New large wave behind Bill east of Lesser Antilles

[Gustywind]

Good and juicy convection...maybe an interresting thing to watch if it could pass entirely the "POOF TEST " during the next couple of days.

[Sanibel]

I think the Atlantic synoptic is weak and out to sea.


We were due for such a pattern after the low-trackers.

[KWT]

I think the thing is both Ana and Bill formed pretty far east and you can see the big difference strength has made, Ana did have weaknesses to its north but was so weak it didn't get picked up, whilst Bill is loads stronger and is therefore feeling them more.

If this stays weak then as the models show it won't lift out till at least later on.

[ConvergenceZone]

Unlike Bill that had "recurve" written all over it, I don't think this one will necessarily recurve if it develops(unless it develops extremely quickly) . It could be a long-tracker.

[Gustywind]

Unlike Bill that had "recurve" written all over it, I don't think this one will necessarily recurve if it develops(unless it develops extremely quickly) . It could be a long-tracker.

Absolutely, that's why it could be something to watch during the next couple of days if the POOF TEST is ok .

[ConvergenceZone]

Unlike Bill that had "recurve" written all over it, I don't think this one will necessarily recurve if it develops(unless it develops extremely quickly) . It could be a long-tracker.

Absolutely, that's why it could be something to watch during the next couple of days if the POOF TEST is ok .

Yep, we want it to develop quickly so that it WILL recurve...

[Gustywind]

Unlike Bill that had "recurve" written all over it, I don't think this one will necessarily recurve if it develops(unless it develops extremely quickly) . It could be a long-tracker.

Absolutely, that's why it could be something to watch during the next couple of days if the POOF TEST is ok .

Yep, we want it to develop quickly so that it WILL recurve...

Only Mother Nature knows that...

[eastcoastFL]

i want it to develop slow so it doesn't recurve

[KWT]

I've got a feeling it won't take too long to develop if it indeed doesn't poof, conditions so far seem to have been fairly favorable in the eastern Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

SAL


Shear tendency

[KWT]

Looks like SAL finished off the last system and also gave Ana a bad time as well...its not too bad of a wave though and clearly has got some sort of curl to it though that may just be an optical illusion.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

The tropical wave coming off Africa is related in this TWD...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.


...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE AFRICA COAST FROM 12N TO 13N ALONG 16W...TO 10N28W TO
10N44W 10N53W TO 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 16W AND
18W POSSIBLY ACCOMPANY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.
$$
MT

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Lets see if convection begins to increase as it moves south of the Cape Verde Islands...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Would really like to know Hyperstorm's take on this one

[KWT]

Not a bad region of convection, need to see how well it maintains itself over the water in the next 24hrs, if it survives that long intact then we could be onto something. I think this one may end up developing but a little further down the line.

[cycloneye]

Something to keep in mind is the Bill has left some cooler waters behind so if this wave develops,it may take some time.

[srainhoutx]

Like around 50 or so.

[KWT]

Yeah it may take this wave a little longer to get going if it ever does. The ECM shows some slight strengthening as it reaches about 50-60W, though even then it keeps it weak.

Looks like the models aren't really forecasting any development with this one.

[ConvergenceZone]

Regardless if this one develops or not, I think there will still be a couple of more waves developing into canes before the end of September...