Weak trough from BOC to the Gulf of Tehauntepec

[MGC]

Some mid level spin is noted in the visable Sat loop.....It does appear to have a small window of opportunity to become a TD before landfall in Mexico......MGC

[HouTXmetro]

don't think this will do too much. These types of systems usually take some time. With the movement into Mexico, I do not see more than a TD out of this... and even that may be stretching it

Is there any chance once this gets on shore the mositure gets pulled up into TX and aid in our Sea Breeze fronts?

[Derek Ortt]

yeah... this likely will bring enhanced rain for coastal Texas, and even some inland areas

not sure if it will make it up to Houston though

[KatDaddy]

We could use any moisture available at the point in Texas.

[cycloneye]

SSD has Floater 1 over it.Precursor for invest 93L?



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

[tailgater]

HUH this would indicate something north of here.
Conditions at 42055 as of
(3:50 pm CDT)
2050 GMT on 06/22/2009: Unit of Measure: English Metric Time Zone: Station Local Time Greenwich Mean Time [GMT] British Summer Time [GMT+1] Eastern Greenland [GMT-1] Azores [GMT-2] Western Greenland [GMT-3] Atlantic Standard [GMT-4] US/Eastern Standard US/Central Standard US/Mountain Standard US/Pacific Standard Alaska Standard [GMT-9] Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10] Samoa Standard [GMT-11] International Date Line West [GMT-12] Western European [GMT+0] Central European [GMT+1] Eastern European [GMT+2] Moscow [GMT+3] USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4] USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5] USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6] USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7] China Coast [GMT+8] Japan Standard [GMT+9] Guam Standard [GMT+10] GMT+11 International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 270 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 1.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 99 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[Derek Ortt]

that sat image posted above is why this won't develop quickly

you need a surface low and convergence. A MLC just wont sustain convection

[lrak]

With a west wind, the center could try and form at 22n 94w ? Maybe the mid level is dissipating and the "little" spin over the buoy is taking over. Man I can wishcast huh.. The visible loop does seem to indicate a second spin a lot further off shore. Still moving WNW but maybe a bit more time for developement?

[brunota2003]

I see a bunch of convective debris and not much more than that.

[cycloneye]

977
ABNT20 KNHC 222343
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN
30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF
EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[lrak]

Check out the new convection at approximately 21n 94w? Looks like a bunch of low clouds swirling towards that point.

[Derek Ortt]

we also went with little chance of tropical cyclone formation from this system

[BigA]

I would expect the old MLC to head inland, and would be more interested in the new swirl to its southeast. The key is whether it can sustain sufficent convection and work to the surface.

[wxman57]

Just a little mid-level spin. There's nothing evident at the surface. I wouldn't consider any west wind at 1.9 kts confirmation of anything but light and variable winds in the BoC. At the rate the convection is moving to the WNW-NW, it should be inland by noon tomorrow. And it looks less impressive now than it did 3-4 hours ago.

We were discussing the NHC's mentioning of this disturbance and the lack of an invest. The NHC gives it a "less than 30% chance of development" with a slight risk of development. So how does a disturbance qualify for an invest? Can a system with a less than 30% chance of development (over the next 48 hours) become an invest? If so, then why is this NOT an invest? Could be that the NHC views the chances as being much closer to zero than to 30% of it developing. Thus, no invest.

As for the chances of getting any significant moisture up into Texas from this system, I think that the building ridge over Texas will shut most areas out of the moisture. There COULD be a few showers in the lower Valley, maybe Brownsville area tomorrow. But as for Corpus Christi and northward, forget it. That high is just too strong and is getting stronger tomorrow and Wednesday. The ridge might slip far enough to our west by the end of June to allow for some seabreeze storms to pop up along the mid to upper TX coast.

[lrak]

Just a little mid-level spin. There's nothing evident at the surface. I wouldn't consider any west wind at 1.9 kts confirmation of anything but light and variable winds in the BoC. At the rate the convection is moving to the WNW-NW, it should be inland by noon tomorrow. And it looks less impressive now than it did 3-4 hours ago.

We were discussing the NHC's mentioning of this disturbance and the lack of an invest. The NHC gives it a "less than 30% chance of development" with a slight risk of development. So how does a disturbance qualify for an invest? Can a system with a less than 30% chance of development (over the next 48 hours) become an invest? If so, then why is this NOT an invest? Could be that the NHC views the chances as being much closer to zero than to 30% of it developing. Thus, no invest.

As for the chances of getting any significant moisture up into Texas from this system, I think that the building ridge over Texas will shut most areas out of the moisture. There COULD be a few showers in the lower Valley, maybe Brownsville area tomorrow. But as for Corpus Christi and northward, forget it. That high is just too strong and is getting stronger tomorrow and Wednesday. The ridge might slip far enough to our west by the end of June to allow for some seabreeze storms to pop up along the mid to upper TX coast.

my hopes for rain and swell were




at least I can stop looking at the satellite loop for hours and hours.


Im so ready for some RAIN.

[srainhoutx]

Just a little mid-level spin. There's nothing evident at the surface. I wouldn't consider any west wind at 1.9 kts confirmation of anything but light and variable winds in the BoC. At the rate the convection is moving to the WNW-NW, it should be inland by noon tomorrow. And it looks less impressive now than it did 3-4 hours ago.

We were discussing the NHC's mentioning of this disturbance and the lack of an invest. The NHC gives it a "less than 30% chance of development" with a slight risk of development. So how does a disturbance qualify for an invest? Can a system with a less than 30% chance of development (over the next 48 hours) become an invest? If so, then why is this NOT an invest? Could be that the NHC views the chances as being much closer to zero than to 30% of it developing. Thus, no invest.

As for the chances of getting any significant moisture up into Texas from this system, I think that the building ridge over Texas will shut most areas out of the moisture. There COULD be a few showers in the lower Valley, maybe Brownsville area tomorrow. But as for Corpus Christi and northward, forget it. That high is just too strong and is getting stronger tomorrow and Wednesday. The ridge might slip far enough to our west by the end of June to allow for some seabreeze storms to pop up along the mid to upper TX coast.

my hopes for rain and swell were




at least I can stop looking at the satellite loop for hours and hours.


Im so ready for some RAIN.

Sorry, off topic...

[wxman57]

at least I can stop looking at the satellite loop for hours and hours.

Im so ready for some RAIN.

Don't be completely crushed. Long-range models (i.e., the GFS beyond 10 days) continues to predict that the ridge will shift westward a bit, allowing for weak troughing along the TX coast and perhaps daily rounds of seabreeze and afternoon storms - maybe even along the lower to mid coast. I was down in Corpus in March, I believe. It's so dry down there that the cactus are suffering.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well that poofed rather quickly.


New WRF shows a little bit of rain Port Aransas and points South...

[lrak]

I'll admit it, I've been endlessly looking for something, and my last gasp is just below the 22n 92w buoy there is a special spin created with about twenty loops going as fast as they can and my eyes going round and round. So before I go to bed I'll post Veracruz with a West wind http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html and the buoy with an ESE wind. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055 pressures are up all around and all the local meteorologist said "Slight" chance for a little rain and then H pressure...ACK. And Wxman57 I truely have a dead cactus in the back yard. I planted it in 1996, also one of our mesquite trees died out front. Have you ever tried to KILL a mesquite, its almost impossible.

[BigA]

A wee flareup of convection near where we last saw the swirl in the BOC. If its more impressive when I awake, perhaps something more will happen.