Do NOT focus on if the system is a major hurricane

[mpic]

I don't think anyone is saying that winds aren't important at all. It's that the storm surge isn't emphasized as much as it should be.

[GalvestonDuck]

For the most part, it's not that folks in Galveston (or Bolivar or Gilchrist or Surfside or any the other places that the media forgot were also hit by Ike) treated it lightly. The media treated it lightly early on and then some people weren't paying enough attention to what was being said when it finally was emphasized.

A big part of the problem is that the ONLY ones you saw on the news were the ones drinking beers on the Poop Deck and/or laughing about staying because the rest were busy trying to haul it out of here and didn't have time to stop and speak to the media. Furthermore, a lot of people weren't treating it as lightly as the media was. There were several of us who were calling people and reading that "will face certain death" bit from the NHC in order to make them understand that Ike was a big storm and that, without a doubt, there would be a surge. They needed to evacuate.

And finally, it's not that nearly 40% of Galveston (not sure of the numbers for other cities or towns) WOULDN'T leave. It's that they COULDN'T leave because there wasn't enough emphasis on the cone instead of the line. (You can tell people until you're blue in the face, but they won't listen. And if they've lived here all their life, they insist they know better.) I remember hearing coworkers saying, "It's going to Corpus" while others of us were saying, "Are you ready if it's not?" and "It doesn't matter, we're still on the dirty side." Heck, even UTMB insisted on saying, "It's business as usual here, blah, blah, blah...." but that they would continue to monitor the storm. We had patients evacuated on the Wednesday before Rita. But for Ike, it didn't happen until Thursday. Non-essential employees even had to report for work on Thursday. LESS THAN 48 HOURS before landfall. We had to. We had to secure computers, files, equipment, etc. because someone insisted that UTMB continue with business as usual up to that point. When the people of Galveston hear that UTMB staff have been released in preparation for an impending storm, they know it must be serious. When they hear UTMB is evacuating patients, then they REALLY know it's serious. But when it doesn't happen until 48 hours before landfall, how do you get through to them? How do you drill it into their heads -- go! NOW!

So, once they finally saw UTMB was evacuating, they said, "Uh oh!" and finally started packing to leave. Unfortunately, not all of them got to leave because the water started to cover the streets and roadways. However, you have to give A LOT of them credit. Maybe they didn't all evacuate. Maybe they got stuck here and had to ride out the storm. But they were prepared to survive. Sure, there were some deaths -- those who tried to leave too late and the water took them out. But most of those who stayed were prepared to survive. It wasn't comfortable. But they had their supplies to live. Those whose homes were destroyed weren't so lucky because their emergency supplies went with the surge (most of the Bolivar area and some on the west end of Galveston). But most of that 40% who stayed and whose homes still stood after Ike were able to survive with their emergency supplies. This wasn't like New Orleans after Katrina broke the levees and flooded part of the Big Easy.

It's a great point you're making, Derek, and I assume when you say "end up like those on Galveston during Ike," you mean, "stuck." I just had to point out that, although not everyone evacuated, almost everyone WAS prepared. Ike was not treated lightly here and neither are Cat 1's or tropical storms. If someone doesn't evacuate, they're probably better off if they end up like the few who did stay in Galveston (prepared) than if they don't.

[Flyinman]

Excellent post.
I have experienced Rita, Humberto and Ike all having different impacts on Southeast Texas. I can tell you even though Humberto was only a Cat 1 and not very wide, the damage was devestating in the areas that received a direct hit. Also, we have several commercial properties that received almost equal damage with Rita (Cat 4) and Ike (Cat 2). We had claims in excess of $2 million on one office building. Both hurricanes took off the roof. With Rita we saw more building flex but both did a lot of damage. On the other hand, Rita did not do much damage at all to Bolivar, however Ike took our Beach house with it. I know Bolivar was on different sides of each storm but again the devastation on Bolivar is undescribable. All on this board, who has not seen what Ike left behind needs to. I would be more than happy to give you a tour and show you photos of before and after.

All that being said, the media did not relay the importance of this storm and I like others who follow this site, read about Ike in the early stages and prepared my family as well as others. I never have taken a storm lightly nor do I ever intend to. To me a lot of the downplay with storms began after Andrew. We were ordered to evacuate in SE Texas and the storm turned into LA. That was the first time an evacuation order was ordered for a storm of that magnitude. People screamed they we "forced" to evacuate and nothing happened. It seems the media would rather dowmplay the ferocity of these storms rather than tell the public the truth.

The morning before a major storm hits is no time to be telling people they will face imminent death.

This site is very valuable and I appreciate it everyday. Keep up the good work Guys!

[Derek Ortt]

one minor point, Rita was only a very marginal 3 at landfall with 100KT winds (I suspect it was a cat 2 like Ike,, but that's another story)

[CrazyC83]

Excellent post.
I have experienced Rita, Humberto and Ike all having different impacts on Southeast Texas. I can tell you even though Humberto was only a Cat 1 and not very wide, the damage was devestating in the areas that received a direct hit. Also, we have several commercial properties that received almost equal damage with Rita (Cat 4) and Ike (Cat 2). We had claims in excess of $2 million on one office building. Both hurricanes took off the roof. With Rita we saw more building flex but both did a lot of damage. On the other hand, Rita did not do much damage at all to Bolivar, however Ike took our Beach house with it. I know Bolivar was on different sides of each storm but again the devastation on Bolivar is undescribable. All on this board, who has not seen what Ike left behind needs to. I would be more than happy to give you a tour and show you photos of before and after.

All that being said, the media did not relay the importance of this storm and I like others who follow this site, read about Ike in the early stages and prepared my family as well as others. I never have taken a storm lightly nor do I ever intend to. To me a lot of the downplay with storms began after Andrew. We were ordered to evacuate in SE Texas and the storm turned into LA. That was the first time an evacuation order was ordered for a storm of that magnitude. People screamed they we "forced" to evacuate and nothing happened. It seems the media would rather dowmplay the ferocity of these storms rather than tell the public the truth.

The morning before a major storm hits is no time to be telling people they will face imminent death.

This site is very valuable and I appreciate it everyday. Keep up the good work Guys!

Rita did very little damage in the Bolivar since it was well to the west of the center and the onshore surge (from the bay side) was minimal.

[Derek Ortt]

For the most part, it's not that folks in Galveston (or Bolivar or Gilchrist or Surfside or any the other places that the media forgot were also hit by Ike) treated it lightly. The media treated it lightly early on and then some people weren't paying enough attention to what was being said when it finally was emphasized.

A big part of the problem is that the ONLY ones you saw on the news were the ones drinking beers on the Poop Deck and/or laughing about staying because the rest were busy trying to haul it out of here and didn't have time to stop and speak to the media. Furthermore, a lot of people weren't treating it as lightly as the media was. There were several of us who were calling people and reading that "will face certain death" bit from the NHC in order to make them understand that Ike was a big storm and that, without a doubt, there would be a surge. They needed to evacuate.

And finally, it's not that nearly 40% of Galveston (not sure of the numbers for other cities or towns) WOULDN'T leave. It's that they COULDN'T leave because there wasn't enough emphasis on the cone instead of the line. (You can tell people until you're blue in the face, but they won't listen. And if they've lived here all their life, they insist they know better.) I remember hearing coworkers saying, "It's going to Corpus" while others of us were saying, "Are you ready if it's not?" and "It doesn't matter, we're still on the dirty side." Heck, even UTMB insisted on saying, "It's business as usual here, blah, blah, blah...." but that they would continue to monitor the storm. We had patients evacuated on the Wednesday before Rita. But for Ike, it didn't happen until Thursday. Non-essential employees even had to report for work on Thursday. LESS THAN 48 HOURS before landfall. We had to. We had to secure computers, files, equipment, etc. because someone insisted that UTMB continue with business as usual up to that point. When the people of Galveston hear that UTMB staff have been released in preparation for an impending storm, they know it must be serious. When they hear UTMB is evacuating patients, then they REALLY know it's serious. But when it doesn't happen until 48 hours before landfall, how do you get through to them? How do you drill it into their heads -- go! NOW!

