Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?

[Sanibel]

I would say no to development but these things have a strange tendency to find unseen favorability further west. Too weak.

I'd watch the wave currently exiting Africa to possibly steal the center.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shows a sharp amplified trough digging all the way down into the northern part of the BOC -- very impressive for this time of year and is more of a winter-time setup. If this verifies and this system is in the Western Atlantic prior to about 192 hours, its definitely going fishing.

Around 192+ hours, that trough quickly lifts out and there is more of a zonal flow across the CONUS, more typical for the middle of end of July. Of course model accuracy is pretty low this far out so these ridges and troughs could change.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9071312!!/

[KWT]

It does look moderatly interesting and given there is nothing at all out there I suppose its worth tracking. My thoughts is that its just the usual burst in the ITCZ that we tend to get around this time of year. It could develop, though if it is I would bet it would be quite far north which tends to be a little more favorable for development in El Ninos. In other words I think it may have a shot much further down the line, somewhat similar to the ECM.

I just feel its a little early yet, esp in El nino conditions.

[Sanibel]

Just came back from zoomed Central Atlantic loop. Think we might have something here. Think I see tell-tale rotation. See if it bursts tonight.

Has the look of a system that starts to show favorable ITCZ development but gets blown away by hostile synoptic border further along. Or it develops.

[cycloneye]

For the first time in 2009 this appears in that part of the Basin.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/

[wx247]

Well at least there is something to track, at the minimum. I agree with those who think this is likely a slow developer, if at all... I want to see something sustained here first before I get too concerned.

[Category 5]

0.8-1% chance, thats gotta have a big payout if you bet and win.

[KWT]

I'm guessing though thats the odds of it forming right at this very moment though, since its a current estimate?

How long into the future does it extend, like does the risk only cover the 6hr period between now and the next update, or longer?

[jinftl]

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) estimates the probability of tropical cyclone formation within the next 24 hours in 5° by 5° latitude/longitude sub-regions from 0° to 45°N and 100°E to 10°W.

Current shear in the area is pretty low...and could remain so to the west of the system for the next several days...

I'm guessing though thats the odds of it forming right at this very moment though, since its a current estimate?

How long into the future does it extend, like does the risk only cover the 6hr period between now and the next update, or longer?

[cycloneye]

Another view of the 12z EURO at 168 hours,just north of Puerto Rico.

[BigA]

Slightly more concentrated convection developing with the part of the wave between 30 and 35 west.

[hawkeh]

Interesting, we may actually see this one develop. Conditions don't seem to be that terrible right? I just see lots of dry air to the north that may put a cap on it...

[jinftl]

Low latitude means it is moving over warmer water than say if it was around 15N...but climatology is against it developing...it isn't cape verde season yet....any development would put this system less than 2 weeks behind bertha in 2008...which was the earliest cape verde system ever (forming on 7/3/08).

[wxman57]

Slightly more concentrated convection developing with the part of the wave between 30 and 35 west.

I'm seeing the opposite now. Tops are warming and convection more spread out in the last 3-4 hours. Development chances are low, but there is a slight chance.

[KWT]

True but I suspect the odds are this won't form for a while yet even if it does go on to develop. Still we will see.

[cycloneye]

And now three.Oh the UKMET! Nothing strong but.

12z UKMET

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS bullish and with this system passing about 75-100 miles NE of the Leewards

Note huge trough setting up along the Eastern CONUS ready to deflect it away.

[Aric Dunn]

18Z GFS bullish and with this system passing about 75-100 miles NE of the Leewards

Note huge trough setting up along the Eastern CONUS ready to deflect it away.

yes but like the 12z run that trough lifts out and the system stalls a little till the next short wave comes along ..

[cycloneye]

Nada.

870
ABNT20 KNHC 132341
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[cycloneye]

This quickScat pass was at 4:21 PM EDT.It shows some barbs turning around 7N-38W,but nothing impressive at this time.