Development between Africa and Lesser Antilles (6/28 - 7/4)

[Ed Mahmoud]

one major difference

every model showed significant development with Bertha last year

Different Bertha, but indeed, this is mainly a GFS show.


ETA:
I was talking the 2006 Bertha. Too many Bertha's.

[boca]

one major difference

every model showed significant development with Bertha last year

Different Bertha, but indeed, this is mainly a GFS show.


ETA:
I was talking the 2006 Bertha. Too many Bertha's.

The GFS show is a giant tease.

[cycloneye]

Its already feeling the cooler waters.This pic updates every half an hour.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New 12Z GFS is one week away with a convectively active, but open, tropical wave approaching Puerto Rico and the NE Caribbean.

250 mb winds above it are generally light, but not really anticyclonic.

[HURAKAN]

[floridasun78]

let see what area do as leave afica go more into atlantic

[BigA]

The GFS has been nothing if not consistent about closing off an area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic, (as the 18z run shows as well) but the more recent runs open up the low later in the period.

I don't know if the GEFS model is based on the same data as the GFS, but in its 12z run it shows a closed circulation in the central Atlantic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_126l.gif

[clfenwi]

Whether this particular wave develops or not, this could still be a useful indication that the tropical Atlantic is nearing the point of being "open for business" and that we'll see the first tropical storm in July, rather than having to wait until August.

[StormTracker]

Whether this particular wave develops or not, this could still be a useful indication that the tropical Atlantic is nearing the point of being "open for business" and that we'll see the first tropical storm in July, rather than having to wait until August.

I was just thinking the same thing! You took the words right out of my mouth!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

The GFS has been nothing if not consistent about closing off an area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic, (as the 18z run shows as well) but the more recent runs open up the low later in the period.

I don't know if the GEFS model is based on the same data as the GFS, but in its 12z run it shows a closed circulation in the central Atlantic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... r_126l.gif

IIRC, the GEFS are ensemble runs of the GFS, run at lower resolution, with small tweaks in the initial conditions built in. If most ensemble members are close to the GFS, it suggests the GFS solution is fairly robust, if the solutions vary significantly, it suggests very small perturbations have a big effect on the outcome, and therefore confidence in the operational GFS solution is lower.

"Spaghetti plot"- some GFS ensemble members see a low, some don't.
Most don't.

[cycloneye]

The NWS in San Juan is only with a wet 4th of July weekend and nothing more.

MODELS ARE NOW
PROJECTING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE TO PASS AROUND 3
JULY AT 00Z...FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER WAVE ON 5 JULY. THIS IS THE
MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SHOWERS TO END WHAT IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE
A LONG DRY SPELL FOR MANY PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[knotimpaired]

Luis,

Is there not a correlation about receiving African Dust and the formulation of tropical storms/hurricanes?

I thought at one time I read that as long as there was the dust, formation was not likely to amount to much.

We cannot see Culebra nor PR and they predict this for quite some time.

Or do I have Mad Cow?

[cycloneye]

My % for this to form into a Tropical Cyclone has diminushed to 2% from yesterdays 10%.I still have a small open window because the EURO model brings a good wave (Nothng more) all the way to the islands.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[cycloneye]

Luis,

Is there not a correlation about receiving African Dust and the formulation of tropical storms/hurricanes?

I thought at one time I read that as long as there was the dust, formation was not likely to amount to much.

We cannot see Culebra nor PR and they predict this for quite some time.

Or do I have Mad Cow?

If there are many big sal outbreaks,it cuts into tropical cyclone formations in the Atlantic east of us.

[gone2beach]

Here's the link to NoGaps:

http://www.nwmangum.com/NOGAPS.phtml

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS continues to showcase the wave with a weak low,but beyond 40w longitud it weakens.A second strong wave is shown behind.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

The EURO continues to show a strong wave moving towards the Lesser Antilles islands.Is a wave that emerges late saturday.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[cycloneye]

In Saturdays 12z GFS run,it has a little stronger wave with a low pressure.The low weakens,but the wave mantains fairly strong and arrives in the NE Caribbean just in time for the 4th of July weekend.

Loop below.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[cycloneye]

Note=I edited the title to change from next to this week.If this week nothing occurs,then this thread will die down the pages.

Lets see what happens this week as impulses or wavelike features will be emerging Africa and some of the models have low pressure attached for a while.

[cycloneye]

This is a great panomaramic view from the Lesser Antilles to the Arabian sea.Its getting close for this thread to die unless one of those wavelike features gets organized this week.

NRL Monterrey site