Strong Wave east of Windward islands

[Sanibel]

Slim shot at developing. Very disorganized, and I think shear will be higher in advance of it than models may be depicting. Not concerned about development as long as it lacks a core of heavy convection.

The lesson of 2009 is anything that doesn't develop a deep core and obvious Low center is ruthlessly blown away by the prevailing negativity in the basin.

Who knows? Maybe a weird teleconnect will happen with the WPAC and this will form?

[jinftl]

Right now, this system doesn't have such a core....but neither has any system at this stage of development. No matter the season, obviously a strong core is required to see significant development. The question is....what will happen down the road in terms of development? Just not seeing conditions in the atmosphere (and we all know the sst component is...and will increasingly be....more than sufficient) that are as categorically hostile down the road. Does this mean we have another Ivan here? Doubtful....but could we see 'Grace version 2009'? I wouldn't say 'no chance'.

The focus should be on the conditions that promote or inhibit development....if a system moves into an area of lower shear, even in the 2009 season, that doesn't 'count less' than the same system moving into a similar atmospheric backdrop in prior 'busy' seasons.

Slim shot at developing. Very disorganized, and I think shear will be higher in advance of it than models may be depicting. Not concerned about development as long as it lacks a core of heavy convection.

The lesson of 2009 is anything that doesn't develop a deep core and obvious Low center is ruthlessly blown away by the prevailing negativity in the basin.

Who knows? Maybe a weird teleconnect will happen with the WPAC and this will form?

[cycloneye]

12z CMC abandons the development camp.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[jinftl]

NOAA graphic has been increasing the probability of tropical cyclone formation in that region with each run...



(for 96-hour loop of this graphic, see http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic_loop.html)

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM EDT Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 16N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE WAVE MOSTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS OBSERVED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING CAN
BE OBSERVED IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER A LARGE
AREA FROM 7N16N BETWEEN 34W-46W.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[cycloneye]

The latest image by loop.

Note=Not the best loop in the world but you can see some movement of the clouds.

[gatorcane]

Slim shot at developing. Very disorganized, and I think shear will be higher in advance of it than models may be depicting. Not concerned about development as long as it lacks a core of heavy convection.

Wxman you have to admit this is a very impressive tropical wave for this late in the season out there. The thing is HUGE. Of course without a well-defined center that is a drawback but this thing is trucking west at a pretty good clip and appears to be heading for the Caribbean. In fact this would be the strongest tropical wave to possibly enter the Caribbean ALL season so certainly bears watching. With wind shear gradually decreasing along its path, I can see why NHC is flagging this area.

Indeed over the past couple of hours new thunderstorms are blowing up near where I think the center would form, in the center of the huge blob. Looks to be organizing gradually to me. Looks like it could be bumped to code orange by later today and it could be designated an invest later today also still.

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has a low moving just north of the islands but then fades.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[HURAKAN]

So far, a lot of nothing

[gatorcane]

Hurakan, convection continues to deepen closer to the center of the huge blob. Looking better by the hour. Where are all the members to discuss this area? This is by far the best looking wave we have seen out this way in a while --- and steering suggests westbound or westnorthwestbound for the next several days.

NAM is on board (18Z):

[wxman57]

The 12z ECMWF has a low moving just north of the islands but then fades.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

It doesn't show a closed low, cycloneye. Just has an "L" associated with the wave, as it does with most of the high centers on the map, too. Take a look at the 120hr map, for example. Little "Ls" all over the map. Euro just shows a wave.

This map gives a better representation of whether the EC is forecasting a closed low:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Low-res ECMWF site map with "Ls" all over the map, mostly right next to high centers:

[tolakram]

The long awaited reduction in shear seems to be slowly coming true.

I'm not familiar with El Nino years but based on previous amateur observations I'd say we'll go through a short period of reduced shear for maybe a week??, then the next cold front will come down and may end the season (famous last words).

Like I said though, I really have no clue about El Nino years and this is based on past observations and NOT science. Just to be clear

[OURAGAN]

Convection is growing by the hours and shear is relaxing, may be a real player.

[jinftl]

Most recent satellite image (on top)...compared to image from this morning......let's see if ball of convection near center (9N 40W) persists......system is certainly not 'less impressive' than it was this morning at first glance

Looking potentially 'interesting'....as does the prospect for environmental conditions becoming more favorable for some development down the road

[boca]

If this does become a player will it be a fish or track into the Caribbean?

[HURAKAN]

Not getting very excited because I don't want to be disappointed by shear. Lets see

[BigA]

If this does become a player will it be a fish or track into the Caribbean?

If it forms at or around 10 north, it's going to have to work hard to fish. Nonetheless, the NAM and WRF show it going slightly north of the islands.

[jinftl]

As of latest update (18z), NOAA has once again raised the probability of tropical cyclone formation over the prior update (12z)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN