Global- Tropics- So Quiet its Spooky!

[Cookie]

like people have stated in this thread many times a quite start to the season doesn't mean a quite season overall its all early days.

[brunota2003]

2004 comes to mind when thinking about late starting seasons...and I think we all know how Florida fared with that one...

[Andrew92]

2004 comes to mind when thinking about late starting seasons...and I think we all know how Florida fared with that one...

Or 1996 - for both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific combined. Yes, an unnamed storm did develop that year in the Eastern Pacific in May (from a tropical depression thought to not have been a tropical storm originally). But the next storm overall didn't develop until June 18, combining both basins. And a total of TEN hurricanes made landfalls somewhere in our corner of the world that year (yes, many of them category 1's, but some of them doozies).

-Andrew92

[KWT]

ECM still keen on a EPAC system forming around 120-144hrs.

Still I do think its only a matter of time before the Pacific finally wakes up given the rather rapid strengthening of the El Nino.

Edit- now have 92E.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the EPAC quietness will be over shortly and the record of June 19 1994 mantained.We have a Code Red.

[KWT]

Yep cycloneye, though it all depends on whether 92E can become a tropical storm, no certainties that even if it does develop it makes it onto the next step.

Still it does seem quite possible that the record will stand as you say.

[Cookie]

we need to add this to our smilies



for when it goes quite again

[HUC]

[OpieStorm]

Enjoy the quietness over here in the Atlantic while it lasts cause it's probably going to boom come mid to late August.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

I have heard that the leeward islands (I think that's what they are called) east of Puerto Rico (St Kitts/Nevis, Antiqua on down) get less hurricane action. Is this somewhat true anyone? I have a relative camping out there for the summer.

HUC- if we gather your tears and find a centrifuge together, maybe we can get something going (not -removed-).

WLD

[Dionne]

I have heard that the leeward islands (I think that's what they are called) east of Puerto Rico (St Kitts/Nevis, Antiqua on down) get less hurricane action. Is this somewhat true anyone? I have a relative camping out there for the summer.

HUC- if we gather your tears and find a centrifuge together, maybe we can get something going (not -removed-).

WLD

Kitts and Nevis were hit by Omar last season. The Four Seasons on Nevis.....the only 5 star in the EC....closed because of storm surge damage. Basseterre.....the capitol....is on the leeward side of Kitts. Omar hit Kitts coming out of the Carib. There was a lot of crime after Omar.

If your were to walk along the beach from North Frigate Bay (Kitts) in a NE direction, away from the cliffs.....you will find miles of both white and black sand beaches completely deserted. You can also see and walk through ruins left behind from previous hurricanes......not to mention some fine beach combing finds!!

Kitts now has the dubious distinction of being the murder capitol of the world for island nations. They still hang people on Kitts/Nevis. Amnesty International is now involved. The economic transition from sugar into tourism combined with several significant hurricane hits have challenged the small island nation. Unfortunately, the CIA fact sheet lists Kitts as a known trans-shipment point for drugs destined for both Europe and the U.S.

I really like Kitts. I'm fortunate.....I got there before the cruise ships arrived. I get along with the locals just fine. It's not one of the better islands in the EC to vacation, but it is the best to explore. The trade winds are 24/7. The rain forest is expanding. You cut a tree in the rain forest.....you go to jail. It's not a pretty jail, by any means.

You can literally live off the land. Locals still do.

OK....I'll shut up.

[cycloneye]

Finnally the EPAC has its first Tropical Cyclone.

[wxman57]

UK Met office has issued its forecast for the Atlantic Basin for July-November -- only 6 named storms:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... antic.html

[HURAKAN]

It could get boring!

[srainhoutx]

A lot of pre season prediction busts ahead.

[cycloneye]

A lot of pre season prediction busts ahead.

Those who have low numbers in the poll are looking good.

[vbhoutex]

A lot of pre season prediction busts ahead.

Those who have low numbers in the poll are looking good.

We can hope so!!!

[OpieStorm]

A lot of pre season prediction busts ahead.

Those who have low numbers in the poll are looking good.

Because we haven't had a storm in the first 2 weeks?

[HURAKAN]

If this El Niño is similar to what we saw in 2002 and in 2006, then we should expect about 9 to 12 storms between July and November based on what we saw during those years. Every year is different, lets see. I think my forecast is safe.

[KWT]

I think the UKMO forecast is very much on the extreme side but we shall see, the ONLY way I can see that happening is if we get into the strong category before we reach September just like 1997.

Still the idea of a low season is a pretty good one IMO, 2002 and 2006 both had higher SST's then this season which is bound to make a difference I'd have thought.