So, once they finally saw UTMB was evacuating, they said, "Uh oh!" and finally started packing to leave. Unfortunately, not all of them got to leave because the water started to cover the streets and roadways. However, you have to give A LOT of them credit. Maybe they didn't all evacuate. Maybe they got stuck here and had to ride out the storm. But they were prepared to survive. Sure, there were some deaths -- those who tried to leave too late and the water took them out. But most of those who stayed were prepared to survive. It wasn't comfortable. But they had their supplies to live. Those whose homes were destroyed weren't so lucky because their emergency supplies went with the surge (most of the Bolivar area and some on the west end of Galveston). But most of that 40% who stayed and whose homes still stood after Ike were able to survive with their emergency supplies. This wasn't like New Orleans after Katrina broke the levees and flooded part of the Big Easy.

It's a great point you're making, Derek, and I assume when you say "end up like those on Galveston during Ike," you mean, "stuck." I just had to point out that, although not everyone evacuated, almost everyone WAS prepared. Ike was not treated lightly here and neither are Cat 1's or tropical storms. If someone doesn't evacuate, they're probably better off if they end up like the few who did stay in Galveston (prepared) than if they don't.

maybe show this to UTMB. Seems they did not treat the storm as seriously as they should have

[Cape Verde]

To quote Eric Salna, "A hurricane is a hurricane, is a hurricane". Do not treat a hurricane lightly just because it is not "major" hurricane. If you do so, you could end up like those on Galveston during Ike.

That's a very good point, but I think I can pretty much guarantee that nobody who posted or lurked here regarding Ike was caught in Galveston or on the Bolivar Peninsula when Ike hit. It was crystal clear here at Storm2k from the discussion before landfall that the surge was going to be major even if the storm itself was not in terms of windspeed.

Frankly, anyone who stays on a beach house even in a Category 1 storm should have their head examined. We've seen storms bomb like Charlie did, and it's just not worth taking needless chances.

[Downdraft]

I'd like to take it even further Derek. Having been flooded out by a measly tropical storm like Fay last year I think a tropical cyclone of any category is not to be taken lightly by anyone. I keep hearing things like it's "only" a depression or storm and it makes me think that the wind lovers truly don't understand the dynamics of a tropical system. A lot of these lower end storms are quite capable of dumping 15 to 20 inches of rain on you given the right conditions. Wind is not the primary way a cyclone releases its energy, rain is.

[docjoe]

sometimes folks need to have the crap scared out of them to truly recognize how bad even a "weak" tropical system can be. I lived in Santa Rosa county about 10 miles inland as the crow flies during ivan and dennis. although there was a large evacuation for Ivan many folks stayed. We had a long period of sustained Cat 1 conditions in Santa Rosa but not cat 3. However there were many folks who thought they survived a cat 3. When Dennis came through many folks stayed because they had survived "cat 3" Ivan. Well during Dennis Santa Rosa had some cat 3 conditions along the coast and solid cat 2 conditions with probable cat 3 gusts. Although Dennis was short lived his wind was a whole different magnitude than the hour after hour after hour of Ivan. I have never in my life seem anything like the short period of time when the eyewall of Dennis came through my neighborhood. My point is human beings often have to experience somethings first hand before they believe it. I have no doubt there are folks in the Milton/Pace area that will not think twice about leaving now although there is always a contingent of folks who will stick it out regardless

joe

[KWT]

I notice the NHC now using the M symbol for a major hurricane on thier maps. Is this not a somewhat risky thing to do?

For example what happens if we have a category-3 system like Ike that is meant to weaken to 95kts before landfall? The map shows a Major hurricane then a H next point as its expected to weaken to a cat-2, and that would make people think that its 'only' going to be a hurricane which they may be able to weather the storm. Sadly I think most people under estimate the power of a cat-2 and even cat-1 quite a lot and unless they've been hit by one in recent years people are much more likely to risk it

[thetruesms]

I notice the NHC now using the M symbol for a major hurricane on thier maps. Is this not a somewhat risky thing to do?

