Wave near the Lesser Antilles

[Aric Dunn]

yeah its starting to pop for sure....

next few hours will tell the tale this one looks to be quite a bit more intense and concentrated.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

As the vorticity associated with this wave moves WNW-NW the next few days it'll remain in a high shear zone, and the shear increases to 40-50 kts in 72 hours. Not much chance of development once it passes east of the Bahamas and moves into the jet core off the east U.S. Coast. Really looking like we'll make it to August without a named storm.

[Aric Dunn]

As the vorticity associated with this wave moves WNW-NW the next few days it'll remain in a high shear zone, and the shear increases to 40-50 kts in 72 hours. Not much chance of development once it passes east of the Bahamas and moves into the jet core off the east U.S. Coast. Really looking like we'll make it to August without a named storm.

well that would the northern half of the wave..... the carribean becomes favorable in 12 to 24 hours... so it all depends on where the most of the energy goes .. either north or south
CMC is calling south and euro calling north .. NHC has the 2 pieces of the wave in 48 hours one over the west central carrib and the smaller piece over the bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

not only that the euro and now the GFS develop it as it starts accelerating up the east coast somewhere near the Carolina's in 4 days. you can never rule out a system developing while it accelerates with shear and or some baroclinic enhancement.

[Ed Mahmoud]

not only that the euro and now the GFS develop it as it starts accelerating up the east coast somewhere near the Carolina's in 4 days. you can never rule out a system developing while it accelerates with shear and or some baroclinic enhancement.

The GFS system running up the East Coast doesn't look particularly tropical.


I think Wxman57 is right. No development anytime soon. In my humble, amateur and unofficial opinion.

[Aric Dunn]

not only that the euro and now the GFS develop it as it starts accelerating up the east coast somewhere near the Carolina's in 4 days. you can never rule out a system developing while it accelerates with shear and or some baroclinic enhancement.

The GFS system running up the East Coast doesn't look particularly tropical.


I think Wxman57 is right. No development anytime soon. In my humble, amateur and unofficial opinion.

will have to wait for the phase diagram to show up for it.. to see what it is.


although the 18z one starts it as warm core... but will see clearly im not putting to much faith in it .. but we have learned many times now you just never know .. it may look out of the question ..
more times than not they develop when we lest expect it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

not only that the euro and now the GFS develop it as it starts accelerating up the east coast somewhere near the Carolina's in 4 days. you can never rule out a system developing while it accelerates with shear and or some baroclinic enhancement.

The GFS system running up the East Coast doesn't look particularly tropical.


I think Wxman57 is right. No development anytime soon. In my humble, amateur and unofficial opinion.

will have to wait for the phase diagram to show up for it.. to see what it is.

850 mb vorticity fields look very unsymterical, like a low with attached fronts. At the surface, it never gets beyond an inverted trough while over water warm enough to support tropical development.

Maybe one of those "Hybrid howlers", that have some tropical charecteristics (tropical moisture, anyway), but not a named system, from the looks of the GFS.

I will say, the low level feature per the GFS is a tad too far West to benefit, (getting into steep shear from the SW) but if it were a little slower, it would be under a nice anticyclone aloft.

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not much is left now of either wave, as expected. These waves are just your typical waves traversing the Atlantic in July. One of them saw enhanced convection due to interaction with the TUTT -- convection forecasted by HPC several days ago. Keep in mind only 10-15% of Atlantic waves develop. These two waves are very likely not going to fall into that percentage.

Give it about 3 weeks or so, WxMan's Aug. 8th projection is not looking all that off at the moment. That Atlantic is just not favorable for development between the SAL and the TUTTs around. I wouldn't be surprised if we are in the latter part of August before we see any significant development so maybe more like 4 weeks.

[Aric Dunn]

again .. depends on where the energy goes.. cmc like the southern route which would keep it in at least marginal conditions..

here is the Euro at 96 hours

its look more tropical .. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[jinftl]

The atlantic east of the islands is unfavorable from the standpoint of climatology the second half of july....in other words, the unfavorable conditions out there right now are to be expected and certainly are not a 2009 anomaly. In 150 years of data shown below, you can count on one hand the number of storms that have formed east of 55W from July 16 - 31. Boy does that map change in August though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Not much is left now of either wave, as expected. These waves are just your typical waves traversing the Atlantic in July. One of them saw enhanced convection due to interaction with the TUTT -- convection forecasted by HPC several days ago. Keep in mind only 10-15% of Atlantic waves develop. These two waves are very likely not going to fall into that percentage.

Give it about 3 weeks or so, WxMan's Aug. 8th projection is not looking all that off at the moment. That Atlantic is just not favorable for development between the SAL and the TUTTs around. I wouldn't be surprised if we are in the latter part of August before we see any significant development so maybe more like 4 weeks.

[Aric Dunn]

THere are a few storms missing out there.... lol both bertha's for starters..

[cheezyWXguy]

THere are a few storms missing out there.... lol both bertha's for starters..

well it only goes out to 2006

[Aric Dunn]

THere are a few storms missing out there.... lol both bertha's for starters..

well it only goes out to 2006

still where is the first bertha that was 96?

[Recurve]

Aric, thanks for the info on conditions ahead of the wave.
If high pressure above and low shear happens, this could be interesting. Strong trough digging into the Gulf now, but I guess that will be past in no time.

[weatherwindow]

THere are a few storms missing out there.... lol both bertha's for starters..

well it only goes out to 2006

still where is the first bertha that was 96?

bertha 96..5july-17july fell outside the limits of the chart.."forming 16-31july"....rich

[tailgater]

Looking a little better this afternoon
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... XTQRaY.jpg

[meteorologyman]

What is the future of a Tropical Wave thats closer to Africa "not 97L"? I don't know if it's worth opening a new post since it's interacting ITCZ

[tailgater]

Some T-storms near weak vorticity in a small low shear area, lets see if can deepen as it clears Haiti. Shear likely to do it in, but pretty hard to predict so I'll keep an eye on it.