Tropical Wave west of Cape Verde Islands

[HURAKAN]

Still there

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

If conditions could only become favorable

[HURAKAN]

Satellite imagery and this morning's QuikSCAT pass show a small circulation associated with a tropical wave about 100 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, just off the coast of Africa. The wave has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorms, on the west side of the circulation, and QuikSCAT showed only 20 mph winds in the region. None of the models develop this wave, and it is probably too small to develop into a tropical depression. Still, it is worth keeping an eye on.



Jeff Masters - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1319

[HURAKAN]

Fighting

[HURAKAN]

Still there

[HURAKAN]

Fighting the shear

[BigA]

Is the above mentioned shear easterly shear? It looks like the convection is displaced to the west of the circulation.

[ronjon]

Looks impressive with cyclonic turning and heavy convection. Should be the next INVEST soon.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST

[HURAKAN]

666
ABNT20 KNHC 151148
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Looking a little better.

[HURAKAN]

418
ABNT20 KNHC 151745
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED
LOCATED ABOUT 1020 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Convection is back

[cycloneye]

I wont be surprised if is a invest soon.

[StormTracker]

Hey guyz! A lot of moisture, but yet, a whole lot of shear!!!

[StormTracker]

Great balls of fire!

[HurricaneJoe22]

Goodness gracious, StormTracker!

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160537
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA.
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH