS storm of a few weeks back was fantasy.

Warm and humid enough down here for one more.

[wxman57]

GFS storm of a few weeks back was fantasy.

Warm and humid enough down here for one more.

Actually, the low developed very much as the GFS was forecasting, moving inland into the mid FL Panhandle yesterday. The GFS never forecast a major tropical event, just a frontal low, and that's what developed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS storm of a few weeks back was fantasy.

Warm and humid enough down here for one more.

Actually, the low developed very much as the GFS was forecasting, moving inland into the mid FL Panhandle yesterday. The GFS never forecast a major tropical event, just a frontal low, and that's what developed.

I think I just started the last TT thread for the ATL of 2008

Then, it'll be WxMan57 pouring cold water, as it were, on my GFS 18Z run 264 hour Houston ice storm threads...