BOC

[vbhoutex]

there is MLL trying to get started down there, as seen on visible. Right off the coast of Yuc. No signs of anything on the surface but you can see the midlevel clouds fairly well starting to spin. Plenty of low level convergence as well as divergence. Shear still screaming though...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

I don't see any indication of any kind of ML spin in that sat loop. I could be missing something, but all I see right now is a possible elongated trough. Still watching it closely though. I never say never in the tropics!!

[lrak]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMVR.html

NNW 29mph, thats a stiff breeze, and the pressures along Texas and Mexico are super high. The central gulf already has a good swell almost all the way across West to East..Coastal flooding for sure. Its not all weather the moon is helping out.



COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
311 PM CST THU NOV 5 2009

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ...

.THIS STATEMENT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE COASTAL BEND.


TXZ242>247-060600-
/O.NEW.KCRP.CF.S.0002.091108T0000Z-091109T1200Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
311 PM CST THU NOV 5 2009

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MAINTAINING
A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER WAVES OVER THE GULF WATERS AND INCREASE THE
TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. WITH ASTRONOMICAL
HIGHER TIDES OCCURRING IN EARLY NOVEMBER...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS LIKELY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE EXPECTED...OR ABOUT 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA
LEVEL CAUSING FLOODING OF AREA BEACHES. HIGH SWELLS WILL LEAD TO
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND ALSO.


$$

TMT

[lrak]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1202.shtml?

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Where will this low go, SE Texas, or Mexico, then up the coast? I guess shear is all over and no one is getting excited about this mess. I can't believe this disturbance has been in the BOC for almost 2 weeks now and only moved a little north. Seems like a record

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055 strong winds for days. I've checked all the buoys and an East fetch is across the entire GOM.

If this was August

[vbhoutex]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/061202.shtml?

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Where will this low go, SE Texas, or Mexico, then up the coast? I guess shear is all over and no one is getting excited about this mess. I can't believe this disturbance has been in the BOC for almost 2 weeks now and only moved a little north. Seems like a record

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055 strong winds for days. I've checked all the buoys and an East fetch is across the entire GOM.

If this was August

Agree with the last sentiment. Where it will go depends a lot on two things. First is how fast and/or strong is the incoming trough from the West? That is the main feature that will draw it North as it develops. Also the shear generated ahead of the incoming trough will tend to keep development slower. The other factor is the high pressure to the East of us now and where it is setting up as this "low" comes North. If it asserts its' strength and positions itself further South and West it could lead to a more Northerly track as opposed to a more NEly track that one would expect at this time of year. If Ida moves North more quickly she could also be at least a bit player in possibly keeping this feature in the W GOM as opposed to a move more towards the C GOM coast. ALL GOMers need to be monitoring this one simple due to the possibilities of excessive rainfall, something most of us do not need!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/061202.shtml?

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 85W. A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GALE-FORCE WIND
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Where will this low go, SE Texas, or Mexico, then up the coast? I guess shear is all over and no one is getting excited about this mess. I can't believe this disturbance has been in the BOC for almost 2 weeks now and only moved a little north. Seems like a record

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055 strong winds for days. I've checked all the buoys and an East fetch is across the entire GOM.

If this was August

Agree with the last sentiment. Where it will go depends a lot on two things. First is how fast and/or strong is the incoming trough from the West? That is the main feature that will draw it North as it develops. Also the shear generated ahead of the incoming trough will tend to keep development slower. The other factor is the high pressure to the East of us now and where it is setting up as this "low" comes North. If it asserts its' strength and positions itself further South and West it could lead to a more Northerly track as opposed to a more NEly track that one would expect at this time of year. If Ida moves North more quickly she could also be at least a bit player in possibly keeping this feature in the W GOM as opposed to a move more towards the C GOM coast. ALL GOMers need to be monitoring this one simple due to the possibilities of excessive rainfall, something most of us do not need!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Good analysis David. This is a very tricking setup. A baroclinic low can do a lot of damage along the coastal areas (coastal flooding and high winds etc...). Tomorrow will likely be an interesting day. I would not be surprised to see Gale Watches hoisted for parts of TX and LA Coastal Areas. Bears Watching IMHO.

[lrak]

I see a hint of a spin at about 17.5n 94w? The shear maps are indicating a less hostile enviroment in the extreme WGOM.

[srainhoutx]

E-mail from Jeff Lindner/HCFCD...

Significant weather event for the NW Gulf of Mexico this weekend and the entire Gulf next week as Ida comes into play. Awful late in the hurricane season to be addressing such issues in the western Gulf of Mexico...but I suppose stranger things have happened.

