Disturbance in the Carribean Sea

[vbhoutex]

Please let's get back on the real subject of this thread even though it is about to exit the Caribbean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Last visible satellite loop of the Caribbean "disturbance".

[OpieStorm]

Interesting to see what will come out of this when it gets to the Gulf. The Gulf doesn't seem nearly as hostile as it has been this summer.

[tailgater]

I can see a tiny spin @16.7n 85.3 w. If someone can put this in motion (I can't) zoomed in, please do. I'm not sure if it's mid or low level but it something to watch until darkness.

[tailgater]

Looks like it's trying to get it's act together. WXman 57 can you get a Garp of the area just north of Houdras.
from the 805 TWD
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OBSERVED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 78W-85W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA..HONDURAS...AND CUBA.

[Nimbus]

Looks like an upper level anticyclone building over the area. Is this headed across the Yucatan into the western gulf?

[tailgater]

Looks like an upper level anticyclone building over the area. Is this headed across the Yucatan into the western gulf?

probably just the BOC according to this chart?

[HURAKAN]

Popping.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The winds slow as they approach C. America, increasing confluence and decreasing shear.


GFS 850 mb vorticity progs show nada in the GOMEX through 7 days.
Edit pending, looking at old GFS run...
Ignore GFS sentence.


NAM shows it crossing Yucatan, and skimming extreme Southern bay of Campeche with no significant development.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

probably will become nothing but worth watching given the absence of anything else in the basin

[tailgater]

probably will become nothing but worth watching given the absence of anything else in the basin

Looks Invest worthy this morning pre daylight..


IF there is a low developing it would likely be west of the Blob this morning.
Cancel low developing thought as I can find no surface winds to support anything this morning.

[lrak]

Here we go again I love the anticipation, but I don't like the storms well except for the swells and rain...NO BAD WIND.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian develops something in the Pacific in 4 days, although not directly from this, GFS nada. They do both lower pressure a teeny bit Southern BoC, but not a hint of TC formation.

[tailgater]

I don't see anything in the first vis. sat pics this morning that would indicate anything near the surface, but east winds slow down a lot in the GOH. The high pressure is supposed to build back soon so it probably doesn't have much of a chance.

[wxman57]

Wave axis is already moving inland into the Yucatan/southern MX and convection is on the decrease. Just a brief flare-up in storms as the wave slowed down a bit and convergence increased. Nothing more.

Keep an eye off the coast of the Carolinas tomorrow for a low development. Won't be tropical to start, but the NHC's naming trigger finger may be getting itchy.

[Nimbus]

I'm probably seeing imaginary things but there are some low clouds near the coast moving east that almost look like inflow.

[tailgater]

I'm probably seeing imaginary things but there are some low clouds near the coast moving east that almost look like inflow.

I see what looks like a collapsing thunderstorm's mid level spin @ 17.4N 85.1W



After looking for this spin(eddy) on IR I don't really see it, so I guess it's possible that it's near the surface because it shows up nicely Visible loops.

[lrak]

I see it too, what an illusion.

[BigA]

From looking at the close up visible, I think the circulation exists at the surface (I say low clouds moving in a circular pattern) but it won't amount to much unless it refires convection, and in any event, it will be moving into the Yucatan tonight. Perhaps the disturbance will get going over the BOC, but I tend to think development unlikely.

[wxman57]

Let's take a look at a surface plot with a satellite overlay. I see no evidence of any circulation at the surface. I do see what looks like a mid-level rotation where I've indicated with the red "X". But all surface wind reports in the area are either out of the east or east-southeast at 15-20 kts. And pressures are relatively high in the area (1012-1013mb).



Now you can clearly see why thunderstorms flared up in the western Caribbean in the past 12-24 hours by looking at the 850mb wind flow in the region. Note that there are very strong easterly winds just east of this area of storms. What happened is that the wave slowed down in the slower wind flow, resulting in increased convergence (and storms) there. Here's this morning's 850mb isotach analysis:



Now, the prediction for tomorrow afternoon has those very strong 850mb winds extending into the Bay of Campeche. But by that time, this disturbance will be mostly in the East Pac.