GFS/NAM Develop a Closed Low in the GOM End of This Week

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

1009 mb low over the west gulf...but shear is very high and the
impulse is moving very fast- so no tropical development expected.

[wyq614]

Havana reached 51mm in about one and a half hours.

[gatorcane]

convective feedback issues at 120 hours?

[Dean4Storms]

Mobile AFD mentions this low..........


MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS A PRETTY STAGNANT STRETCH...WITH A GULF BREEZE
MAYBE FIRING OFF SOME AFTERNOON TSRA NEAR THE COAST. LATER TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...IS A DIFFERENT STORY. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A
WHOLE BUNCH OF UPPER ENERGY SWOOPING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST. GFS IS
ADVERTISING THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF...THEN TAKING IT EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN FL
PENINSULA. THE ECMWF TIMES THIS FEATURE LATER...DEVELOPING THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG A
FRONT THAT IS BEING ADVERTISED PUSHING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AT THAT
TIME. /16

Will bear watching IMO!

[Cyclone1]

Hmm...

I'll wait until we actually have something there to jump on this train, but still, might be worth keeping our eye on the Gulf next week.

[Yankeegirl]

bring me some rain!

[Ed Mahmoud]

bring me some rain!

The thread title is over a week old...


GFS has quiet tropics for the next week, and anything beyond that I don't really care about because it is beyond the lobotomization of the model's grid scale resolution.


Both the GFS and WRF (12Z runs) produce about one quarter inch precip in the next 3 days in our area.

[Ivanhater]

[Ed Mahmoud]

I saw that- looks a lot like convective feedback, seems driven by a disturbance in the Westerlies, and is onshore almost immediately.

In my humble and amateur opinion.

[srainhoutx]

MJO Pulse folks. EPAC has died. Model voodoo territory this early.

[deltadog03]

Just another sign, IMO that nino is coming......beware the STJ...lol

[Sanibel]

I think there's a faint attempt at formation NW of Yucatan right now but early conditions are ripping it up.

[poof121]

I think there's a faint attempt at formation NW of Yucatan right now but early conditions are ripping it up.

But shear is on the decrease...

[gatorcane]

NAM is now on this low, as cycloneye has pointed out in the models thread.

12Z GFS:

[tailgater]

Latest NAM run shows a slug of moisture/ weak low drifting northward to the La. cost then east towards Fla.
Just what doctor ordered for most of us.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[gatorcane]

Moisture on the increase in the GOM:

Upper-level winds are not favorable for any significant development though, in fact you are seeing this moisture as part of a 50K subtropical jet stream that has dipped into the Southern GOM and across Southern FL...not due to tropical influences.

[cycloneye]

18z NAM at 84 hours.

[BigA]

That 84 hour NAM model looks a heck of a lot like your typical early june lopsided gulf system (see Allison '95, Arlene '05, Alberto '06, Barry '07). I'm skeptical, but if more model runs show something, it seems moderately common the past few years.

[attallaman]

So that mass of rain and clouds south of LA/MS is what you're talking about? Any chance that my area might see some rain out of that system? We could use some more rain here in my neck of the woods.

[LaBreeze]

We had heavy t-storms moving north from the GOM this morning and now we are stuck with a very heavy t-storm sitting right on top and not moving at all. So far it has dumped just about 3 inches on us. Seems the earlier storms were on the move, but now they are making a transition from moving north to just sitting and possibly slight movement to the east/southeast.