North of Bahamas

[Aric Dunn]

expect code yellow later today for this area ..

[boca]

Would they put a code yellow along a frontal zone?

[HURAKAN]

We need to keep an eye on this area because development of a low pressure system is likely.

Still ...

Tropical storm development is possible this week along a frontal zone stretching from Florida to the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina. However, wind shear will be relatively high in this region, and anything that develops may end up being extratropical in nature, and would likely move northeastward out to sea.


Jeff Masters - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1319

[HURAKAN]

This buoy east of the northern Bahamas indicates a decrease in pressure during the past few days, certainty showing the arrival of the trough of low pressure.

[OuterBanker]

Both nogaps and cmc (always overzealous) see something. Both graze NC before being swept out. Gfs of course sees nothing (always has trouble initializing weak systems).

[HURAKAN]

418
ABNT20 KNHC 151745
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED
LOCATED ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

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[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[storm92]

Our baroclinic disturbance has about 36 hours to get its act together, before it lifts out to the north...if I read the GFS/CMC/NOGAPS correct. Now watch out when the ridge builds behind it, if ex-Fred is still producing convection!

[gatorcane]

Looks like development east of the Bahamas is becoming increasingly likely. If I were look for development its there where I would look.

You can see a large mess of convection moving east off of FL and a low just east of JAX headed ESE (its sliding east along a front that is washing out)....I see a code yellow or orange going up within the next couple of advisories.

Wind shear continues to be favorable for the Bahamas area:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Hey Aric can you change the subject to remove the Gulf part? It will be all Bahamas or east of the Bahamas here on out if development along the front happens.

Orange? I highly doubt that. Just a broad area of low pressure. Probably going to remain that way in the short term. JMO.

OK not yet orange but did make it to yellow. It was pretty clear to me around Sun. that the Bahamas was the place to watch and here we are now with bears watching

[wxman57]

Low's winding up now. One report of a 35kt SSE wind about 125 miles east of the center. Center near 31.7N/72.1W as of 19Z. FSU phase diagrams indicate asymmetric warm core to start out. I guess NHC isn't planning to bother with it.

[HURAKAN]

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