Western Caribbean / SW Gulf Development??

[Ptarmigan]

Just because the season is quieting down, we cannot declare it over yet. If this does develop, I think it will for into Central America or northeast Gulf of Mexico.

[gatorcane]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232340
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

I inserted this image here only because I'm surprised its not even mentioned at all in the TWO. Perhaps if convection maintains a bit more, it will be mentioned in the next TWO.

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing to mention in a TWO

[Emmett_Brown]

Pressures are a little bit low. This buoy at 16.8, 81.5 has a pressure of 29.80, with a NE wind at 13 kts. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[lrak]

Check out this location just West of the blob.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNPC.html

Pressures are a little bit low. This buoy at 16.8, 81.5 has a pressure of 29.80, with a NE wind at 13 kts. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[BigA]

A ship at 14.1, 80.5 (near the southeastern edge of the convection) recently reported a pressure of 29.76, (1007.8 mb) though ship pressure reports are sometimes a bit unreliable.

[Emmett_Brown]

A ship at 14.1, 80.5 (near the southeastern edge of the convection) recently reported a pressure of 29.76, (1007.8 mb) though ship pressure reports are sometimes a bit unreliable.

Check out this location just West of the blob.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNPC.html

Pressures are a little bit low. This buoy at 16.8, 81.5 has a pressure of 29.80, with a NE wind at 13 kts. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

Yup, those are both quite low. So far, only seeing E and NE winds in the area. I agree with Gator and others that the convection to the NE of Hon/Nic border is looking suspicious. If this keeps up, would not be surprised to see an invest tomorrow.

[Nimbus]

29.71 is kind of low even for the bottom of a diurnal pressure YOYO. NHC just needs that time travel buoy technology I guess

[boca]

I need the link to the buoy site to look up in the area. I would like to just click on the buoy to get the info.

[tailgater]

Are you looking for this?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

[gatorcane]

there is nothing to mention in a TWO

Yes perhaps now. But if convection is persisting throughout the night, perhaps by tomorrow at the 8AM. This convection could easily poof by morning, that wouldn't surprise me. In fact I would think that blob poofs by 12 hours from now.

Wind shear tendency across the Western Caribbean is on the decrease, suggesting the upper-level environment is becoming more favorable, but right now there is no surface low so it may not matter. It's likely shear-induced convection at the moment, not that uncommon for that part of the WCAR.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[boca]

Are you looking for this?
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

Thanks I somehow lost that link.

[Derek Ortt]

A ship at 14.1, 80.5 (near the southeastern edge of the convection) recently reported a pressure of 29.76, (1007.8 mb) though ship pressure reports are sometimes a bit unreliable.

you usually need no higher than 1003mb to get a weak TD in the SW Carib this time of year

[Sanibel]

Hard to say if a favorable pocket has developed with the fall.


So many false alarms this year from appearance the wise man will wait.

[Nimbus]

The convection has been fairly consistent off Nicaragua but the lowest surface pressures may be over land. There looks like an upper level anticyclone fanning the convection northeast but the low level steering might just pull the surface low pressure west over Nicaragua.

[Dave C]

If you loop the water vapor there is an upper low right along the north coast of yucatan penensula. Last nite Steve Lyons mentioned a trop. wave in the area and the covection is firing east of the upper low as they move in tamdem to the west.

[CourierPR]

If you loop the water vapor there is an upper low right along the north coast of yucatan penensula. Last nite Steve Lyons mentioned a trop. wave in the area and the covection is firing east of the upper low as they move in tamdem to the west.

the convection in the western Caribbean does not appear to have moved since yesterday.

[IvanSurvivor]

So the area to watch this morning is still right off the Honduras/Nicaraguan border? If so, doesn't appear to have moved much...

[IvanSurvivor]

Is 29.84 in / 1010.50 mb? Just checked the buoy east of the Honduras/Nicaraguan border and it says 29.84. I could be wrong, don't know what I'm looking at...just learning.

[Emmett_Brown]

I dont think we will be seeing development in the next 48 hours. Shear has increased quite a bit:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html