Discussion:
Strong upper level trough advancing into the western US while pressures lower within an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. Strong easterly flow has developed across the entire Gulf of Mexico with mid Gulf platforms gusting to near gale force this morning. Widespread gale force conditions will develop across the entire central and northern Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday as pressures lower and high pressure over the SE US tightens the pressure gradient. Could see sustained winds of 40-50mph over the Gulf waters by Saturday night. Complex situation develops with respect to incoming western trough and incoming Gulf system. Still not sure what form the Gulf system will take (1. an open surface trough 2. a closed surface low). I will continue to side with the weaker open trough solution given that there is no well defined circulation and a lack of deep convection. GFS and NAM focus the moisture with this feature off the coast while the CMC and EURO bring the full brunt of moisture inland across SE TX and SW LA. Still fairly early to side with either solution although the drier GFS solution looks slightly more likely at this point. Still given the lift with the trough and strong 300mb divergence progged for Sunday afternoon numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible...although the heavy rains may remain offshore.

Coastal Impacts:

Fairly significant coastal impacts will be felt. Long fetch strong easterly wind of 30-40mph will build large long period 8-15 feet Gulf swells. These swells will begin to arrive on the coast later today and increase on Saturday. Lunar tides are already running 1-2 feet above normal and incoming large waves will add additional water and trap the high tides on the coast. Total tides will run 3.5-4.5 feet above normal. Current tide forecast show a maximum of 4.6 feet at Galveston Pleasure Pier Saturday evening and 4.3 ft at Freeport. Local warning criteria is around 4.5 feet and we will be very close to overtopping coastal protection systems with these forecasted levels. Given the heavy erosion from Ike and nearly complete loss of dune protection tides of 4.0 feet may flood portions of Bolivar, the west end of Galveston Island, and portions of Surfside and NE Brazoria County. Within Galveston and Matagorda Bays tides of 4.0-4.5 ft will result in flooding of low lying coastal roads especially around Clear Lake. Tides should begin to come down Monday.

Ida:

Ida should move back over the warm Caribbean waters this afternoon. There is little deep convection left with the large circulation although W Caribbean buoys have been showing 25-35kt winds north of the suspected center.

Track:
What a mess on what should be a fairly straight forward late season track out of the SW Caribbean...it can never be that easy! Short term short wave ridging over the SE US ahead of the western US trough will impart of steadily NNW to NW track toward the Yucatan channel and then into the SE Gulf of Mexico by Monday. After Monday the deep layer trough driving the cold front through TX will be near Ida and should capture the system and swing it NE into FL. Climatology strongly supports this track. Other option is that Ida is sheared apart with the upper level center moving towards FL and the highly weakened low level circulation becoming trapped under the surface high building south over TX and the low level center is left over the Gulf to meander or is pushed SW. The CMC blast Ida on northward very quickly with a LA landfall prior to the trough getting into the region...this is not likely. Current NHC track shows Ida moving into the SE Gulf and then turning NE toward the west coast of FL.

Intensity:
The hurricane forecasting models (GFDL and HWRF) really want to intensify the system into a hurricane over the Caribbean and SE Gulf. SHIPS is much more reserved and will follow the weaker guidance given 20-30kts of forecasted wind shear over the NW Caribbean Sea and SE Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear greatly increases over the Gulf after Monday and expect Ida to shear apart or be quickly carried NE. Additionally, water temps. in the Gulf have cooled as we are now in November. Will follow the NHC thinking of a tropical storm the entire time...although it may be a fairly large tropical storm and very capable of moving a lot of water. Strong pressure gradients to the west of the system could support widespread TS/gale conditions over a large portion of the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Could see a fairly significant storm surge generated to the right of where the center crosses the coast given the expanding wind field over the Gulf of Mexico and this is still highly possible if the system becomes ET prior to US landfall. ET systems in the eastern Gulf in the cold season months have produced significant storm surge events on the western coast of FL.

[lrak]

Wow, 50mph winds from a none tropical system, this is a strange season for sure.

And I still see that spin illusion down there and it looks like its moving slowly wnw.

[vbhoutex]

I see a hint of a spin at about 17.5n 94w? The shear maps are indicating a less hostile enviroment in the extreme WGOM.

I see what you are talking about Karl. What I think you are seeing is thunderstorms blossoming and then getting their tops blown NE as opposed to a ML spin. I can see why some might think it is a MLC trying to form, but I don't see that yet. However this develops it appears that SE TX and/or SW LA may be in for a rainy blustery Sun./Mon. With everything going on in the WGOM and NW Caribbean, this may turn out to be a very interesting week in the Atlantic basin.

[lrak]

Cool, thanks for clearing that up vbhoutex. I'll go back to work now...LOL. I've got lots of skoolin but can't figure out weather to save my life

[KatDaddy]

Quite a weather event looks to be unfolding across the GOM. This brings back memories of Juan 1985. Not that we will a hurricane in the GOM but coastal flooding and TS force winds in November will interesting to say the least.

[srainhoutx]

Very interesting setup. Baroclinic low, advancing trough with a Cold Front and a tropical system interacting to become a big mess for folks along the GOM. Almost reminds me of a Perfect Storm senario. Something tells me we are looking for a very windy and possibly wet late weekend and early next week.

[wxman57]

Wow, 50mph winds from a none tropical system, this is a strange season for sure.

And I still see that spin illusion down there and it looks like its moving slowly wnw.

Not too uncommon for a west Gulf low, Karl. These frontal lows typically produce a good 30-35 kt winds north of the frontal boundary and very little wind in the southern semicircle. It's going to be VERY rough offshore for the next 4-5 days. Get your surfboard ready on the lower TX coast!

[Ptarmigan]

Quite a weather event looks to be unfolding across the GOM. This brings back memories of Juan 1985. Not that we will a hurricane in the GOM but coastal flooding and TS force winds in November will interesting to say the least.

How was Houston affected by Juan? I was too young to remember it. This weekend looks to be interesting. Like the nice weather while it lasted. It was hazy this morning. Some rain would be welcomed, so we get more nice days.

[KatDaddy]

Juan brought TS winds to the SE TX as far W as Victoria. We had some rain...2" in Pearland. Peak gust at Galveston was 60mph. Several days of 35-45mph winds with higher gusts. Victoria, TX peaked at 54mph. Juan became a typical subtropical/extratropical system as it looped across LA. Most of the winds were very far from the center. The mets on the board can give us more details as well as checking out the Houston NWS tropical cyclone section. LA was pounded with massive flooding.

[gboudx]

Official report on Juan can be found here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim/juan/

[Ptarmigan]

Juan brought TS winds to the SE TX as far W as Victoria. We had some rain...2" in Pearland. Peak gust at Galveston was 60mph. Several days of 35-45mph winds with higher gusts. Victoria, TX peaked at 54mph. Juan became a typical subtropical/extratropical system as it looped across LA. Most of the winds were very far from the center. The mets on the board can give us more details as well as checking out the Houston NWS tropical cyclone section. LA was pounded with massive flooding.

Prolonged wind event. Wow. That's even longer than Ike.

[srainhoutx]

Another thing about Juan was the amount of Coastal Flooding that occurred. If I recall the W end of Galveston Island (Jamacia Beach and Surfside) along with Bolivar Penisula had real problems. I will add that this setup is becoming more interesting as time goes on. Looking at the big picture you can see all the "players".
1. Upper Low near Baja
2. BoC area of disturbed Weather
3. Ida moving N heading into the S GOM
4. Cold Font heading SE from the Pacific NW

All equal a forecasting mess IMHO

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

[Ptarmigan]

Another thing about Juan was the amount of Coastal Flooding that occurred. If I recall the W end of Galveston Island (Jamacia Beach and Surfside) along with Bolivar Penisula had real problems. I will add that this setup is becoming more interesting as time goes on. Looking at the big picture you can see all the "players".
1. Upper Low near Baja
2. BoC area of disturbed Weather
3. Ida moving N heading into the S GOM
4. Cold Font heading SE from the Pacific NW

All equal a forecasting mess IMHO

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/sa ... g&itype=wv

Hmmmm, could this be the "Perfect Storm" for GOM?

[lrak]

Wow, 50mph winds from a none tropical system, this is a strange season for sure.

And I still see that spin illusion down there and it looks like its moving slowly wnw.

Not too uncommon for a west Gulf low, Karl. These frontal lows typically produce a good 30-35 kt winds north of the frontal boundary and very little wind in the southern semicircle. It's going to be VERY rough offshore for the next 4-5 days. Get your surfboard ready on the lower TX coast!

Waxed them up last night! I'm actually a litte nervous....LOL. Its going to be BIG and sloppy, plus I'm a desk jockey and not in greatest shape for such a big TX swell. After the front it should clean up I hope, thats when this old body will probably attempt it. Derailed, back to topic.

And Ptarmigan I was thinking the same thing. Watch out oil rigs!