Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

[Stormcenter]

I would consider a 40% chance as pretty darn high considering we are talking about the month of May over some pretty cool waters with a ton dry air still around. Anyway this has the makings of a "possible" sub-tropical system at best. Anything more would be very surprising.

I think I see what could be the start of a surface low -- right around Sarasota County just south of Tampa....movement is slowly WSW into the GOM. It is definitely feeling some good ridging building in now from the NW...that should keep it on a WSW to W course.

Watch this area over the next 24-48 hours:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-vis-loop.html

Expect some slow development of this system over the next couple of days with a moderate to low 40% chance of becoming Ana at this time. 90L is dead but this one appears it may do more as it is going to stay over the GOM for several days with lower shear and SSTs around 80F. The biggest obstace will be for it to transition from mid-levels to lower-levels and to mix out the cold air aloft to form a vertically stacked, warm-core, again a 40% chance at this time.

I am surprised nobody is here (I predict this board will be crowded again by about 24 hours from now) - 90L is dead but this one is the real one to watch this week (90L was never the real one to watch in the first place). Recall the original thread said "Late this week"...we are tracking to the forecast.

[hurricanefloyd5]

clearly see the low developing off the west coast of florida..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html

could we see a SubTropical Strom from that low near fort myers/Naples and will it stay near or close enought to the coast that if this would become SubTropical Storm ana that we here in central florida could see tropical storm warnings????????

[TropicalWXMA]

Latest observed sounding from Tampa Bay:

[hurricanefloyd5]

Latest observed sounding from Tampa Bay:

dose this show pressure fall from tampa?/

[tina25]

I'm in the Naples/Ft. Myers area and there is zero wind here. Clouds inland and north of me look very bizarre.

[TropicalWXMA]

It's more of a snapshot of the atmosphere and what's going on in it.

Latest observed sounding from Tampa Bay:

dose this show pressure fall from tampa?/

[srainhoutx]

Those with weekend plans along the N and NW GOM may need to keep an eye out. I noticed the EC and UKMET have shifted a weak low a bit further W into the Upper TX Coast.

[TropicalWXMA]

Can you take a picture and post it? I'm interested to see what the sky looks like!

I'm in the Naples/Ft. Myers area and there is zero wind here. Clouds inland and north of me look very bizarre.

[Category 5]

clearly see the low developing off the west coast of florida..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html

could we see a SubTropical Strom from that low near fort myers/Naples and will it stay near or close enought to the coast that if this would become SubTropical Storm ana that we here in central florida could see tropical storm warnings????????

Unless the shear decreases dramatically, it stops swallowing dry air, and it sits on the gulf stream for a week, no.

[Category 5]

clearly see the low developing off the west coast of florida..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html

could we see a SubTropical Strom from that low near fort myers/Naples and will it stay near or close enought to the coast that if this would become SubTropical Storm ana that we here in central florida could see tropical storm warnings????????

Unless the shear decreases dramatically, it stops swallowing dry air, no.

[hurricanefloyd5]

this could be tring to turn into a SubTropical System if it gets it act together!!!!!!!!!

[N2Storms]

[quote="srainhoutx"]Those with weekend plans along the N and NW GOM may need to keep an eye out. I noticed the EC and UKMET have shifted a weak low a bit further W into the Upper TX Coast.[/quote]



Keep an eye out for rain... IMO that'll be the main feature of this thing regardless of whether it is Tropical, Sub-Tropical or merely just an area of Low Pressure...it's highly unlikely that this will will be a wind maker of any significance

[Category 5]

this could be tring to turn into a SubTropical System if it gets it act together!!!!!!!!!

its not that simple

[KWT]

As others have said its doubtful that this system will become too strong even if it does end up becoming a tropical system of some sort, be it sub or tropical in its own right. We shall see!

This system could be a decent enough rainmaker where it does eventually come inland on the gulf, pretty much most of the rain will be on the northern side.

[srainhoutx]

this could be tring to turn into a SubTropical System if it gets it act together!!!!!!!!!

its not that simple

[Category 5]

this should extinguish any hopes of seeing ana. it will be a rainmaker at the least.

[Aric Dunn]

this should extinguish any hopes of seeing ana. it will be a rainmaker at the least.

if the shear stayed the same over 4 days then yeah .. but things change.. cant say never till its completely gone

[micktooth]

this should extinguish any hopes of seeing ana. it will be a rainmaker at the least.

Cat 5, can you please explain? As I am a novice, what are you seeing? Is it the deep trof in the Gulf?
Thanks!

[OpieStorm]

Yeah this thing had no chance to begin with. Wait a few weeks til we have something real to monitor.Enjoy the quiet while it lasts.

[Category 5]

this should extinguish any hopes of seeing ana. it will be a rainmaker at the least.

Cat 5, can you please explain? As I am a novice, what are you seeing? Is it the deep trof in the Gulf?
Thanks!

yes, plus theres a good amount of wind shear there as well.