For example what happens if we have a category-3 system like Ike that is meant to weaken to 95kts before landfall? The map shows a Major hurricane then a H next point as its expected to weaken to a cat-2, and that would make people think that its 'only' going to be a hurricane which they may be able to weather the storm. Sadly I think most people under estimate the power of a cat-2 and even cat-1 quite a lot and unless they've been hit by one in recent years people are much more likely to risk it

I've been torn on this - on the one hand, I like it because it gives a little better glimpse of intensity forecast in that graphic. But really, if they're going to do that, why not just put a category number in there? On the other hand, I have the same concerns that you do on its public impact, especially in a hypothetical situation in which a weak 3 is expected to weaken slightly to a strong 2. On the graphic, you'll have an M downgrade to an H, which creates an illusion in which the storm is weakening significantly, when it's just not the case.

[Lurker]

It seems that we are over analyzing this. If a storm is heading in and you are in the "danger" zone you will get instructions from local authorities. I doubt that Joe Public is going to be watching every update from the NHC and say YES it is now only a little H coming in I'm safe phew.

I notice the NHC now using the M symbol for a major hurricane on thier maps. Is this not a somewhat risky thing to do?

For example what happens if we have a category-3 system like Ike that is meant to weaken to 95kts before landfall? The map shows a Major hurricane then a H next point as its expected to weaken to a cat-2, and that would make people think that its 'only' going to be a hurricane which they may be able to weather the storm. Sadly I think most people under estimate the power of a cat-2 and even cat-1 quite a lot and unless they've been hit by one in recent years people are much more likely to risk it

I've been torn on this - on the one hand, I like it because it gives a little better glimpse of intensity forecast in that graphic. But really, if they're going to do that, why not just put a category number in there? On the other hand, I have the same concerns that you do on its public impact, especially in a hypothetical situation in which a weak 3 is expected to weaken slightly to a strong 2. On the graphic, you'll have an M downgrade to an H, which creates an illusion in which the storm is weakening significantly, when it's just not the case.

[Ptarmigan]

I'd like to take it even further Derek. Having been flooded out by a measly tropical storm like Fay last year I think a tropical cyclone of any category is not to be taken lightly by anyone. I keep hearing things like it's "only" a depression or storm and it makes me think that the wind lovers truly don't understand the dynamics of a tropical system. A lot of these lower end storms are quite capable of dumping 15 to 20 inches of rain on you given the right conditions. Wind is not the primary way a cyclone releases its energy, rain is.

I can relate to that too. TS Allison in 2001 was a weak storm and dumped up to 40 inches in 5 days, including 28 inches in 12 hours and possibly 33 inches.

[Ptarmigan]

Although Ike was a 2, it was a major hurricane. There are major hurricanes that do not make landfall and end up fish and some do not do much damage like Bret in 1999. I think the term major hurricane should be for hurricanes that do a lot of damage regardless of how strong they are.

[CrazyC83]

Bill, although barely a Cat 2 right now, has an IKE of 83 and a destructive potential of 4.6.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

[thetruesms]

Bill, although barely a Cat 2 right now, has an IKE of 83 and a destructive potential of 4.6.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour04.png

I could have sworn that they had nothing up for the 2009 season the other day when I checked there . . . am I going crazy?

[HurricaneBill]

An excellent example of what a Category 1-2 hurricane can do:

This link has photo galleries of the damage in Halifax caused by Hurricane Juan in 2003.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=F0E43FF7-1

[StormingB81]

You can always see it. noone respect the rain. I mean don't get me wrong I am a big fan of wind (not damage) but when someone sees water going down the street they will drive throug hit not thinking and get swept away. water currents can be very strong.

[Category 5]

You can always see it. noone respect the rain. I mean don't get me wrong I am a big fan of wind (not damage) but when someone sees water going down the street they will drive throug hit not thinking and get swept away. water currents can be very strong.

Wind but no damage, good luck with that.

[Ptarmigan]

Tropical Storm Frances was a large tropical storm in 1998. It did considerable beach erosion, even worse than Alicia. It had TS winds extending up to 345 miles. Also, it was a huge rain maker over a large area.